A cold breeze up the kilt for Hamish

dopester

Cleaver wrote: »

It's like me putting £10 on Liverpool to win the title and then moaning that I would have put my money on a different team if I'd known that Benitez would play Lucas in every game. If I was more astute I would have known or predicted that in the first place.

I know what you're saying though macaque, but when anyone makes a prediction you assume that they have taken evey possible scenario, looked at the chances of each happening and based it on that. Then you just have to be lucky.

Including Liverpool beach-ball deflected goal scenarios against match-winning Sunderland?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

We are at present see large scale wage freezes in public sector and private sector areas.

You do realise that the average wage in both the private and public sectors increased in the last 3 months?

An average of 1.6% increase for the private sector, and closer to 3% for the public sector.....:rolleyes:

The govrnment is seeking to reduce future pay increases as deals end and the whole in their fiances gets bigger.

No. The government is freezing pay as inflation on both the CPI and RPI is negative. A pay freeze with negative inflation is the same thing as a pay rise with positive inflation.

On top of that both public and private redundecies are increasing with reductions in recruitment.

Blatant lie. Recruitment is stable on the official government measure. As a senior manager in a national company with access to our own and industry wide data, I can tell you that we are hiring aggressively for the first time in two years, as sales are growing. Our competitors are too.

Now together with tigher lending criteria and big loses being writen off by banks and builders how can there be increases in asset prices. How can this be sustainable especially when you consider all the debt.

Seriously, do you live in a cave?

Have you not seen the multiple news items regarding loosening lending criteria, increased competition, new lenders entering the market, slasjhing of rates (bank margins), higher LTV's, etc?????

You must be a wind up merchant, because it is impossible to take what you say seriously when such clear and demonstrable evidence is available to prove you wrong...:rolleyes:

Now who here can explain why they think price increases in say housing will continue?

400,000 increase in population last year, in the middle of the biggest recession since the war.

250,000 households created last year.

Just 80,000 houses built last year.

Any questions?:rotfl:

dopester

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Seriously, do you live in a cave?

Have you not seen the multiple news items regarding loosening lending criteria, increased competition, new lenders entering the market, slasjhing of rates (bank margins), higher LTV's, etc?????

There are two parts to the borrowing equation Hamish.

Those willing to lend to qualifying borrowers (even 100% or 120% mortgages) - but still it requires qualifying borrowers willing to borrow. It's over. It really is.

A trend of credit expansion has two components: the general willingness to lend and borrow and the general ability of borrowers to pay interest and principal. These components depend respectively upon (1) the trend of people’s confidence, i.e., whether both creditors and debtors think that debtors will be able to pay, and (2) the trend of production, which makes it either easier or harder in actuality for debtors to pay. So as long as confidence and production increase, the supply of credit tends to expand.

The expansion of credit ends when the desire or ability to sustain the trend can no longer be maintained. As confidence and production decrease, the supply of credit contracts.

The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot be overstated. When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending. As debtors and potential debtors become more conservative, they borrow less or not at all. As producers become more conservative, they reduce expansion plans. As consumers become more conservative, they save more and spend less. These behaviors reduce the "velocity" of money, i.e., the speed with which it circulates to make purchases, thus putting downside pressure on prices. These forces reverse the former trend.

This time around central banks have gone full out to "expand credit enormously." It has had a slow down effect on the crash, helped some borrowers get stuck in to paying down debt, or the J-Lo-Mos to spend excess in the economy.

What is playing out though in the wider economy (and around the world), with rising unemployment, increasing numbers looking at pay-freezes and pay-cuts, and businesses which could only survive in boom conditions failing, and otherwise solid businesses who over-borrowed to expand in the boom in the expectation boom conditions would always continue also being squeezed....

- A fall in loan demand in the face of falling interest rates.

