2010 House Price Forecast + 5% to +10%....

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As other posters have pointed out in this thread, it is entirely possible to believe prices can decline for a few months over this winter, and still rise in total over the course of next year.

Just as they did last year. When they declined from Dec to Feb, and then rose for the rest of the year, ending 5% up for the year in total.

If you have to resort to this type of fallacious pedantry to argue with me, you truly have no case worth arguing.

Way to backtrack. I am not arguing over house prices and if they will or will not rise. You have an inconsistent position and resort to nonsense when called on it. Some of your posts are fine. I agree with you on public sector workers and pay. Some are a mass of contradictions.

nearlynew

mystic_trev wrote: »

So some Economist (I've never heard of) comes along saying House prices will rise 5% - 10% big deal - no doubt they'll be others, probably the same ones who told us prices will have fallen 10% - 20% this year!

Lets face it Economists are the worst predictors of House prices. So how do I know prices will fall next year? I've just bought a house :rotfl:

An economist is someone who will tell you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucky wrote: »

don't start him off again... he'll start to believe what he puts in his posts is true next

Not even Graham is that deluded.

ess0two

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not even Graham is that deluded.

What to dry hump your leg,let him assess the risk and hazards involved first,before taking the plunge.

bernard_shaw

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh really......

Fairly sure it came as a HUGE surprise to all you hpc-ers who were so merrily predicting doom, gloom, plague and pestilence for the housing market this year.

I predicted no such thing... I've only been here since July. Anyway, I thought we were speaking about next year, and there you go again changing the subject.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think we can all agree that fiscal policy will be tightened. However monetary policy is likely to remain wide open for years to come.

Yes - up to a point. Monetary policy will remain as wide open as possible for as long as possible. But the size of that envelope is not in the gift of policymakers, but is, rather, a function of markets.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And do not confuse the lack of issuance of further QE, with the withdrawal of the existing additional liquidity provided by QE.

I haven't.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh, and rising population.
Oh, and rising household formation.

How much will these go up next year?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh, and increasing mortgage availability.
Oh, and decreasing deposit requirements.

The CML are forecasting stability in these areas. If you have contrary information - let us have it!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh, and that ongoing bonfire of the debtors didn't work out so well for you last year, did it?

There you go again going on and on about last year! !!!!!!?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Given George Osbornes article in the paper today clearly laying out Conservative policy for continuing a low interest rate environment for the long term,

I'd like to read what Gideon's got to say, I'm a big fan of his chum Dave. Got a link?

Did you read Dave's "Big Society" speech at the Hugo Young Lecture? I linked to it on the other thread, but here it is..
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/david_cameron_the_big_society_full_speech.html

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I rather suspect you'll be dissapointed on that front next year as well.

As well as what?
(Edit - Ooh Ooh! you made a spelling mistake - that means u'r rong)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's your logic that requires help.....

Man, what is it with you and personal insults?

nembot

Geoffrey Dicks does not own a time machine, his words are therefore meaningless.

julieq

Emy1501 wrote: »

As for predictions an Hamish, I remeber back at the end of 2008 him on HPC predicting 30% falls in total and them HPI from 2010.

And in reality we've had about 30% falls in total and HPI from mid 2009.

So not far away from what happened really. Bit closer than 50-70% falls certainly.

IveSeenTheLight

nearlynew wrote: »

I love rewired.

No you don't, you've not thanked them once

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

As for predictions an Hamish, I remeber back at the end of 2008 him on HPC predicting 30% falls in total and them HPI from 2010.
.

Very true.

At the same time I also called for QE, government intervention, increased liquidity reducing bank margins and increasing mortgage lending, and subsequent price rises as that liquidity impacted on mortgage availability. I stated the government would throw everything including the kitchen sink at fixing the economy in time for the election, and was derided for believing that governments could have any impact on "the markets". Amusingly, HPC is now full of threads blaming Brown and Labour for "stealing their crash". I got the timing of QE wrong by 6 months, and therefore the total fall in prices wrong by 8%, but the subsequent events happened pretty much exactly as I said they would.

It wasn't perfect, but it was a damn sight closer than anything anyone else forecast on HPC.

Which brings us back around to this thread.....

There don't seem to be a lot of bears willing to stick their necks out with a forecast for 2010 along with reasoning why.....:rolleyes:

Although given how wrong they were in 2009, can't say I blame them.:D

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Very true.

At the same time I also called for QE, government intervention, increased liquidity reducing bank margins and increasing mortgage lending, and subsequent price rises as that liquidity impacted on mortgage availability. I stated the government would throw everything including the kitchen sink at fixing the economy in time for the election, and was derided for believing that governments could have any impact on "the markets". Amusingly, HPC is now full of threads blaming Brown and Labour for "stealing their crash". I got the timing of QE wrong by 6 months, and therefore the total fall in prices wrong by 8%, but the subsequent events happened pretty much exactly as I said they would.

It wasn't perfect, but it was a damn sight closer than anything anyone else forecast on HPC.

Which brings us back around to this thread.....

There don't seem to be a lot of bears willing to stick their necks out with a forecast for 2010 along with reasoning why.....:rolleyes:

Although given how wrong they were in 2009, can't say I blame them.:D

I do not remember your QE argument etc to be honest. I remember your normal Supply and demand argument when the economy recovered but not alot more. As for being wrong in 2009 are you trying to tell me that the Bulls were right with their predictions for 2008? I also suspect most were wrong like you about 2009.

As for reasons why a 5-10% rise may not happen I think I have made valid reasons as to why this might not happen.

The reality is Hamish predicting where House Prices are going over a year is pretty is impossible. Its like predicting who will win the Premership, you may predict right one year but its unlikely you will keep getting right because things can changes every few weeks when you tke into account new siginings injuries etc. Its same with House Prices anything can happen to make a prediction look stupid. Therefore there is no point predicting more than 3 months in advance in my opinion. I think this is pretty obvious when you look at most of the so call experts opinions over the last 10 years.

What we do know is the economy is in a very difficult position at the moment and therefore any wanting to predict where prices are going this year are doing nothing more than guessing.

To be honest what I have learned over the last 2-3 years is that when the majority say prices will rise they tend to fall and when they say they will fall they seem to rise.