Bears have taken the wrong course....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

You can have a wonderfully successful career or a hugely profitable divorce, but the value can be whittled away. You have to get two things right; not just one. You have to make the money and then keep its real value; that is, its purchasing power.

You may say that inflation is yesterday's story. True, it is a fraction of what it used to be. But you need remarkable trust in British governments to be completely confident that it won't come back.

And even if inflation were to stay at a mere 2.5pc a year, the value of your cash would halve over 28 years. Cash is not safe. Inflation means it is a slow crushing of your wealth.

All of which brings me to one of the most remarkable things about this astonishing year in investment.

The massive rise in the stock market and the abrupt recovery in the housing market in certain areas of Britain – particularly London – have been achieved in the face of almost total opposition from pundits in newspapers and financial circles.

Your Money has been a notable exception to that consensus view, but I don't think I have lived through a bull market which took place in the face of such an overwhelming opinion that it would not happen.

Even back in the dark days of 1974, opinion moved in favour of a bull market so fast that I remember that call options – a way of betting on a market rise – became phenomenally expensive.

Right now, the same pundits who were wrong six months ago are continuing to offer bearish opinions.

There are a few who occasionally mention something along the lines of "the short term market strength has been surprising but the fundamental problems remain the same and could lead to major downturn anytime soon".

But most of them seem unabashed. They do not apologise for getting it wrong. It is almost as though some of them live in a parallel world where they remain, in some magical sense, right despite the fact that the market has not – for the time being – done as instructed.

They turn a blind eye to the fact that thousands of people are influenced by them and have, as a consequence, missed out on a major bull run.

There is one financial newspaper – which I worked for years ago – which I cannot remember recommending buying shares at any time over the past 35 years.

My guess is that it has always thought it would look knowing and sophisticated by casting doubt on their prospects.

But this has not been clever at all. It has put false sophistication above good advice.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/6394158/Diary-of-a-private-investor-The-bears-have-taken-the-wrong-course.html

Great article....

skap7309

Yawn.

Oh, have one on me - :beer:

ruggedtoast

Desist from this Hamish. Lest I am forced to call you a nob yet again today.

I get no pleasure from it.

abaxas

In terms of economics, everyone tend to be more wrong than they are every right.

It's all pseudo science with a bit of Mystic Meg ontop. But I agree that in the last 2-3 years almost everyone has got it wrong almost all the time. The bears, the bulls and the neithers.

kennyboy66_2

> Rings broker to sell all shares <

Graham_Devon

You should have waited until tommorow to post this Hamish.

Not the best of days to post an article saying how stupid bears are, when optimists have been predicting today to be the end of the recession for around 2 months now.

mewbie_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You should have waited until tommorow to post this Hamish.

He may have ejaculated too soon.

brit1234

Yeap all that huge pile of debt is still there and getting bigger with unemployment over. Everything is hunky dory then, if that all correct can we have interest rates put up because by house savings are losing £1,000s of interest to bail those who over borrowed

Ron2256

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/6394158/Diary-of-a-private-investor-The-bears-have-taken-the-wrong-course.html

Great article....

Why do you hate bears so much Hamish? Is it because they have a different opinion to yours and you can't accept it?
Why do you feel obliged to belittle them or even bully them? Do you feel unsecure? Is this forum an outlet for your daily anger or frustration? Is there something personal you would like to share with the rest of the forum?

Have a break. Have a KitKat Hamish. Please. Please do.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Ron2256 wrote: »

Why do you hate bears so much Hamish? Is it because they have a different opinion to yours and you can't accept it?
Why do you feel obliged to belittle them or even bully them? Do you feel unsecure? Is this forum an outlet for your daily anger or frustration? Is there something personal you would like to share with the rest of the forum?

Have a break. Have a KitKat Hamish. Please. Please do.

That was the Telegraph's headline, not mine....

Perhaps you should redirect your outburst at a national newspaper instead.:rolleyes:

MiserlyMartin

An article of which you are a such a worshipper you feel you have to post it all for us to see. Hamish I really feel you have some ongoing deep rooted personal problems or personailty disorder. You must have in order for you to wish so much hate and misery for those unable or unwilling to buy housing or to those who do not follow your self centred opinions.

Don't start to type back your usual retorts to me. I have a house and I am in the process of moving to a bigger one. Its your attitude, I hope that away from forums in person you are not like this for your own sake.