House prices will FALL by up to 10% in 2010, top economists warn

the_ash_and_the_oak

I'm pretty ok w rics and capital economics tbh - more interested in the reasoning than the numbers themselves imo

new_home_owner_3

i think they will drop another 50%, its just a matter of time, and i reckon it will be a good 15 years before they recover.........:rolleyes:

StevieJ

Really2 wrote: »

TBF I think a Chartered Surveyors would know more about valuing houses than most considering that is their Job.
Also they will have more hands on experience on what the market is doing in areas.

All predictions are usually wrong but RICS I think have been a lot better than most.
TBF Capital Economics predictions have most probably been the worst, especially when they turned bullish at the peak.

I think you are probably correct considering it is them that decide what the price is, oh except for when the banks were telling them to chop 20% off

new_home_owner_3

StevieJ wrote: »

I think you are probably correct considering it is them that decide what the price is, oh except for when the banks were telling them to chop 20% off

it must be right then:j

chucky

Really2 wrote: »

TBF I think a Chartered Surveyors would know more about valuing houses than most considering that is their Job.

Devonian Forumeconomic Theory has no bounds!!

housesitter

Really2 wrote: »

TBF I think a Chartered Surveyors would know more about valuing houses than most considering that is their Job.

You would wouldn't you.
My father (now retired, early) qualified as a Chartered Surveyor (and had a rather successful career) many years ago and takes the opinion that RICS sold out to HPI as much as anyone else.

Their monthly email bulletins suggest they are not some all knowing magical beast but they certainly have a lot of blood on their hands.

bo_drinker

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

In spite of being bailed out Lending has dried up from the banks. So mortages are bound to become less available and that will, again, have a negative impact on the price of housing as well as rents.

It is going to be tough next year.

This is right but with a shortage of stock I think things will sit stagnent for a long while but if there are movements they won't be up only down

Emy1501

Really2 wrote: »

TBF I think a Chartered Surveyors would know more about valuing houses than most considering that is their Job.
Also they will have more hands on experience on what the market is doing in areas.

All predictions are usually wrong but RICS I think have been a lot better than most.
TBF Capital Economics predictions have most probably been the worst, especially when they turned bullish at the peak.

We are not talking about valuing houses though are we? I assume we are talking about predicting the future of house prices? I cant see why a surveyor would be better at predicting the the future of houses prices when the state of the economy will be the main driving force of where prices go. Most of the predictions I have seen from RICS are done by the chief economist.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I cant see why a surveyor would be better at predicting the the future of houses prices when the state of the economy will be the main driving force of where prices go. .

Because price is driven by supply and demand, without exception.

No matter how bad the economy, if there was only one house for sale in Britain, and one million people wanting to buy it, the price would rise until only the richest of those million could afford to do so.

Surveyors are the lead indicator of supply. They know, before the rest of us, how many houses are being valued for sale and therefore what is happening to supply levels.

So that would be one way a surveyor would be better at predicting house prices than the rest of us..... :rolleyes:

Really2

Emy1501 wrote: »

We are not talking about valuing houses though are we? I assume we are talking about predicting the future of house prices? I cant see why a surveyor would be better at predicting the the future of houses prices when the state of the economy will be the main driving force of where prices go. Most of the predictions I have seen from RICS are done by the chief economist.

Personally I would expect anyone in their own industry to be better at predicting prices for the following year than any one else not in their industry.

I know the patterns and how factors can effect pricing in my industry, so I give surveyors the benefit of the doubt their guess would be more educated than most.

I presume you think you know a bit about your industry? I write reports for the following year so believe me some of us have to predict what is going to happen next year because of our jobs.
Because of their jobs I would rank a surveyor above an economist on house prices personally.
Were RICS further out than most of the "economists" this year on prices?