MSE News: UK economy out of recession – just

Former_MSE_Natasha

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"The economy just about managed to grow in the final three months of 2009, but only by a less than expected 0.1% ..."

Read the full story:
UK economy out of recession – just

These threads have been merged to avoid duplication. Thanks to inspector monkfish for the original post.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2009.

Note however, that previous quarters have been revised upwards once the full data is in.

:j

:beer:

inspector_monkfish

09:30 26Jan10 UK Q4 GDP much weaker than expected

LONDON, Jan 26 - Britain came out of
recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, but only just and at
far weaker growth rate than expected, official data showed on
Tuesday, highlighting the economy still remains fragile.
Most analysts predict the Bank of England to halt its 200
billion pound asset buying programme next month but these
figures are likely to boost expectations that any monetary
policy tightening is still some way off.
While news that Britain is finally out of recession may
boost consumer confidence, the sluggish recovery is still
likely to weigh on Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown's chances
of winning a parliamentary election expected in 100 days.

*******************************************************

KEY FIGURES FOR PRELIMINARY Q4 GDP

Q4 09 Q3 09 FCAST
% QQ +0.1 -0.2 (-0.2) +0.4
% YY -3.2 -5.1 (-5.1) -3.0

KEY POINTS
- First rise in QQ GDP since Q1 2008. The ONS said the peak
to trough fall in output between Q1 2008 and Q3 2009 was 6.0
percent, much greater than that seen in the recessions of the
early 1980s and 1990s.
- The ONS said overall GDP fell 4.8 percent in 2009, the
biggest fall since records began in 1949.
- The ONS said the increase in output was mainly due to
increases in distribution, hotels and restaurants and government
and other services.

Dan:_4

but, but, I thought this would turn into a depression.

Another blow for greedy bears after a cheap house.

kennyboy66_2

God help us if people think that growth of 0.1% is something to celebrate, nay gloat over.

Deluded doesn't do them justice.

bernard_shaw

Error bars ± 0.1-0.2%

nollag2006

Bang goes my STR strategy (along with every other STR idiot gambling with their home)



What does a sustained recovery mean for the price of gold and other speculative minerals?

inspector_monkfish

09:30 26Jan10 UK PRELIMINARY 4Q GDP +0.1% ON QUARTER; -3.2% ON YEAR
09:30 26Jan10 UK 4Q GDP WAS FORECAST +0.4% ON QTR, -2.9% ON YR
09:30 26Jan10 UK ECONOMY CONTRACTS 4.8% IN 2009, BIGGEST FALL ON RECORD




LONDON -The U.K. economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2009, emerging from a deep recession that began in the second quarter of 2008.

The Office for National Statistics said Tuesday that compared with the third
quarter, gross domestic product in the three months to the end of December
increased 0.1%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP fell 3.2%.

The expansion will come as a relief to the U.K. government, which forecast a return to growth at the turn of the year. The news could also boost Prime
Minister Gordon Brown ahead of national elections that must be held by June 3, with recent polls suggesting that the opposition Conservative Party's solid lead
is narrowing.

But the Bank of England has warned that the recovery is likely to be slow and fragile given continued strains in the banking system and the need to reduce high levels of public sector and household debt.

Brown said Monday that his government won't start paring back government spending this year, saying efforts to do so would imperil the recovery.

The expansion had been expected, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones
Newswires last week estimating that gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the three months to the end of December.

Economists surveyed by the U.K. Treasury in January expect the economy to grow 1.4% this year, having contracted 4.7% in 2009. The treasury forecast at the time of December's pre-budget report that the economy is likely to grow 1% to 1.5% this year and grow 3% to 3.5% in 2011.

Some economists are more upbeat, with U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasting Friday that the U.K. will grow 1.9% this year and 3.3% in 2011, outpacing France in both years and Germany in 2011.

But while the most severe recession since the Second World War may be over, its impact will linger for some time to come. The unemployment rate is likely to continue rising for many months to come, as will business insolvencies.

The BOE has said the output gap--or the difference between what the economy can produce and what it is producing--will remain large for a long time.

And government debt is also likely to rise for years to come, with the
treasury forecasting an increase to just under 77% of GDP in the fiscal year
ending March 2014 from under 40% before the recession began.

The U.K.'s return to growth follows that of a number of other large,
developed economies. Germany, France and Japan all began to grow again in the second quarter of 2009.

easy

I'm afraid I'm very sceptical about this. My view is that the govt manufacture the figures that they want the media to pass on to us.

I don't believe it.

vigilaire

Well that's all right then......

doire_2

Brilliant Gordon has saved the day :rotfl:

Lets all run out and spend, spend, spend :T

No wait a minute. What about that big debt that has to be paid back?