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MSE News: UK economy still in recession

edited 23 October 2009 at 10:46AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
121 replies 1.7K views
Former_MSE_NatashaFormer_MSE_Natasha Former MSE
672 Posts
edited 23 October 2009 at 10:46AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Hopes for an end to recession were dashed today after new figures showed the economy shrank for a record sixth quarter-year in a row..."

Read the full story:
UK economy still in recession

OfficialStamp.gif


ps. this thread started before the news story was published so has been merged to avoid duplication. Thanks to inspector monkfish for the original post.
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Replies

  • 09:30 23Oct09 UK preliminary Q3 GDP shows shock fall

    LONDON, Oct 23 - Britain's economy contracted
    unexpectedly in the third quarter of this year, squashing hopes
    of an end to the recession and instead making the current
    recession the longest on record, official data showed on Friday.

    The Office for National Statistics' data will be closely
    eyed by the Bank of England, which meets on Nov. 4-5 to decide
    whether to expand its 175 billion pound quantitative easing
    scheme.

    *******************************************************

    KEY FIGURES FOR PRELIMINARY Q2 GDP

    Q3 09 Q2 09 FCAST
    % QQ -0.4 -0.6 (-0.6) +0.2
    % YY -5.2 -5.5 (-5.5) -4.6

    KEY POINTS
    - Britain's economy has now contracted for six successive
    quarters, the longest unbroken string of quarterly declines in
    GDP since records began in 1955.
    - The ONS said there had been a peak-to-trough fall in
    output of 5.9 percent during the current recession, compared to
    6.0 percent between Q2 1979 and Q1 1981.
    Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
    (MSE Andrea says ok!)
  • 09:35 23Oct09 GBP/USD: Slumps on Shock 0.4% Contraction in UK Q3 GDP

    October 23.

    Cable has slumped by more than a cent to an intra-day low two pips shy of
    1.6487 (yesterday"s low) on the back of the ONS disclosure that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% in Q3. This means that the UK is now in the longest recession on record. A 0.2% rise was the consensus forecast.

    The Q3 GDP shock increases the probability that the BoE will enlarge its GBP
    175bn QE Asset Purchase Programme on Thursday week (Nov 5). GBP/USD was trading circa 1.6970 when the BoE upped its APP by GBP 50bn from GBP 125bn on August 6, amajor GBP-negative.
    Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
    (MSE Andrea says ok!)
  • purchpurch Forumite
    9.9K Posts
    ✭✭✭✭
    making the current
    recession the longest on record

    At least that's one thing to remember Gordon Brown for !!!! :eek:
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • 09:30 23Oct09 UK PRELIMINARY 3Q GDP -0.4% ON QUARTER; -5.2% ON YEAR
    09:30 23Oct09 UK 3Q GDP WAS FORECAST +0.1% ON QTR, -4.7% ON YR
    09:30 23Oct09 UK ECONOMY SEES RECORD 6TH STRAIGHT QUARTER OF CONTRACTION
    09:30 23Oct09 UK ECONOMY PEAK-TO-TROUGH CONTRACTION NOW 5.9%
    09:34 23Oct09 UK Econ Contracts For Record 6th Straight Quarter




    LONDON - The U.K. economy saw a record sixth straight quarter of contraction between July and September, confounding economists' expectations that a deep recession was nearing an end.

    In its preliminary estimate Friday, the Office for National Statistics said
    that output fell 0.4% in the third quarter from the previous one and was 5.2%
    lower on the year.

    Economists had expected the U.K. to grow by 0.1% in the third quarter, which would have been the first three months of growth since the start of 2008.

    The ONS said there had been a peak-to-trough decline in output of 5.9% since the recession began in the second quarter of 2008. That is just short of the 6.0% peak-to-trough decline recorded in the recession of the early 1980s, the ONS said.

    The output decline will be a major blow for Prime Minister Gordon Brown's
    Labour government at a time when many other major economies, like Germany, Japan and the U.S. are showing signs of emerging from recession. Brown's government faces an election by mid-2010.

    The biggest drag on growth in the third quarter came from the distribution,
    hotels and restaurants section, which helped produce a 0.2% decline in total
    services output.
    The total drop in production industries in the third quarter was 0.7%.
    Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
    (MSE Andrea says ok!)
  • Just think how bad it really would be if the government had not started printing money!
  • lemonjellylemonjelly Forumite
    8K Posts
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    ✭✭✭✭
    But, but...it's all getting better. Green shoots. HPI? What happened?
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • lemonjelly wrote: »
    But, but...it's all getting better. Green shoots. HPI? What happened?


    Someone went and let the truth out the bag ! :eek:
    Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
    (MSE Andrea says ok!)
  • Graham_DevonGraham_Devon Forumite
    58.6K Posts
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    Put "The longest recession since records began" next to any of the indicators today, and you would be forgiven for saying they had got their sums wrong.

    Pretty big surprise in all truth.
  • lemonjellylemonjelly Forumite
    8K Posts
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    ✭✭✭✭
    To be honest, this'll REALLY make the next quarter interesting...

    3 quarters of bad stuff. In reality, since late 2007 the economy has been going downwards. The fact that this quarter hasn't been positive has to highlight that we really aren't in a good situation.

    This news will likewise affect business & consumer confidence. & christmas is coming up.

    With vastly higher levels of people being out of work in comparison to recent years (& I still expect unemployment figures to continue rising), less availability of credit, the big consumer push over christmas has to be at risk.

    IIRC, in the run up to the last couple of christmas' there have been noises made by trade bodies that they are concerned that trading will be low, shoppers are staying away, etc. To my perception, in recent years a lot of shoppers have done a last minute "sod it" type of splurge, with the same business bods coming out boxing day saying fortunately it went better than we were thinking, & look the sales are brimming.

    Surely this isn't going to happen this year?:confused: We're not going to be able to afford it.

    & given the % amounts of consumer spending that happens over the next 3 months, how will that affect us next year...
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • 09:57 23Oct09 UK's Darling puts on a brave face - sticks to his GDP guns

    04:57 EST - [UK CHANC DARLING] looks to be putting on the bravest of faces as he
    'greets' news that the UK is in its deepest recession since at least World
    War 11. The UK Chanc, speaking from the confines of the UK Treasury,
    nevertheless, remains adamant that his forecast for the UK economy to come
    out of this most severest contraction will be by the end of the year.
    Darling may see crumbs of comfort from the fact that growth has bottomed
    (Q2 -0.6% vs -0.4% in Q3) but his rose-tinted view is looking increasingly
    optimistic, though by the same token there must be many red-faced
    economists as the Q3 GDP range forecast was flat to +0.7%. Of course this
    prelim print can still (and most likely) will be revised but deviations of
    late have been between 0.1%-0.2%.
    Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
    (MSE Andrea says ok!)
This discussion has been closed.
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