House prices will FALL by up to 10% in 2010, top economists warn

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Sorry anyone who thinks that if the economy tanks next years house prices will not go with it are mad in my opinion. Of course its highly likely that over a long period they will pick up again but in the short term they will tank.

If we get downgraded or their is a serious threat and QE is not working the last thing the government will be thinking about is keeping houseprices stable.

Given the choice of protecting education/health or keeping houseprices high I suspect the government will let prices go.

Now of course if the economy does not tank and does as well as the government suggests then the supply and demand argument stands up.

that's all very nice but all that you've typed has nothing to do with my post. either my post is wrong or it's right.

but to humour you - the UK economy tanked a few occasions in the 1970s, it had no impact on house prices.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

that's all very nice but all that you've typed has nothing to do with my post. either my post is wrong or it's right.

but to humour you - the UK economy tanked a few occasions in the 1970s, it had no impact on house prices.

The only reason why house prices are not tanking at the moment is because of SMI and alike. people who are 3 months behind on their mortgage increased by nearly 50% between seprtember 08 and 09 and thats with low interest rates. If the government had not been supporting the market they would be tanking now and there would be nothing to stop forced sellers.

As I say if you want to believe that houseprices will remain high next year if the growth forecasts are not met then good luck to you. I do not have the figures for houseprices in the 70's maybe you could explain why they did not fall? Did they fall in real terms? We know that it will be near impossible to inflate our way out of the problems we are in at the moment.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

The only reason why house prices are not tanking at the moment is because of SMI and alike. people who are 3 months behind on their mortgage increased by nearly 50% between seprtember 08 and 09 and thats with low interest rates. If the government had not been supporting the market they would be tanking now and there would be nothing to stop forced sellers.

again that's all very nice but all that you've postedd has nothing to do with my post or either the demand and supply argument that you're disputing with Hamish.

Emy1501 wrote: »

As I say if you want to believe that houseprices will remain high next year if the growth forecasts are not met then good luck to you.

you're making this bit up - I'm not sure where you've got where I said that house prices will remain high next year... I've just stating some facts for you instead of reading the HPC urban myths that the cult prophesies... :rolleyes:

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

again that's all very nice but all that you've postedd has nothing to do with my post or either the demand and supply argument that you're disputing with Hamish.


you're making this bit up - I'm not sure where you've got where I said that house prices will remain high next year... I've just stating some facts for you instead of reading the HPC urban myths that the cult prophesies... :rolleyes:

Of course it does. If the economy tanks and the government cannot support the housing market with SMI it will tank because people will be forced to sell. Therefore the supply and demand argument even if the economy tanks is a rubbish argument. If you believe Hamish then you believe that even if the economy is in the crap nobody will be forced to sell their house.

I'm not making anything up. Hamish says economics have no effects on house prices and its all about supply and demand. He says we need 250K new homes next year so therefore prices will either rise or stay stable next year regardless of where the economy goes as we know 250K homes will not be built. Thats what I disagree with. Therefore you either agree with him or you do not.

julieq

Mewbie had it right this time last year, a prophet crying in the wilderness. And to think we thought it was irony

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=16931313&postcount=26

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

I'm not making anything up. Hamish says economics have no effects on house prices and its all about supply and demand. He says we need 250K new homes next year so therefore prices will either rise or stay stable next year regardless of where the economy goes. Thats what I disagree with. Therefore you either agree with him or you do not.

do you read what you type? you said that i believed that house prices would increase.
the post was in reply to mine - You is me right or is You now Hamish too

Emy1501 wrote: »

As I say if you want to believe that houseprices will remain high next year if the growth forecasts are not met then good luck to you.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

Mewbie had it right this time last year, a prophet crying in the wilderness. And to think we thought it was irony

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=16931313&postcount=26

lol - top bombing Julie!!

not another "bear" that got it completely wrong and still believes that they're the best positioned people to continue preaching the HPC sermon :rotfl:

ps. can you explain aggregate demand to the Devonian Institute of Economics please... they're struggling with that one...

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

do you read what you type? you said that i believed that house prices would increase.
the post was in reply to mine - You is me right or is You now Hamish too

Did I where was that?

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Did I where was that?

here you go

Emy1501 wrote: »

As I say if you want to believe that houseprices will remain high next year if the growth forecasts are not met then good luck to you.

but let's leave it Emy - have a good xmas

julieq

This is quite a good thread too, from last year

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1373909