This last point is particularly important. The Fed immediately dropped the discount rate in 1929 from 6 percent to 5 percent. Within two weeks, the rate had been pushed down to 4.5 percent. In the weeks after the crash, "the system expanded credit enormously." Nonetheless, after the crisis subsided, falling interest rates were not accompanied by a growth of money aggregates. A repeat of this would be an early confirmation of a coming deflationary collapse.

Look around. With some exceptions, people are looking to pay-down debt, limit risk, bring to market valuables they hope they can get near boom-peak cash for.. whilst accepting lower and lower prices as market values fall (including a fine wine auction coming up in France because values there are set to crash too).

It is financial conservation, not wanting to take on big piles on debt - no matter how much you and many others would like it to be so. The crash has been delayed but at great cost to make the coming correction in values even more powerful imo.

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can accept you were trying to correct a post from Hamish to your views, it's just that your correction did not make sense.

It would be much easier and better if you had re-read the post, understood the mistake that was pointed out to you, put your hands up, admitted the mistake and re-wrote what you had intended.

As it is, it seems even worse that after pointing out the error you are still in denial.

If a teacher uses a red pen to make corrections, what colour should be used to correct the corrections?

Nope. Still doesn't make any more sense than it did last night.

Sorry.

carolt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Denial. Not just a river in Egypt....

It's sad that she doesn't get it.

But sadder still that someone so obviously lacking in integrity and intelligence can be a teacher in this day and age.

I do hope she manages to keep the hate filled rants out of the classroom.

I don't teach politics or economics so not sure where discussion of house prices would fit into my daily job. As for a 'hate-filled rant', the only person I expressed negative feelings towards here was you, Hamish, and surely, self-important as you are, you don't surely imagine I sit in classes discussing Hamish and his housing obsession, do you?

I do find you endless personal attacks aimed at my professional status rather childish TBH. I don't post on here as a teacher and my job is entirely irrelevant. Contrary to your exalted view of the scope and power of my status, I don't influence an 'entire generation of children', let alone teach them. I'm a teacher, you've got got a problem with educated people - get over it.

But as to the real crux of the matter. Hamish - why on earth do you care so much about house prices? While the rest of us on here were relaxing, chatting of this and that, you chose to spend your Saturday night, like every night and every day, posting non-stop gloats on house prices rising.

Why?

I just don't get it and I don't think anyone else does, either. You got chucked off one site for similar obsessive posting, apparently. Now you've started on here. I mean - you're welcome to, it's a free world and gives us something to talk about...but WHY? WHY? on earth do you do it?

If you're genuinely not in negative equity and you're convinced prices will continue to rise why don't you just sit back, watch the telly or decorate your lovely mansion or something?

Please tell, because it utterly baffles me.

julieq

The obvious question Carol is why spend time replying then?

carolt

Because the guy's been posting a load of very vicious personal attacks on me.

I'd like to know what his problem is, frankly - far easier if he tells us than me wasting my time guessing.

Do you know julie?

What motivates you to post here, BTW? Nice to see you back.

PasturesNew

brit1234 wrote: »

Agreed, he has no crediability much like Bruno

At least Bruno made educational videos!

new_home_owner_3

House prices have gone up reccently, i can see why some people want house prices to fall so they can step onto the housing ladder and get a better property for the money they want to spend, whether this will happen i dont know.

I bought 10 years ago i had a decent deposit but the house i bought was not the best house and i wish i could have got a lot better with my money at the time, bottom line i got what i could afford.

A lot of people who want to buy need to realise this, and maybe they might not get their ideal house when they are taking their first steps onto the housing ladder.

I think if they are waiting for the ideal house to come down to them, they might be waiting a long time.

As for wishing misery on people so they have to sell their house at a redued rate is a bit sad, the thing now is, i have a friend who is not working, but the government new scheme are paying his mortgage upto 2 years.

And i also have other friends who have not had a lot of work but are keeping their homes as the interest rates are so low.

new_home_owner_3

PasturesNew wrote: »

At least Bruno made educational videos!

we are all on about the same bruno here?