Which airline is next to collapse?

PolishBigSpender

Lincoln_Imp wrote: »

According to the bookies bmibaby is fav at 7/2 ,Monach a close 2nd at 9/2 (slashed from 50/1)

the reason Monarch’s odds were shortened was because nearly eight out of every ten bets placed over the past week have been on Monarch, which followed a similar pattern to betting on XL Airways last year

As I said, bmibaby aren't going to go bust. They may cease flying, but it won't be 'sudden' like Flyglobespan et al - they'll simply wind the service down.

Monarch on the other hand - I don't really keep track of them, but don't they have quite a healthy charter business? Then again, their service is notoriously dire.

Doc_N

The trouble with the Paddy Power thing is that it becomes self-fulfilling. The odds give rise to doubts in the minds of customers, so they book another airline. Likewise with suppliers etc - they reduce the credit available.

Before too long, the airline has lost so many customers and had its credit cut to such an extent that it goes out of business.

Pollycat

Lincoln_Imp wrote: »

According to the bookies bmibaby is fav at 7/2 ,Monach a close 2nd at 9/2 (slashed from 50/1)

the reason Monarch’s odds were shortened was because nearly eight out of every ten bets placed over the past week have been on Monarch, which followed a similar pattern to betting on XL Airways last year

The point is - Monarch is not just an airline, it has a holiday arm too (ex Cosmos).
Monarch should be compared (as a business) with First Choice, Thomson and Thomas Cook.

Doc_N wrote: »

The trouble with the Paddy Power thing is that it becomes self-fulfilling. The odds give rise to doubts in the minds of customers, so they book another airline. Likewise with suppliers etc - they reduce the credit available.

Before too long, the airline has lost so many customers and had its credit cut to such an extent that it goes out of business.

I agree and I personally think it's irresponsible of Paddy Power to run a 'book' such as this.

cactusdust

Ryanair isn't going anywhere.. so there is no point even mentioning them. They're one of the most successful airlines on the planet- ever, and as the user a few posts above mentioned.. are sitting on billions.

PolishBigSpender

cactusdust wrote: »

Ryanair isn't going anywhere.. so there is no point even mentioning them. They're one of the most successful airlines on the planet- ever, and as the user a few posts above mentioned.. are sitting on billions.

What's actually a good, interesting bet to make is on the possibility of a Ryanair-Wizzair merger. Both have stayed away from each other in Europe and would be an almost perfect fit in terms of route networks. There is some shared ground too - and people shouldn't be surprised if Ryanair attempt to pull off such a move.

Aer Lingus should be mentioned as an airline that shouldn't still be flying independently.

spender

I think Monarch operate a lot of flights for other companies such as Inghams, sometimes Thomas Cook etc. However I have to say I would avoid flying Monarch on any occasion I could. They have the worst cramped seats of any airline. Everyone I have spoken to avoid's Monarch if possible. I also think their package holidays seem very expensive as well.

bagand96

Anyone who thinks Monarch are on their way out knows incredibly little about the UK airline industry; and this shows how rediculous the PaddyPower book is.

PolishBigSpender wrote:

Then again, their service is notoriously dire.

Based on what exactly?

spender wrote:

However I have to say I would avoid flying Monarch on any occasion I could. They have the worst cramped seats of any airline. Everyone I have spoken to avoid's Monarch if possible. I also think their package holidays seem very expensive as well.

Monarch operate A320's in a 180 seat configuration. Thomas Cook, MyTravel (now TC) and First Choice (now Thomson) operate A320's in a 180 seat configuration. Monarch's 757s operate in 235 seats, same as Thomson and Thomas Cook. Granted the long haul aircraft have more seats than most, but Monarch provide the charter aircraft to the specs the holiday company want.

Doc_N

bagand96 wrote: »

Anyone who thinks Monarch are on their way out knows incredibly little about the UK airline industry; and this shows how rediculous the PaddyPower book is.

But the odds will simply reflect the weight of the bets, unfair though that may be to Monarch.

A great shame there's no apparent way of stopping bookies running a book like this. It's not a million miles off the sort of things that almost brought the banks down recently.

bagand96

Doc_N wrote: »

But the odds will simply reflect the weight of the bets, unfair though that may be to Monarch.

A great shame there's no apparent way of stopping bookies running a book like this. It's not a million miles off the sort of things that almost brought the banks down recently.

Of course. At best its distasteful, at worse, well as someone said above its self perpetuating. Consumer confidence etc. Paddy power were right with XL and Globespan, although XL was expected, and Globespan had been badly run for years (although to be fair it appeared they were getting their house in order, although it is proven now that was paper over the cracks).

Just hope that people don't ssee the fact that PP were right before and let it convince them that Monarch or Baby really are next - trading is bad enough anyway without an unfounded knock in consumer confidence. The worst thing is newspapers like The Times and the Guardian running a story about it - lazy journalism, a story out of nothing from newspapers that would consider themselves respectable!

SaveTheEuro

Keep an eye on Japan Airlines (JAL). From BBC News today: “Shares in JAL, which made a loss in four of the past five years, fell to record lows last week as speculation mounted it would file for bankruptcy.”