Derren Brown - FTSE prediction

ftsesurvey

balaclava wrote: »

The original question was: “what is the lowest you think the FTSE will fall to before a recovery starts?” The supplementary question is: “where we place the FTSE at the end of the year?”

Does the wisdom of crowd believe that the FTSE has reached its low point and that it is now recovering? Your supplementary question appears to show that you do. I have been reading articles and opinions every day for the past two weeks and I have formed the view that the consensus amongst the ‘experts’ is that there will be a double dip (with co consensus on whether the next dip will be lower than the first) and that the second dip will come during the winter.

The original question did not impose timescales, it just asked for a guess for the FTSE lowest. If the experts you quote are correct, then if the second dip were worse than the first, then it could conceivably bring a low even closer to original figure predicted here - 3,300. And if that happens I suggest Derren Brown should come here for his Lottery prediction next time and buy a ticket too.

Double dip? Who knows. For the purposes of the question where the FTSE will end the year, I suggest responders take whatever view they wish in order to arrive at their guesstimate.

donshale

Interesting experiment. Put me down for 5000.

biderex

I see it at 4800

StevieJ

Anyone see the great film 'Let it ride' a funny film about horse race betting, in one scene he asks the people around him what they are betting on, strikes a line through their choices and does a Sherlock Holmes and picks what is left.
'How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?'

Of course it wins

Calchas

5555 for me.

Re-reading the previous thread discussing the low (if indeed it was the low) is entertaining!

donshale

StevieJ wrote: »

'How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?'

My thinking about this survey too. The first one looks to have been very close in its prediction so it will be very interesting to see how this one does. I'm sticking on 5000.

donshale

When will the result of this be given? How many people need to reply?

sheslookinhot

I'll go with 5275

LOST

5000 max - i think more bad news will lead to a stuttered recovery after another drop or slow decline

sabretoothtigger

Double dip could be a healthy thing because it will lend realism to the market. ultimately the market serves the purpose of directing money to companies growing in prospects not just inflating in price so readjustment of inaccuracy is a good thing long term

The march low was a new low in the decline which means it might not be the bottom. I think a second dip would not be even lower because british currency is weaker then international companies quoted in the ftse100 many of which have their toes dipped into growing countries and stronger currency.
So the second dip may be in pounds not shares & outside the remit of this survey