MSE News: UK economy out of recession – just

doire_2

Car scrappage scheme and 200 billion printed by the Clown and he gets 0.1% :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

DaddyBear

Printed £200bn
VAT cut
Car scrappage scheme

That all equalled -0.1 to 0.3%????

All of the above has now stopped (assuming they will stop
printing now inflation is rising).

Sustainable???????? It's not even a confirmed recovery yet.... The final revision could just as easily be down.

tomterm8

Hm, it's pretty pathetic. Lets not kid ourself, Japan during its depression in the 1990's had quarters where it was growing at 12% annual rate, if this is a depression it's not unusual to have cyclical recoveries with exceedingly high growth rates. Even if its a recession, normal recoveries usually have well above trend growth rates. That's part of the difference between depressions and recessions.

Cataloging this recession shows GDP has already fallen by more than it did in the UK during the early years of the great depression, and in any recession since the 1960's.

I predicted 0.4% GDP growth this quarter. Even if growth rate gets revised up, it's not going to be revised that high.

So, in short, after spending a deficit that is a record high, unprecidented monetary easing, and a massive GDP gap which should encourage record growth... we don't have much of a recovery. The money supply is still shrinking. And we are still the slowest growing major economy in the world.

Wooohooo.

inspector_monkfish

09:53 26Jan10 UK Q4 GDP could be even worse?

04:52 EST - The initial Q4 GDP estimate as bad as it was vs expectations (0.1%-0.9% range, 0.4% consensus) is roughly based on 50%-60% of the hard data to hand, with industrial production & trade (two key components) still to impact the next GDP update (Feb 26) which could tip the prelim Q4 fig in either direction - a potential nightmare for the govt if one or both are weak?

The UK Treasury has tried to put a measured gloss on the fact the UK exited recession with Darling perhaps the most vindicated. The Treasury statement said the govt is right to be confident (PM Brown was very upbeat last week on the likely growth story), but also right to be cautious on the recovery.

Looking at the breakdown, the relative 'weakness' for the below f/c 0.1% outcome looks on electricity, gas water that contributed a negative -3.3% q/q, -9.3% y/y. Incidentallly, ONS data again questions PMI surveys etc.

chucky

that 0.1% could always be revised downwards or even upwards in the coming months - despite reading about conspiracy theories and printing money bla, bla, bla - it is good news never the less.

DaddyBear

tomterm8 wrote: »

Hm, it's pretty pathetic. Lets not kid ourself, Japan during its depression in the 1990's had quarters where it was growing at 12% annual rate, if this is a depression it's not unusual to have cyclical recoveries with exceedingly high growth rates. Even if its a recession, normal recoveries usually have well above trend growth rates. That's part of the difference between depressions and recessions.

Cataloging this recession shows GDP has already fallen by more than it did in the UK during the early years of the great depression, and in any recession since the 1960's.

I predicted 0.4% GDP growth this quarter. Even if growth rate gets revised up, it's not going to be revised that high.

So, in short, after spending a deficit that is a record high, unprecidented monetary easing, and a massive GDP gap which should encourage record growth... we don't have much of a recovery. The money supply is still shrinking. And we are still the slowest growing major economy in the world.

Wooohooo.

But house prices are rising.... that's all that matters here in the UK, everything else can go to hell as long as Hamish Mcpublic feels a little bit richer each month.

doire_2

chucky wrote: »

that 0.1% could always be revised downwards or even upwards in the coming months - despite reading about conspiracy theories and printing money bla, bla, bla - it is good news never the less.

Will your childrens children think so?

inspector_monkfish

09:52 26Jan10 Better UK housing market fortunes contrast with weak GDP

09:52 GMT - After the UK Q4 GDP disappointment (see our 9.34GMT) some better news comes from the the housing market as [UK MORTGAGE APPROVALS] more than double in Dec compared to same period a year ago, according to the British Bankers' Association (BBA). The number of loans approved for buying a house jumped to 45,897 above Nov 2009 44,968 and up 102.2% vs Dec 2008.

Remortgaging figures were also better in Dec 2009, rising to 23,480 from 22,567 while equity withdrawal rose to 19,237 after 20,081. BBA also said households' unsecured borrowing contracted throughout the year, particularly on personal loans adding that after paying down debt, it
appears people have sought to rebuild their savings.

inspector_monkfish

doire wrote: »

Will your childrens children think so?

Is Chucky a Grandad ?

Wookster

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

09:52 26Jan10 Better UK housing market fortunes contrast with weak GDP

Yup - rising house prices are an illusion of wealth.