The weather and the recession.

Really2

tomterm8 wrote: »

The GDP figures which are generally reported are 'seasonally adjusted'.

Did not know that because some economists had argued it we would certainly come out of recession this quarter because of which quarter it was (EG the one with Christmas in)

Not really clear here either it seems to indicate the non seasonally adjusted are available first.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/public_sector_accounts/downloads/Use_of_GDP.pdf

Really2

tomterm8 wrote: »

The GDP figures which are generally reported are 'seasonally adjusted'.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

Got it on the small print they are inflation and seasonally adjusted.

tomterm8

Really2 wrote: »

Did not know that because some economists had argued it we would certainly come out of recession this quarter because of which quarter it was (EG the one with Christmas in)

Not really clear here either it seems to indicate the non seasonally adjusted are available first.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/public_sector_accounts/downloads/Use_of_GDP.pdf

The reason the not seasonally adjusted measure is used for the excessive deficit procedure is that throughout most of continental europe it is the number they report first. It can take a quarter for the seasonally adjusted number to print. The UK national statistics office is very much quicker than many other european nations as it prints the initial seasonally adjusted estimate in about a month. Ironically, this means that for EU purposes we have to use worse data than we have available in calculating the excess deficit.

bo_drinker

abaxas wrote: »

Maybe a stupid q...

But since there is a huge problem with people buying 'tat' as they cant get to places to buy it. Wont this have some effect on next months GDP?

Discuss.

No, they will get the tat even cheaper so get more for their ££ in the tat sales in Jan, and the tat shops start sales now before xmas so the great unwashed don't lose out on the tat fest, the snow won't stop their wanton pathetic tat cravings .
The goods return counters always busy after the big day when they return unwanted tat and go and buy the tat they do want. One of the reasons it's all a waste of time...

wolvoman

Viper_7 wrote: »

They compare this years figures though against last years, and last years was atrocious!
Sure they say it's been the best since 2006, but does it take into account inflation since then?
Sure the figures are up - but they are by no means great.
A percentage increase on previous years cr&p results doesn't make me feel all warm and glowing inside.

I know we all have to spend, but the country is still running and relying on debt.

Isn't the country (not the govt obviously) paying off debt at the moment for the first time in many years?

I know my xmas spending is coming out of the £1k+ less my mortgage is costing right now than it was just about a year ago. I suspect there are many in the same boat (to counter-balance those whose incomes are far below last year's).

Spartacus_Mills

abaxas wrote: »

Maybe a stupid q...

But since there is a huge problem with people buying 'tat' as they cant get to places to buy it. Wont this have some effect on next months GDP?

Discuss.

Stephen Alambritis was on the BBC earlier saying it certainly won't help.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Stephen Alambritis was on the BBC earlier saying it certainly won't help.

It's obviously going to hurt the sales figures for both retail and leisure/hospitality. Quite significantly in some areas.

The timing could not have been worse, the biggest weekend of the year for both.

lostinrates

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's obviously going to hurt the sales figures for both retail and leisure/hospitality. Quite significantly in some areas.

The timing could not have been worse, the biggest weekend of the year for both.

A lot of the stranded ended up in hotels they said on the news....perhaps some make up of shortfall from that?

PasturesNew

I've just seen my first icy windscreen
It's dipped below zero here tonight. Was warm/sunny earlier though, all day. And yesterday. Gulf Stream ftw.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

lostinrates wrote: »

A lot of the stranded ended up in hotels they said on the news....perhaps some make up of shortfall from that?

For a few, yes. But I think overall, it will just have caused havoc to revenues. Not enough stranded to make up for the millions that didn't go out drinking/shopping due to weather.

Remains to be seen if the industry pulls it back with new year and post X-Mas sales.