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Debate House Prices
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You have To Love The BBC and EA - Spring Bounce
Comments
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IveSeenTheLight wrote: »So in your opinion, when did the data become unreliable and what level would be the catalist for them to become reliable again?
Anything based on low transactions should be taken with a pinch of salt. How is it reflective of the UK as a whole?0 -
No. They will fall because prices based on 5x income are not sustainable anymore. Those days are gone. FTB are still struggling to get on the ladder and without them there is no foundation
Hasn't this been discussed many times before?
Multiple household incomes / shared ownership, increasing population (meaning higher earners will be able to outbid lower earners for the available propert)
As long as effective demand is greater than effective supply, there will be competition for properties and thus a likely increase in price for properties.
Curb the demand (meaning less people buying) or increase the supply (meaning more properties built / rennovated) will result in properties reducing in price.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Anything based on low transactions should be taken with a pinch of salt. How is it reflective of the UK as a whole?
I ask in a different way then, what level of transactions are required in order for the data to be reliable for you?:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
No. They will fall because prices based on 5x income are not sustainable anymore. Those days are gone. FTB are still struggling to get on the ladder and without them there is no foundation
You've basically summed up the whole problem in one sentence. If you're earning under £18k you really need to climb up the corporate ladder a bit first (i.e. get a job that doesn't involve handling the burgers and someone might be prepared to lend you some money).
£18k x 2 people = £36k x 5 = £180k.
If you're on £18k a year there's no way on Earth you should have a £180k house. However the Gen Y 'I demand it all for minimal effort and it is my right to have it and I want it NOW!' brigade would have to believe that is all that is available and anything smaller won't be able to house their BMW and 50" plasma that mummy bought.
There's plenty of places out there for first time buyers well within their price range. The main problem is that young people today aren't prepared to:
a) work
b) start off small
They want to jump straight on the middle of the ladder for doing sοd all.0 -
The local EA's in the nearest town have a reduced stickers on nearly every property in their window display.
Not a single one has "Price Increased due to Spring Bounce" why is this?
The high street retailers always use that ploy to increase sales
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Because shops and services always announce and advertise discounted products because it makes people feel as though they are getting a good deal. They would never announce that they are increasing their prices as it would put people off buying.
This is pretty much the most basic rule in sales. But you know this, right?
Yes, that is absolutely true which is why house prices aren't rising at the level certain people would like us to believe.
They're being reduced in most cases, because the sellers are caught chasing the market down.0 -
Doire, still waiting......
Just answer the following questions.....- How low are transactions today?
- What is todays volume of transactions as a percentage of the levels of transactions both in 2007, and after the last crash ended in 1997? (try to use transactions data, not approvals data, but if you must use approvals then be sure to discover, and adjust for, the different method of reporting approvals net of cancellation)
- What number of transactions are required for average prices to be statistically significant? And why?
- Why are falling prices on much lower transactions more accurate than rising prices on far higher transactions?
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hello Mr Mctavish
Are you now expecting prices to fall as there are increased numbers of sellers?
Depends on what happens to the numbers of buyers.
In 2008 we know that the imbalance between supply and demand was such that prices fell.
In 2009 we know that the imbalance between supply and demand was such that prices rose.
Rising supply could lead to rising prices, if the numbers of buyers also rises. Or it could lead to stagnation if supply and demand equalise, or to price falls if supply rises and buyers decrease.
At the moment all we know for sure is that supply rose, but so did demand.
I do not expect supply to rise enough, or demand to fall enough, for prices to fall significantly this year. Nor do I expect prices to rise significantly this year, +3% to +7% range seems most likely.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Yes, that is absolutely true which is why house prices aren't rising at the level certain people would like us to believe.
They're being reduced in most cases, because the sellers are caught chasing the market down.
One day someone will explain the difference between asking prices and selling prices to you, and you'll have one of those "Ohhhhhh" moments.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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