You have To Love The BBC and EA - Spring Bounce

geoffky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

One day someone will explain the difference between asking prices and selling prices to you, and you'll have one of those "Ohhhhhh" moments.;)

explain!!!!:)

dopester

Emy1501 wrote: »

Will all depend on whether those coming to the market need to/are keen to sell and whether they are prepared to accept lower prices.

Some owners will be need to sell. Will be under some pressure to sell, and will cut their asking prices and accept lower offers.

Whatever price owners who are in serious-seller mode, who do find lower prices the way forward to get on with selling their homes for whatever reasons they need to sell them, agree to accept from buyers... will help bring down market values for other owners who aren't budging on price. And also set a market value in mind of buyers of similar property. (Don't flame me - just theory).

I've not looked at Rightmove for quite some time, and I'm shocked at how many houses seem to be coming to market since the beginning of the year.. especially the last few weeks. With Property Bee as the guide on recent entries.

I've just done a search on ME17, the Wilson's own stomping ground, toggled to sort by highest price (because top of the market can be telling), and the first ten pages... so many new recent additions. If you're a would-be buyer, something exciting is really about to happen now. Or conditions are set in motion for it anyway.

2009 is not the end of the house price crash. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

This is not trying to stir something up with others.. just my point of view.

ME17
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^1616

dopester

Strap yourself in. The crash is here!

Or at least the beginning of some really substantial falls in value to come over this year then next. :rotfl:

I've just been checking out my main locations of interest to buy in... and the number of new properties that have come on recently, is quite astonishing. From houses at lower end in terms of price, right through to the very top end.

In each of my locations (quite highly desirable areas) a fair proportion of these new entries have got to quick STC.. but we'll see. Also more reductions in price (property-bee) than I've seen of older listings for quite some time, with the promise of more price reductions to come... pressured by other sellers who are prepared to cut in order to sell.

RICS claim homeowners selling in a ‘dash for cash’

April 13th, 2010

According to the Express, a Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) report will today claim that many homeowners are in a rush to sell their houses before the toll of post election cuts hits the economy and wrecks the housing market.

RICS are saying that people are so uncertain about the future that they are flocking to the estate agents in order to offload their bricks and mortar before it becomes a millstone around their necks.

The fear is that, whichever flavour of political party wins the election, the economic position of the country can only decline as cuts bite, jobs are lost and taxes rise. There is also the spectre of possible rising interest rates, as the only realistic way from 0.5% is up. Already some ex-two earner families are putting their houses on the market as one partner has lost their job and they are surviving on one wage.

But the potential buyers are still not there or are pulling out at the last minute as the level of commitment dawns on them and they question their ability to keep the house in any upcoming economic problems. They may also be pulling out because, at the end of the day, they cannot get the mortgage they require.

This may well be the trigger for house price falls across the country as the number of sellers has risen to its highest level for three years and some estate agents are seeing record numbers of listings. The property portal Rightmove has also seen its biggest number of new properties for 18 months.

http://www.economicvoice.com/rics-claim-homeowners-rushing-to-sell/5008789

Emy1501

dopester wrote: »

Some owners will be need to sell. Will be under some pressure to sell, and will cut their asking prices and accept lower offers.

Whatever price owners who are in serious-seller mode, who do find lower prices the way forward to get on with selling their homes for whatever reasons they need to sell them, agree to accept from buyers... will help bring down market values for other owners who aren't budging on price. And also set a market value in mind of buyers of similar property. (Don't flame me - just theory).

I've not looked at Rightmove for quite some time, and I'm shocked at how many houses seem to be coming to market since the beginning of the year.. especially the last few weeks. With Property Bee as the guide on recent entries.

I've just done a search on ME17, the Wilson's own stomping ground, toggled to sort by highest price (because top of the market can be telling), and the first ten pages... so many new recent additions. If you're a would-be buyer, something exciting is really about to happen now. Or conditions are set in motion for it anyway.

This is not trying to stir something up with others.. just my point of view.

ME17
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^1616

The issue will be though how many need to do this.

Ive seen the number of properties for sale in my area rise by 50% since the beignning of the year but many of these properties are coming on at asking prices close to 2007. An example is a chain free property which was on 330K at the end of 2008 it did not sell and was then up for rent. Its now back on at 359K and has been for the last 2 months. I als know some who tried to sell in 2008 who could not sell who now has the property back on the market to try and take advantage of 2010 prices.

