House prices will FALL by up to 10% in 2010, top economists warn

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

no - i agree with a lot of what Hamish says but there are parts that i don't think are for me. he probably does the same in reverse.

i agree with what you say on occasions but as you can see i've discussed where i disagree.

I was talking about his opinions to me in this thread rather than generally.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

so you're agreeing that the HPC ghetto on those threads got their predictions all wrong too then

I do not have much time for the HPC forum. To many speculators on there and since the likes of Hamish were trolled its a pretty pointless place. I like to read both sides of the argument myself.

I do not pay attentions to predictions really especially those more than 3 months in advance. Its near impossible to predict what wil happen in 12 months time. You may guess right but thats about it. Its nothing more than being a professional gambler in my opinion.

julieq

Apart from Mewbie's thread which was I suspect supposed to be ironic yet managed to get the prediction 100% correct, you'll find some astonishingly accurate predictions all through those threads and others. In between these are wild eyed predictions of doom which are IDENTICAL to the ones in this year's thread.

It's about the combination of worst cases, the selective use of numbers to imply things are more serious than they were, and wishful thinking. Which is really what I've been saying all year.

About the economy tanking, yes, of course it tanked this year. And it came back. The chances of it tanking again are receding, the underlying crisis is working its way out of the system and there is growth in the markets we serve. We have a far more competitive currency now. It won't be altogether plain sailing, but I think we're a long way from the apocalypse. Sorry.

nembot

Really2 wrote: »

Low IR was predicted since September last year as IR always drops in a recession, you had to be a complete fool to think they would not drop.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1194127&highlight=
(I was prepairing for prolonged low rates on the above link.)

No one said low IR would stimulate house purchases, it is done to stimulate the economy.

Do you think they set BOE base rate for the benefit of house prices?

I don't see anywhere in that thread that IR's will come down to .5% and stay there, can you elaborate?

Do you think that IR have not affected house sales at all?

ess0two wrote: »

Where would we be if it had'nt happened?QE was'nt all about houses etc think of the bigger picture.

I know exactly where we'd be, hence my question...

julieq

nembot wrote: »

Julieq, do you think if the BOE and the Goverment hadn't intervened we'd still be in the same position now - or are you just conveniently ignoring these facts?

Where are the bullish threads predicting the 180bn QE (allegedly) and low interest rates that will save (read, delay the inevitable) housing market?

Erm, why is a surprise that there was intervention exactly? We are where we are because they took action, they were hardly ever going to sit on their hands and let the country collapse, were they?

And there are plenty of threads like that incidentally, including one from mid 2008 predicting 0.25% rates.

ess0two

nembot wrote: »

I don't see anywhere in that thread that IR's will come down to .5% and stay there, can you elaborate?

Do you think that IR have not affected house sales at all?




I know exactly where we'd be, hence my question...

Where would we be then?

Really2

nembot wrote: »

I don't see anywhere in that thread that IR's will come down to .5% and stay there, can you elaborate?

We never said 0.5% but it is clearly discussed rates staying low for some time (even the bearish people).

Would you spend £2500 getting out your current deal and setting up a new one if you were not thinking falling IR Rates?

I think any regular on here would say low rates were being discussed sept/oct last year.

I personally thought down to around 1.5%-2% just shows how deep the recession was.

But this title amuses me still. If only hey.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1251599&highlight=

Another global IR drop. 0.5% on the cards.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I'm not making anything up.

You are making lots of things up, like what I said, for starters.

Hamish says economics have no effects on house prices and its all about supply and demand.

It is always all about supply and demand. There is nothing else.

We know the supply side is short. But you fail to see that other things, such as the availability of finance, unemployment, etc, can impact demand.

The house building versus population growth and household formation stats establish the clear NEED for additional housing to be built.

The mentality of British people to own their own house, the levels of employment, or job security, etc, establish the DESIRE of people to buy.

And the levels of mortgage availability and cost of borrowing, enable that NEED and DESIRE to be translated into effective DEMAND.

He says we need 250K new homes next year so therefore prices will either rise or stay stable next year regardless of where the economy goes as we know 250K homes will not be built. Thats what I disagree with. Therefore you either agree with him or you do not.

Actually, I repeatedly say that prices may well fluctuate in the very short term. WHilst I think prices will rise overall next year, based on supply shortages and need for more housing, I do not rule out small falls as being inconceivable, as it is possible further financial shocks may impact demand. It's just unlikely.

IF, and it's a big IF, we see mortgage lending reduce over the next year, which would limit demand, then prices could well fall. But they will not fall for any other reason.

Over the mid term to long term, very significant price rises are inevitable however, unless we build a lot more houses than we do today.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

why do they continually discredit themselves over and over

Why do you insist on acting like a complete tool over and over?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why do you insist on acting like a complete tool over and over?

now, now Graham... there's no need to get angry :rotfl:
you'll probably claim that i started on you next like the little victim that you are

listen chumpster - i like laughing at how thick you and slow you are.
do you have an issue with that?

btw - here are a couple of your predictions....
FTSE to go to 2,250 - it's currently at 5,361
House prices to fall 50%-70% from peak - we know what happened there

there are more but you've made yourself look more than a fool on plenty of occasions - which is why from your past predictions you're not the best positioned to make a call on what's going to happen in the future.
top bombing chumpster!!