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A cold breeze up the kilt for Hamish
macaque_2
Posts: 2,439 Forumite
House prices to fall 10pc in 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/6350220/House-prices-to-fall-10pc-in-2010.html
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Comments
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Wow, what a surprising prediction from Capital Economics.
Remind me again, how much did they predict the housing market would fall this year?
Wasn't it 20% or so?
I bet it really sticks in their throat that the most accurate prediction for this year came from Stuart Law at Assetz management.
And from the article....Capital Economics, which has a history of being bearish on house prices, admits it is being pessimistic,
No kidding.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
It will take a landmine up the kilt to dent his irrational exuberance.
The only silver lining to his twaddle is that the recovery has to appear real for the bull trap to bite good and hard.
So, lets just ignore him for a year, then he will be gone for good.0 -
Cannon_Fodder wrote: »So, lets just ignore him for a year, then he will be gone for good.
Agreed, he has no crediability much like Bruno or Stuart Lawz. They just quote rubbish, spin and distortions against the economic fundamentals.
Maybe if there was some serious argument behind it, but there never is.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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I think we should take a look at that Market Oracle article that had a look at previous Capital Economics forecasts
It is not Capital Economics fault for being crap at forecasting UK house prices, but rather the mainstream media not having any clue what they are reporting on instead of churning out the same repetitive drivel labeled as financial journalism ? No wonder their readership base is constantly shrinking due to poor journalistic standards.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7183.html
They are nearly as bad as you lot.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
I think we should take a look at that Market Oracle article that had a look at previous Capital Economics forecasts
It is not Capital Economics fault for being crap at forecasting UK house prices, but rather the mainstream media not having any clue what they are reporting on instead of churning out the same repetitive drivel labeled as financial journalism ? No wonder their readership base is constantly shrinking due to poor journalistic standards.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7183.html
They are nearly as bad as you lot.
Indeed.
Capital economics have what is almost certainly the worst prediction record in UK housing history. Calling a crash from 2002 to 2006. Reversing that call mid 2007, and predicting further growth and no crash. Predicting 25% falls for 2009.
I mean, how wrong is it possible to be???? Those Jokers are as bad as it gets.
And whilst Boulger or Law may well have a vested interest, the fact remains they have been the most accurate forecasters by far this year......“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Maybe if there was some serious argument behind it, but there never is.
Whilst I don't always agree with his relentess optimism, there is usually a pretty well thought out argument from Hamish to back up what he's saying. He clearly believes what he posts and he normally points out the various reasons why he came to his conclusions.
He's still as mad as a bag of badgers of course, but I think saying that there isn't 'serious argument' behind his post is a little unfair. Although I know that you bulls and bears are like sunni and shias now and have probably forgotten quite why you hate each other and now just oppose each other automatically after years of argument.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Indeed.
Capital economics have what is almost certainly the worst prediction record in UK housing history. Calling a crash from 2002 to 2006. Reversing that call mid 2007, and predicting further growth and no crash. Predicting 25% falls for 2009.
I mean, how wrong is it possible to be???? Those Jokers are as bad as it gets.
And whilst Boulger or Law may well have a vested interest, the fact remains they have been the most accurate forecasters by far this year......
On the contrary, they were about the only ones who saw the crash coming.
Unlike Hamish.0 -
On the contrary, they were about the only ones who saw the crash coming.
The evidence says they were as wrong as it's possible to get.....
BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.
BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.
BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.
BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.
Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."
BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.
Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009. 3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen !
Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.
Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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