There is no doubt when you look at the RICS graphs many of them are following the patten of late 2007 but then we had higher interest rates, bank happy to repossess etc meaning people needed to sell. The market is a different place now.

The next 3 months will be interesting as we will start to see in my opinion how many of these new seller are willing to accept lower offers and exactly what effect this will have on prices.

zappahey

chucky wrote: »

yet another one that doesn't understand the concept of effective demand

ILW wrote: »

Please explain.
Thanks

Emy1501 wrote: »

Will all depend on whether those coming to the market need to/are keen to sell and whether they are prepared to accept lower prices.

How does that explain effective demand?

Emy1501

zappahey wrote: »

How does that explain effective demand?

Hello Mr Mctavish

Are you now expecting prices to fall as there are increased numbers of sellers?

The above was the original question. I assumed chuckys meant effective supply rather than demand.

dopester

Emy1501 wrote: »

The issue will be though how many need to do this.

Ive seen the number of properties for sale in my area rise by 50% since the beignning of the year but many of these properties are coming on at asking prices close to 2007.

True enough Emy. And if it's not a significant amount of sellers who are prepared/able to cut their asking price in order to sell, against a background of QE, UK interest rates at their lowest ever level for many hundreds of years... loads of supports like rescue schemes, political pressures on lenders to lend..

..then there will be substantial numbers of buyers ready to compete with each other, such as mbga9pgf and DaddyBear, at the first sniff of a £10K-£50K saving on old prices (depending on the typre/value/area of the property). That might prevent anything too rapid. Until the first few waves of these buyers in the wings have all just about been sucked in.

Those who remain in a position, with deposit, qualify for mortgage.. will provide significant value support, in competition with other buyers who've patiently - throughout this year - probably.

If after the General Election some changes are forced to be put in place with cutbacks, many a support kicked away, or even an interest rate rise (which I'm not particularly counting on)... it may speed things up. It's still collapsing in on itself but at a slow rate due to all the futile prevention measures to stop market correction.

Emy1501

dopester wrote: »

True enough Emy. And if it's not a significant amount of sellers who are prepared/able to cut their asking price in order to sell, against a background of QE, UK interest rates at their lowest ever level for many hundreds of years... loads of supports like rescue schemes, political pressures on lenders to lend..

..then there will be substantial numbers of buyers ready to compete with each other, such as mbga9pgf and DaddyBear, at the first sniff of a £10K-£50K saving on old prices (depending on the typre/value/area of the property). That might prevent anything too rapid. Until the first few waves of these buyers in the wings have all just about been sucked in.

Those who remain in a position, with deposit, qualify for mortgage.. will provide significant value support, in competition with other buyers who've patiently - throughout this year - probably.

If after the General Election some changes are forced to be put in place with cutbacks, many a support kicked away, or even an interest rate rise (which I'm not particularly counting on)... it may speed things up. It's still collapsing in on itself but at a slow rate due to all the futile prevention measures to stop market correction.

I know a few Accidental STR's and pretty much all have bought back in by now. I think the average STR is few and far between now and I expect the bank of mum and dad type FTB to slow down soon.

I suspect there reasonable falls but I dont expect to see too many until rates start to rise probably late this year or early next year and until the serious cuts come in next April.

brit1234

Well I want to know who these people are who will trigger this EA spring bounce.

I have a deposit, a well paid secure gov job, top credit rating and still pretty priced out. All I hear on the news is estate agents talking up the market with price rises. In this economic climate I just can't see it. I also here estate agents blaming banks for not lending money which they haven't got. Surely after the election a few home truths can come out.

ILW

brit1234 wrote: »

Well I want to know who these people are who will trigger this EA spring bounce.

I have a deposit, a well paid secure gov job, top credit rating and still pretty priced out. All I hear on the news is estate agents talking up the market with price rises. In this economic climate I just can't see it. I also here estate agents blaming banks for not lending money which they haven't got. Surely after the election a few home truths can come out.

When you say priced out, do you mean you cannot afford any property, or is it a matter of you cannot afford the type of property you desire in the area you want?