MSE News: UK economy still in recession

julieq

As I think I said a while ago, there's a recovery from a low base but it's fragile. The key things for us are probably that Germany and the US recovers strongly, they will pull us up with them. And China growing will probably help the US a bit.

So I wouldn't be looking at UK figures at all, look elsewhere for the moment.

You don't get smooth switches from bust to boom anyway, what happens is that the better news starts to predominate over the bad news over a period. There is still bad news. Arguably a bit of a knock back isn't a bad antidote to some of the overexuberance we've been seeing lately.

Generali

kennyboy66 wrote: »

No she will always be the evilist PM.

But, she also brought plenty of good long lasting reforms in.

It will be difficult even for Labour supporters like myself to argue that changes in the last 12 years will prove to be particularly long lasting.

I think the thing lots of people miss about Mrs Thatcher is that she attacked lots of entrenched interests, not just the unions. She also had a go at the professions keeping people out. She allowed professionals to advertise for example which helps new competitors get going. Those were the sorts of reforms that helped the UK economy perform much better in the following years.

I was having a chat with FiL about who was the 'greatest' (not best note) post-war PM and I can't think who it would be possible to put before Mrs Thatcher.

Mr Atlee I suppose would be the Labour-voters' choice but he's a bit grey I think. Mr Blair? He's more of a manager than a leader IMO. A great politician I'll grant you though.

Mr Major would be the choice for most amazingest election victory ever in 1992.

I'm rambling now.....

Generali

julieq wrote: »

As I think I said a while ago, there's a recovery from a low base but it's fragile. The key things for us are probably that Germany and the US recovers strongly, they will pull us up with them. And China growing will probably help the US a bit.

So I wouldn't be looking at UK figures at all, look elsewhere for the moment.

You don't get smooth switches from bust to boom anyway, what happens is that the better news starts to predominate over the bad news over a period. There is still bad news. Arguably a bit of a knock back isn't a bad antidote to some of the overexuberance we've been seeing lately.

The troubles the UK have are two fold:

- big reliance on banking and financial services to keep London going and a big reliance on London to pay the bills for much of the rest of the UK so if banks are coming back, the UK is in trouble
- big Government deficit that has become unsustainable. Government spending at current levels relies on the Government borrowing money over the course of the 'business cycle'. Ask the people on the DFW board what happens if you consistently spend more than you earn.

Those two things make me pessimistic for the near term future of the UK.

michaels

Counter-intuitively recovery abroad may not be all beneficial to the UK - we are already seeing oil prices, shipping rates etc. rebounding which presents problems for the UK strategy of running a huge fiscal deficit and ultra expansionary monetary policy...stagflation via imported commodity inflation plus currency depreciation sound attractive to anyone?!

Still given we are now 6Q of decline in at least we can confirm that Clown was correct when he said Britain was 'uniquely placed....with respect to the recession' :eek:

A quick one for Generali the textbook - official definition of depression?

julieq wrote: »

As I think I said a while ago, there's a recovery from a low base but it's fragile. The key things for us are probably that Germany and the US recovers strongly, they will pull us up with them. And China growing will probably help the US a bit.

neas

We may be coming out of the recesiion... yaaaaayy.

Ohh,. wait.... dooooh..

How frikking stupid are people looking by predicting that we leaving recession to have a 0.6% diff between their predictition and reality?

Who are these chimps running business?? !!

inspector_monkfish

neas wrote: »

We may be coming out of the recesiion... yaaaaayy.

Ohh,. wait.... dooooh..

How frikking stupid are people looking by predicting that we leaving recession to have a 0.6% diff between their predictition and reality?

Who are these chimps running business?? !!

i think its the ones from the PG Tips adverts...

Generali

michaels wrote: »

A quick one for Generali the textbook - official definition of depression?

I don't think there is one.

There's that joke about if you're neighbour loses his job it's a recession, if you lose yours it's a depression.

I think some people reckon it's GDP down 20% or something. That's just a number pulled out of the air.

It's an interesting question though. What makes a recession a depression. I guess it's a recession that impacts on the actual standing of the economy by becoming self-reinforcing. Rather like deflation is the persisitant tendancy for prices to fall, I guess we could say a depression is a persistant tendancy for GDP per head to fall or remain static or below trend (not sure which is best).

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

I don't think there is one.

There's that joke about if you're neighbour loses his job it's a recession, if you lose yours it's a depression.

I think some people reckon it's GDP down 20% or something. That's just a number pulled out of the air.

It's an interesting question though. What makes a recession a depression. I guess it's a recession that impacts on the actual standing of the economy by becoming self-reinforcing. Rather like deflation is the persisitant tendancy for prices to fall, I guess we could say a depression is a persistant tendancy for GDP per head to fall or remain static or below trend (not sure which is best).

They were talking about this n rdio four a few days ago and it made me think of this board. In the opinion of whoever was talking, depression could even be depressed growth, so not even needing to be in recession. He was predicting small growth, leavin recession but remaining in deprssion

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

I was having a chat with FiL about who was the 'greatest' (not best note) post-war PM and I can't think who it would be possible to put before Mrs Thatcher.

The 3 greatest PM's of the last 80 years are formed as much by circumstance as by the indivdual.

Churchills political career would have looked a disaster without WW2
Atlee was the right man for post war
Thatcher had a conviction lacking in other politicians to force changes through. Right person, right time.

sjaypink

robpw2 wrote: »

is the labour goverment keeping us in recession as a ploy to get us spending more

Don't know what you mean- and how you mean....? Why would we spend more because we are still in a long recession rob?