House prices will FALL by up to 10% in 2010, top economists warn

julieq

And let's enjoy this one as well

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1355251

the economy was due to "tank" this year too apparently

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

here you go

but let's leave it Emy - have a good xmas

Remain high is not increase chucky. Maybe you misunderstood me. I believe house prices are high at the moment and therefore if they stay the same next year they will still be high. Theat does not mean they will fall next year or even the year after.

As i say you either believe Hamish or you do not. Its a yes or no answer. I don't believe you do believe Hamish comments but like to argue with people like myself because my opinions may differ from yours.

Merry Xmas to you too.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

And let's enjoy this one as well

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1355251

the economy was due to "tank" this year too apparently

threads like these do make me laugh - it's the same posters (some with their new user names) saying over and over again that the economy is screwed and house prices will crash 50%...

why do they continually discredit themselves over and over

Emy1501

julieq wrote: »

And let's enjoy this one as well

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1355251

the economy was due to "tank" this year too apparently

Unless you have been a sleep for the last year it did tank. Or maybe the 200Billion of QE and the 60+billion bailouts of the banks did not happen?

Do you think the government have another 250 billion plus if it tanks agin next year?

Maybe it wont tank again next year lets hope not anyway.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

As i say you either believe Hamish or you do not. Its a yes or no answer. I don't believe you do believe Hamish comments but like to argue with people like myself because my opinions may differ from yours.

no - i agree with a lot of what Hamish says but there are parts that i don't think are for me. he probably does the same in reverse.

i agree with what you say on occasions but as you can see i've discussed where i disagree.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Unless you have been a sleep for the last year it did tank. Or maybe the 200Billion of QE and the 60+billion bailouts of the banks did not happen?

Do you think the government have another 250 billion plus if it tanks agin next year?

Maybe it wont tank again next year lets hope not anyway.

so you're agreeing that the HPC ghetto on those threads got their predictions all wrong too then

nembot

Julieq, do you think if the BOE and the Goverment hadn't intervened we'd still be in the same position now - or are you just conveniently ignoring these facts?

Where are the bullish threads predicting the 180bn QE (allegedly) and low interest rates that will save (read, delay the inevitable) housing market?

DaddyBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl: :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

They are saying Capital Economics are "top economists"........

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Even by the Daily Mail's low standards of churnalism, that one takes the cake.

One more time with the Capital Economics house price forecast history.....

The evidence says they have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 9 months)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.

So if they are predicting a 10% fall, it's safe to say prices will be rising.

You seriously have too much time on your hands. Shouldn't you be out supporting the economy by spending your giro on useless Christmas tat?

Really2

nembot wrote: »

Where are the bullish threads predicting the 180bn QE (allegedly) and low interest rates that will save (read, delay the inevitable) housing market?

Low IR was predicted since September last year as IR always drops in a recession, you had to be a complete fool to think they would not drop.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1194127&highlight=
(I was prepairing for prolonged low rates on the above link.)

No one said low IR would stimulate house purchases, it is done to stimulate the economy.

Do you think they set BOE base rate for the benefit of house prices?

ess0two

nembot wrote: »

Julieq, do you think if the BOE and the Goverment hadn't intervened we'd still be in the same position now - or are you just conveniently ignoring these facts?

Where are the bullish threads predicting the 180bn QE (allegedly) and low interest rates that will save (read, delay the inevitable) housing market?

Where would we be if it had'nt happened?QE was'nt all about houses etc think of the bigger picture.