MSE News: UK economy out of recession – just

doire_2

inspector_monkfish

10:20 26Jan10 RTRS-UK GILT FUTURES HIT ONE-MONTH HIGH AT 116.10 IN WAKE OF WEAK UK GDP DATA
10:30 26Jan10 UK gilts jump after weak Q4 GDP

LONDON, Jan 26 - British gilt futures jumped more
than half a point to a one-month high on Tuesday after data
showed the economy crept out of recession at the end of last
year, growing at a much weaker rate than analysts had expected.

The Office for Nationals Statistics said GDP grew 0.1
percent between October and December, well short of forecasts
for a 0.4 percent gain and below even the lowest forecast in a
Reuters poll for 0.2 percent growth.

By 1023 GMT, March gilt futures were 54 ticks up at 116.17,
the highest since December. Analysts said a move above key
resistance at 115.95 may have accelerated the climb.

Interest rate futures were as much as 12 ticks up on the
strip as dealers scaled back their expectations for when the
Bank of England might start raising interest rates.

In the cash market, the yield on 10-year gilts was 6 basis
points down at 3.846 percent, also the lowest since Dec. 21 and
narrowing the spread against Bunds to 66 basis points -- the
tightest in a week.

inspector_monkfish

Generali wrote: »

I'm gonna have to start charging you know.....

sorry fella, brief explanation above (in bold).....

tomterm8

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Do you have any link to this, it seems somewhat unlikely bearing in mind annual growth rates in Japan during the 1990's

See http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/opinion/04krugman.html . I was talking about preliminary growth reports.


Edit: Thanks, Generali and Monkfish, for the translation. All that retracement stuff was confusing me, but I never have really understood technical analysis, which always seems to involve drawing pretty pictures on a graph. Unfortunatly, every technical analyser seems to draw different pictures.

lostinrates

ruggedtoast wrote: »

, most of which they clearly dont understand.

the not understanding bit is why I (used to) find this board useful. Understanding should not be a prerequisite to posting, the forum is about learning about money.

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

I'm gonna have to start charging you know.....

Mates rates, please? (or payment in kind....how's Lady?)

dealsearcher

It is clear this government manipulates figures. Even the head of government statistics has said so.

0.1% with statistical variation taken into account is, as near as damn it, zero. But you wait and see the Labour electioneering reaction when people say so: "You should rejoice! Gordon has taken you out of recession!". :doh:

Batchy

your all missing the point, recession or no recession the economy is only 95% of what it was over 18 months ago... at the rate of 0.1 or even 0.4 per Quarter. we will never CATCH UP where we was heading before the recession. And we are around say 10% behind where we should have been.

People say we wont return to normal until 2013... but what is NORMAL? BOOM or BUST? We are in Normal... this is how it is, until there is a recovery, not being in a recession is not a recovery, its the right direction, but with all the fiscal stimulus and government debt, the balance is delicately swinging one way or another. The IMF has already said, without government stimulus continuing, we will slip back straight away. IMO, when the government STOP backing everything to the hilt, car scrapage, QE, and LOW interest rates... We are not in a STABLE position. Making material decisions now that affect the rest of your life are KEY... Differentiate... train and educate if you can, improve your future. Buying a house NOW or next year, or the year after will not be MISSING THE BOAT, there is no GRAVY CHAIN... the speculating has come and gone, no one, including the banks will be getting there fingers burnt this decade, not like the last decade.

Hence... stabily is what im looking for... recession or no recession.
Stable interest rates, not those guaranteed next movement to be a rise
Stable growth, hardly since we expected so much but got so little.
Stable inflation
Stable jobs, with certainty
Stable pay rises... not pay cuts
increasing employment, not fudged with those forced into part time postions (ie two jobs or even 3)
Stable manufacturing, with those not moving sites abroad, to india, china etc.

LONG WAY TO GO YET FOLKS, keep those tin hats ready!! ;-)

Batchy

dealsearcher wrote: »

It is clear this government manipulates figures. Even the head of government statistics has said so.

0.1% with statistical variation taken into account is, as near as damn it, zero. But you wait and see the Labour electioneering reaction when people say so: "You should rejoice! Gordon has taken you out of recession!". :doh:

when he gets us back the 10% GDP he has lost... I will rejoyce...

When he personally pays back all the debt he has spent on wasted public services ... I will rejoyce... or he can just give the UK their gold back that he sold for pennies... When Gordon leaves office, will the UK be a stronger UK or weaker UK than when he took over... if so, I will rejoyce... but alas...

I know the answers to all the above... they arn't going to happen... so I wont be rejoycing...

Generali

lostinrates wrote: »

Mates rates, please? (or payment in kind....how's Lady?)

Lady is doing very well and sends her regards. She's enjoying the hot weather I think Lots of finding little hollows to 'nest' in.

Interest rate futures were as much as 12 ticks up on the
strip as dealers scaled back their expectations for when the
Bank of England might start raising interest rates.

GTS:

A particular type of derivative notionally used to hedge against future rises in interest rates but probably more used speculatively by banks and others trying to make a profit changed price in such a way as to show that the market for that derivative thinks it's less likely that the rate of interest paid on Gilts (not the base rate AIUI) will increase in future and if it does increase then it will be by less than previously supposed.

Whaddya reckon IM? That about right?