Hilarious! People in my area are increasing their asking price!

StevieJ

dopester wrote: »

And: with a General Election coming up, more cuts will be coming afterwards whoever gets in, in my opinion. I'm sorry if you see that as part of my doling out 'frightening posts'. Only this morning one newspaper article I read was attacking Labour for pumping out money to keep the bad times coming, and delaying the cuts right up to the General Election.

And John Major's damning piece again this morning doesn't suggest that cuts are going to be avoided.

You really will have to change your reading habits :eek:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

dopester wrote: »

Especially if I'm wrong, which I could be. Even with spending cuts to come, and other significant changes, maybe house prices will defy my logic, .

There is still risk in the housing market, even I'll admit that. But in the real world we quantify risk both by likelyhood and also by impact.

The likelyhood of low impact events tends to be high. The likelyhood of high impact events tends to be low.

For example, the event that triggered the housing market crash was a near catastrophic failure of global credit markets. Banks failed or became technically insolvent, governments had to step in because cash machines came within hours of running out of money. Lending came to an almost complete standstill. Liquidity froze up, almost overnight.

This was the equivalent of the once in a million years volcano, meteor, or earthquake that is capable of causing the end of civilisation. Very, very high impact, very, very low frequency of occurrence.

The chances of that same event now re-occurring, or of another similarly high impact event occurring immediately afterwards, are vanishingly small. One in a million kind of small.

So we are left with the low impact, but high likelyhood events. The things discussed all the time on here. NI rising by a percent. High earner income tax going up to 50%. Stamp duty rising on million pound houses. Unemployment increasing by another couple of hundred thousand. The replacement of relatively cheap money with slightly more expensive money to governments or mortgage lenders. Interest rates rising by a percent or two. etc etc etc

But none of these things even remotely comes close to having the same impact as a catastrophic failure of the global financial system on house prices. We stepped up to the brink of Armageddon, and house prices fell by just 20%, before immediately recovering half those losses in one of the fastest recoveries in history. They did so because of the overwhelming supply shortage of housing in this country.

The fundamentals of supply and demand are weighted so heavily in favour of prices rising, that it took a once in a generation event to make them fall, and even after falling, they rebounded more strongly than at any time in history.

It is therefore immensely improbable that any of the remaining likely risk factors will have any significant impact. A few more unemployed, an extra percent or two on taxes, continued constrained lending, etc, may slow down the rises, but there is little chance of them causing further significant falls.

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There is still risk in the housing market, even I'll admit that. But in the real world we quantify risk both by likelyhood and also by impact.

I don't agree with everything you say in the same way that I don't agree with everything dopester says (and I'm sure you two feel the same about some of my posts). But it's decent posts like this that make other posters look childish and insecure when they just call you a troll or post a facepalm in response to your posts.

I still don't think house prices will rise and rise though. And the amount of time it's taking to paint this damn kitchen I'm seriously wondering whether renting a place would have been a better idea...

sabretoothtigger

For example, the event that triggered the housing market crash was a near catastrophic failure of global credit markets.

the housing market crash triggered a near catastrophic failure of global credit markets


The credit suddenly withdrew because investments should have been safe became very unsafe. Pension funds were invested in very dodgy housing investment vehicles

So literally peoples whole life savings were put in jeopardy because they were willing to give credit to housing not vice versa


I dont think uk housing relates to usa exactly but in terms of finance its greatly influenced and Britain as a country, people and government borrows money from the world, etc

This was the equivalent of the once in a million years volcano, meteor, or earthquake that is capable of causing the end of civilisation. Very, very high impact, very, very low frequency of occurrence.

The chances of that same event now re-occurring, or of another similarly high impact event occurring immediately afterwards, are vanishingly small. One in a million kind of small.

unfortunately these were not natural or random events. Governments deliberately manipulated housing and finance in general.

The risk is still there because government is still there pulling puppet strings on the markets causing erratic movements in future I believe




Bottom line for me would be that currency is more risky then housing but be careful on finance as this where the danger lies past and present

shane42

houses have been selling for over asking price for sometime now in my area s/e , and they are selling quick, with some exceptions of course,even beach huts and garages are now selling for more than they did in 2008 so people muct have plenty of spare cash

buglawton

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

....
This was the equivalent of the once in a million years volcano, meteor, or earthquake that is capable of causing the end of civilisation. Very, very high impact, very, very low frequency of occurrence. With big references to the recent financial crash.

The chances of that same event now re-occurring, or of another similarly high impact event occurring immediately afterwards, are vanishingly small. One in a million kind of small...

see further above for full post....

if you believe that then you should read
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

where the author sees systematic patterns in some kinds of disaster where humans (and maybe computer systems/modern global communications) are involved

Some people say there's no such thing as a coincidence... where humans are involved there's no such thing as a random disaster (IMHO of course)

nollag2006

StiflersMom wrote: »

You've proven my point exactly.

A cowardly way to squash a discussion that isn't going your way.

I note that you have been thanked in 85 posts, yet only 15 of your posts remain, most of which consist of the insightful and witty words "Abuse Report Received "

Someone who has had at least 70 posts deleted by the mods, really has an awful cheek to report others.

Oh well --- I'm sure muppet number two "rewired" will be along shortly to thank you

Too right - these nuisance posters should be banned, and the sooner the better

nearlynew

I love rewired.

nollag2006

nearlynew wrote: »

I love rewired.

No surprise there.

His commentary is similar to yours: uninspiring, one sided, and pointless.

Doctor_Gloom

nollag2006 wrote: »

Too right - these nuisance posters should be banned, and the sooner the better

Hold on a minute. The only person likely to get banned is the one breaking the rules, not the person reporting the breaking of the rules.