MSE News: UK economy out of recession – just

Generali

tomterm8 wrote: »

Thanks, Generali. Happy Australia Day... whatever that is... to you, too.

It's the day that White People celebrate the start of the process that culminated in taking Australia off the people already living in Australia.

They do it by drinking cold beer and watching fireworks made by Chinese people.

ruggedtoast

I think its a shame that this board has ceased to bear any relevance to its topic name. Its degenerated into a cacophony of nincompoops jeering and braying about changes in statistical data, most of which they clearly dont understand.

Really2

Generali wrote: »

It's the day that White People celebrate the start of the process that culminated in taking Australia off the people already living in Australia.

They do it by drinking cold beer and watching fireworks made by Chinese people.

We did a similar thing to The US and other countries. The UK has a long tradition of helping natives off their land and living responsibilities.

But now they call it invasion, murder and theft. Rotters.;)

Generali

tomterm8 wrote: »

Can we have the Generali translation service onto this post, I don't know what it's talking about. Thank you.

This one's a toughie, apologies if I miss some of the finer points:

Originally Posted by inspector monkfish
10:05 26Jan10 GBP/USD: Talk of Very Good Size UK Clearer After UK Q4 GDP Data


London, January 26.

[We] have been told that a UK clearer has sold a cumulatively estimated yard of cable since the 09:30GMT unveiling of the disappointing 0.1% UK Q4 2009 GDP growth number (<TGM42331>). This flow has helped depress GBP/USD by more than three-quarters-of-a-cent to its 1.6120 intra-day low.

Generali's translation service says:

We here at [XYZ News Wire Service] have been told that one of the Big 4 British Clearing Banks has sold £1,000,000,000 to buy US Dollars instead. This was apparently prompted by the UK GDP figures being a little disappointing. This sale of a lot of pounds into the market has pushed the FX rate down by 0.75c to £1 = $1.6120.

Article:

Sterling bear targets include 1.6090 (yesterday"s low) and 1.6072. The latter
level is a 61.8% Fibo retracement point of the ascent from 1.5832 (Dec 30 low) to 1.6459 (Jan 12 high). 1.6077 was last Friday"s low.

GTS:

The writer thinks that Sterling will fall further in value vs the US Dollar from here. 2 places it could fall to are £1 = $ 1.6090 which is the lowest point the trade was at yesterday or perhaps £1 = $1.6072 which is the number that a person using something really weird called the Fibonaccia Retracement has said may (or may not) happen. The Fibonaccia Retracement is a way of drawing lines on a graph of previous price movements in order to come up with a soundly based but incorrect prediction of future price movements.

Masomnia

SingleSue wrote: »

To my mind, it's all rather akin to somebody being in their overdraft for the last 2 years and then suddenly one month, showing a credit of a tiny amount....regardless that they may be back in their overdraft within a very short period of time and not actually on the road to recovery.

Of course, if the next 2 quarters are also positive, then that will show recovery..it could just be a blip like the once in a bluemoon out of overdraft scenario.

It's worse if anything, it's like being in overdraft for 18 months, with less money at the end of each quarter; now we have slightly more money this quarter than the last, only we're still way into our overdraft.

GDP grew a little, but it's still way below what it was. I believe this is what Gen means when he talks about stil being in recession until GDP gets back to its peak, even if no one agrees with him

kennyboy66_2

tomterm8 wrote: »

Hm, it's pretty pathetic. Lets not kid ourself, Japan during its depression in the 1990's had quarters where it was growing at 12% annual rate, if this is a depression it's not unusual to have cyclical recoveries with exceedingly high growth rates. Even if its a recession, normal recoveries usually have well above trend growth rates. That's part of the difference between depressions and recessions.

C.

Do you have any link to this, it seems somewhat unlikely bearing in mind annual growth rates in Japan during the 1990's

inspector_monkfish

tomterm8 wrote: »

Can we have the Generali translation service onto this post, I don't know what it's talking about. Thank you.

a big clearing bank, dissapointed with the GDP numbers, decided to offload a Billion Quid...

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

good point well made - i think my conspiracy theory of Princess Di living in Zanzibar with Elvis could be a winner too.

i'm seeing a trend here though - if all of these numbers are fiddled when they were positive.
how accurate where they when they were negative?

No the numbers are just fiddled. If you dont know that, god help you.

inspector_monkfish

Sterling Futures are up 11 or 12 points all down the strip......

Generali

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Sterling Futures are up 11 or 12 points all down the strip......

I'm gonna have to start charging you know.....