Looking to 2010...

System

When people say "removing the stimulus" do they mean stopping QE or withdrawing all that cash out of the market again?

I would imagine the former would stop instantly and wouldn't make a difference, but if someone said "right now we're having that 200bn back as well" then that would obviously put us back where we started, and thus would be pointless.

System

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Ok, I'm a little confused by the blue line.

And if it's 6 months in advance, howcome the blue line is lined up with the red line?

Should the red line not be in 2010 by now?

C'mon it's on the same page...

Figure 3. Annual change in prices YoY. Comparison of the Halifax YoY and an estimated YoY using the Kalman HPI shifted forwards by six months, i.e. the red line is produced six months before the blue line is published and thus serves as a predictor.

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

C'mon it's on the same page...

Yes, so I can't see a prediction can I.

All I can see is them telling me they were right, Hamish telling me they are predicting 18% HPI or something, but can't actually see a prediciton.

Anyone can draw something to show they were right after the event. I'm not saying this is the case, but thats what the picture displays.

System

I think Hamish was showing you their previous predictions as evidence of them being right, not the current ones.

As he says, their predictions are the red line.

Figure 3 = future predictions, figure 2 is the previous predictions overlayed on MoM data.

They can't "cheat" and do it after the event because it's updated every month.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, so I can't see a prediction can I.

All I can see is them telling me they were right, Hamish telling me they are predicting 18% HPI or something, but can't actually see a prediciton.

the Kalman Estimation method is a tool that is used to calculate prices.
it's an algorithm in this case it's been used to predict future house prices.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Anyone can draw something to show they were right after the event. I'm not saying this is the case, but thats what the picture displays.

yeah, yeah VI bla, bla, bla and the whole world is against the HPC Cult

Graham_Devon

LOL, so a prediction place is proved right, saying they predict 6 months in advance, but they can't show a predicition.

LMAO. Brilliant.

I predicted the same. I will draw a chart to show it, however, I must say, I got the bottom better than they did.

treliac

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just seen this on the BBC website, about where prices may go in 2010.

Amongst the genereal comments, such as the CML not actually giving a forecast as the market is too volitile, we have a range of opinions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8386796.stm

A wide variety of opinions there - one there to suit everyone. You just have to pick your favourite. :rolleyes:

However, the article concludes with:-

What seems unlikely to change much is the supply of mortgage funds to potential borrowers.
Most first time buyers still need to put down a 25% deposit and just under two thirds of all mortgage deals on offer still specify this.

Some dude from Nationwide was on telly earlier suggesting that the supply of cash buyers, who have been around this year, are now drying up.

I still maintain that we haven't seen the necessary correction yet, thanks to govt intervention holding back the tidal wave. Once we get to the latter part of 2010, past the election, we'll start to see reality hit.

And I don't belong to a cult and I don't have vested interests. In fact, HPI would benefit me personally!

System

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL, so a prediction place is proved right, saying they predict 6 months in advance, but they can't show a predicition.

LMAO. Brilliant.

I predicted the same. I will draw a chart to show it, however, I must say, I got the bottom better than they did.

Graham I know you're not this stupid, just pompous and stubborn.

Figure 3 = prediction.

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Graham I know you're not this stupid, just pompous and stubborn.

Figure 3 = prediction.

Wheres figure 3?

Ahhhhhh

Found figure 3 now.

NOW it makes sense. That really was me being stupid. I hadn't seen the actual site.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Wheres figure 3?

The dotted line?

If so, wheres the 18% HPI and a mini crash must be imminent.

I really am stupid if you want to call it that on this one. Not being stubborn. Hamish stated they predict 6 months in advance and are predicting 18% in 2010.

I can't see either a 6 month prediction or 18%.

I can see a dotted line which predicts (if thats what it is) over 3 years, not 6 months, and even that 3 year prediciton doesnt equal 18%.

HPI and YoY HPI are different things and don't tell you the same percentage increase/decrease.

who said a mini crash is imminent?