The weather and the recession.

abaxas

Maybe a stupid q...

But since there is a huge problem with people buying 'tat' as they cant get to places to buy it. Wont this have some effect on next months GDP?

Discuss.

abaxas

Just found this...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article6964513.ece

Maybe it does!

Viper_7

I think next year will be an eyeopener.

Everything you read, and it sounds like the retailers are doing well.
News talks about how busy it is etc, then we find out that again there was no growth despite all the attempts at talking the economy up.
However if you look around, people are not really buying anything, and the items they are are of lower value. Shops have not over stocked this time, and will have a limited number of sale items. The figures will certainly be interesting reading next year and I think we'll see more retailers fold.

Oil is on the increase again - so utility bills will be on the up. VAT is back to the previous level.
BoE can't continue pumping money into the system, house prices are still very much inflated, can't belive there has actually been further increases, again maybe due to talking up the market again.

I'm wanting to move next year to a larger place, but worried that I'll possible lose out, if the market drops as I belive it will.

lostinrates

On the other hnd, I wonder what it does for sales of some things: de icer, icescrapers...wolly hats.

I wonder if more people are taking cabs than riking driving themselves?

I mentioned in jest that people will be doing twice the panic buying: the extra bread and milk not just for Christmas but for ''being snowed in'', but perhaps they do?

Really2

Also on line shopping and then paying delivery also.

I think the over all effect would be small as I am sure they will get there day shopping before the 25th and still blow what they were going too.

tomterm8

abaxas wrote: »

Maybe a stupid q...

But since there is a huge problem with people buying 'tat' as they cant get to places to buy it. Wont this have some effect on next months GDP?

Discuss.

The thing people don't realise is just how large the actual number GDP is. So, yes, there will be financial consequences from a couple of days of snow, but these consequences will be dwarfed by the actual size of the economy, and will not show up on the official figures which are in any case 'seasonally adjusted' to take account of the fact december is cold. There are negative and positive shocks occuring all the time. They don't show up very much, because they cancel each other out to a large extent.

Really2

They estimate £1BN will be spent in the 6 weeks up to Christmas. The government are borrowing around 30X that (basing it on what they borrowed for Nov)

That is borrowing only, not what they spent. kind of shows how small really the Christmas shop is.

But since the GDP figures are done on +/- on the last quarter, Christmas can only help increase GDP as there was not a Christmas last quarter

abaxas

Really2 wrote: »

They estimate £1BN will be spent in the 6 weeks up to Christmas. The government are borrowing around 30X that (basing it on what they borrowed for Nov)

That is borrowing only, not what they spent. kind of shows how small really the Christmas shop is.

But since the GDP figures are done on +/- on the last quarter, Christmas can only help increase GDP as there was not a Christmas last quarter

Is that figure the complete spend? Or just spent on tat?

Really2

abaxas wrote: »

Is that figure the complete spend? Or just spent on tat?

Not that I approve of daily mail links.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235706/Bumper-Christmas-high-street-shops-best-sales-years.html

Is Christmas spending not all just tat in some peoples eyes anyway?

tomterm8

Really2 wrote: »

But since the GDP figures are done on +/- on the last quarter, Christmas can only help increase GDP as there was not a Christmas last quarter

The GDP figures which are generally reported are 'seasonally adjusted'.

Viper_7

They compare this years figures though against last years, and last years was atrocious!
Sure they say it's been the best since 2006, but does it take into account inflation since then?
Sure the figures are up - but they are by no means great.
A percentage increase on previous years cr&p results doesn't make me feel all warm and glowing inside.

I know we all have to spend, but the country is still running and relying on debt.