Derren Brown - FTSE prediction

ftsesurvey

A few months ago, I asked for help on this forum to predict the lowest point the FTSE would dip to before recovering.

The motive was to get a result based on the "wisdom of the crowd" theory. This is the same theory which Derren Brown claims to have used to help him determine the most likely numbers to predict the Lottery.

The results of our "wisdom of the crowd" experiment here was much, much closer than any of the so-called experts and fund managers predictions in the press at that time. The result here was within 6% accuracy. Not bad for 'uneducated guesses'! Certainly close enough to give food for thought. The original results can be viewed here:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1516133

NEW FOLLOW-UP SURVEY BELOW - PLEASE HELP:

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Do another survey, see how consistent we are. Where will ftse end the year

In response to this thread it has been suggested that we do the same as see where we place the FTSE at the end of the year. Please give your figures in this thread. The same criteria as for the first survey - no expertise is required, just a personal guesstimate. I will post the results when we have around 50 replies - so please add yours below.

The last closing price before this survey was 5,011. Post your figure for the end of this year by replying to this thread. I will 'Thank' all helpful replies. Thanks!

gozomark

how close did the "wisdom of the crowd" get, if you took it to be an average of the "of the so-called experts and fund managers predictions" ?


was it 6% above or below the actual low - 6% below would have been useful, 6% above means you would miss the bottom......

nicko33

gozomark wrote: »

6% below would have been useful

you miss the bottom with this also though, don't you?
While you are waiting for the FTSE to drop to this 6% below figure, it starts going up, and you think it's only a short-term rise and will drop again soon, and then it's too late, you've missed the bottom...

isofa

DB isn't a magician (and freely admits it), he leads you to believe something, whilst doing something else.

He didn't use wisdom of the crowd at all, he just cheated the audience, took advantage of the small transmission delay. Otherwise, of course, he'd have shown you the balls with the numbers to start with! Just a simple confidence trick.

Anyway I'm veering off topic

sabretoothtigger

Do another survey, see how consistent we are. Where will ftse end the year

Morning all,
Im short FTSE from 5006 on Friday. My time cycle analysis tells me that Friday was the high for this year and we will make new lows in a few months time. So I am holding on to this short position and will add to it when appropriate.

ftsesurvey

gozomark wrote: »

how close did the "wisdom of the crowd" get, if you took it to be an average of the "of the so-called experts and fund managers predictions" ?


was it 6% above or below the actual low - 6% below would have been useful, 6% above means you would miss the bottom......

nicko33 wrote: »

you miss the bottom with this also though, don't you?
While you are waiting for the FTSE to drop to this 6% below figure, it starts going up, and you think it's only a short-term rise and will drop again soon, and then it's too late, you've missed the bottom...

Answering the point about waiting for the bottom. Having got the results, you don't have to wait for the actual bottom - as you say, you could miss the bottom if it never reaches the lowest point, and also because there is always likely to be a margin of error. It's just an indicator method.

What I did, was not to wait for the lowest point (as you say, it may never happen), but to use the "wisdom of the crowd" as an indicator as to what the biggest 'paper loss' would be during the cycle and to buy in at the point when the potential paper loss looked acceptable but with a view to holding on for the eventual upturn.

I'm not advocating this as a method of investment - but as an experiment I can't say I'm disappointed with the result. Would I use the same method again in future? Yes, without a doubt.

ftsesurvey

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Do another survey, see how consistent we are. Where will ftse end the year

Great idea. OK - I have edited the first post on this thread, to invite guesstimates for the FTSE as at the end of the year. Thanks for the suggestion.

gozomark

4,650 for me

Jonbvn

isofa wrote: »

He didn't use wisdom of the crowd at all, he just cheated the audience, took advantage of the small transmission delay. Otherwise, of course, he'd have shown you the balls with the numbers to start with! Just a simple confidence trick.

I think the Daily Mash has put it more succinctly;)

Old_Slaphead

ftsesurvey wrote: »

A few months ago, I asked for help on this forum to predict the lowest point the FTSE would dip to before recovering.

The motive was to get a result based on the "wisdom of the crowd" theory.

This is the same theory which Derren Brown claims to have used to help him determine the most likely numbers to predict the Lottery.

Regardless of whether we believe this or not, you may be interested to know that the results of the "wisdom of the crowd" here were much, much closer than any of the so-called experts and fund managers predictions in the press at that time.

The result here was within 6% accuracy. Not bad for 'uneducated guesses'! Certainly close enough to give food for thought.

The original results can be viewed here:

Not really surprising - the mood was negative at the time (FTSE100=3800ish) and most people realistically went for falls of 5-10% below that level.

At the start of each year, usually the big-name forecasters are optimistic and forecast a footsie growth of 5-10%.

This clearly assumes that it's a perfect market and all known information is reflected in share prices therefore the only change will be 'unexpected'. Punters cannot predict extreme changes....their forecasts will usually therefore be +/-10% from current depending how positive/negative they feel.

In current forecasts, most punters seem to be suggesting range 4400 to 5500. Any greater variance will need them to logically explain and justify why other forecasters/market doesn''t concur (and anyway if it did then the FTSE level would be different to accomodate their current thinking)

pioneer

I thought my prediction was spot on ! 1st half anyhow; the second part remains; looks promising though.