Derren Brown - FTSE prediction

donshale

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Double dip could be a healthy thing because it will lend realism to the market. ultimately the market serves the purpose of directing money to companies growing in prospects not just inflating in price so readjustment of inaccuracy is a good thing long term

The march low was a new low in the decline which means it might not be the bottom. I think a second dip would not be even lower because british currency is weaker then international companies quoted in the ftse100 many of which have their toes dipped into growing countries and stronger currency.
So the second dip may be in pounds not shares & outside the remit of this survey

I don't want to go off topic - but why are you so sure there will be any significant second dip as opposed to flat or slow progress? What do you see triggering it - a rush of profit taking, or what economic indicator if reported below forecast could be significant to precipitate a rush of selling - GDP, inflation? What key data releases should we all be looking for in terms of a potential tipping point?

Sorry if this is off topic!

isofa

As with DB, I'll tell you just at the same moment it's published, but I "promise" I'll have worked it out

(Jonbvn love the Mash article!)

peterg1965

My view, I think there will be a 'mild' retrace in the early autumn whilst the markets 'catch their breath' after a stunning bull run since March. I believe, with the recession all but over, there will be a 'standard' V shaped recovery and the markets will maintain a generally upwards momentum. I am shorting a lot of shares at the moment and a bumpy ride upwards helps my strategy.

Therefore, my prediction is a year end FTSE of 5375

Jennifer_Jane

4870 for me for year-end.

Hope it's higher, I need the money!

Jen
x

sabretoothtigger

donshale wrote: »

I don't want to go off topic - but why are you so sure there will be any significant second dip as opposed to flat or slow progress? What do you see triggering it - a rush of profit taking, or what economic indicator if reported below forecast could be significant to precipitate a rush of selling - GDP, inflation? What key data releases should we all be looking for in terms of a potential tipping point?

Sorry if this is off topic!

a second dip might be flat if the currency weakens, need to plot both really and/or inflation
Trigger would be lower earnings then expected, look at company results and decide for yourself if forecasts are realistic

donshale

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

a second dip might be flat if the currency weakens, need to plot both really and/or inflation
Trigger would be lower earnings then expected, look at company results and decide for yourself if forecasts are realistic

Thanks. I'll keep this in mind.

john_s_2

At least 10 characters: 4500

Calchas

So, who fancies their chances?

sabretoothtigger

peterg1965 wrote: »

My view, I think there will be a 'mild' retrace in the early autumn whilst the markets 'catch their breath' after a stunning bull run since March. I believe, with the recession all but over, there will be a 'standard' V shaped recovery and the markets will maintain a generally upwards momentum. I am shorting a lot of shares at the moment and a bumpy ride upwards helps my strategy.

Therefore, my prediction is a year end FTSE of 5375

Jennifer_Jane wrote: »

4870 for me for year-end.

Hope it's higher, I need the money!

Jen
x

john_s wrote: »

At least 10 characters: 4500

average 4915 3rd page

2nd page average 5087.08

1st page average 4953.38

Total thread estimate is 4985.15 and Ftse is today 5426 which makes the crowd 8% wrong

Could be worse, the ftse hasnt moved alot basically since sept. Neither has the currency afaik, its pretty much the same as september so I was personally dead wrong. Stevie and a couple others got it dead right pretty much

I still think 4500 is possible at some point before inflation kicks in. Need another thread now for what level will we be at for the March low anniversary

ses6jwg

Dont have a clue, but if it drops below 5000 I'll be piling thousands in.