MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

Framps

Generali wrote: »

Random probably isn't the right word and I don't know what the right word/phrase is but there is no good reason for asset prices to move in predictable, timed cycles and I've never seen any proper, closely argued
(y'know with sums and all that) reason to make me think otherwise.

The only arguments I've ever seen boil down to, "It's obvious" or words to that effect.

I think Hamish used "cycle" in the sense that all assets which attract speculators / investors have periods of price rises and falls, not that their occurence was something regular or predictable.

I might be completely wrong of course! :rolleyes:

Generali

Framps wrote: »

I think Hamish used "cycle" in the sense that all assets which attract speculators / investors have periods of price rises and falls, not that their occurence was something regular or predictable.

I might be completely wrong of course! :rolleyes:

Generally speaking, people use the term 'cycle' economically to relate to (quasi) predictable phases of rises and falls in economic activity and/or asset prices (eg the business cycle, house price cycle, inventory cycle).

I think it's a crock of poo myself. I'm happy to be convinced that I'm wrong, I've just never seen anything even vaguely approximating evidence that I am (on this I mean - I've been wrong on tons of other things).

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

There are a lot more on the house buying board

You're right there. A whole lot more. I've asked but I doubt there will ever be a reply.

lethal0r

most of the people who said they think prices will rise have just seen a couple of news reports or articles saying prices have risen for the last 2 or 3 months. so they think that means prices are rising. they wont take the time to really think about, it will just be a case of "yeah i agree with that 2 minute report, im swayed".

they'll be falling again before christmas.

Scrudge

So are house prices significantly MORE AFFORDABLE now then they were before the crisis????? (And by that I mean not just whether current interest payments are manageable but also principal repayment plus any potentially increased interest payments in the future). I DO NOT THINK SO. We have crisis because they were FAR TOO INFLATED - and nothing has really changed. so the crisis is far from over.

Scrudge

Also for the next 30 years UK house prices will be collapsing in real term due to three factors.

1. Pensions crisis - when current 30 year olds start to retire the vast majority will be on tiny state pensions unlike penioners of today - as many current pensioners draw final salary based pensions. In 30 years time pensioners will be downsizing much quicker!!!

2. Student loans crisis. People will be entering lives with more and more debt and this will affect their ability to take on additional debt.Also tax rises to pay for extravaganza of this government will cripple future after tax earnings affecting ability to borrow for a house.

3. Globalization - as more and more jobs are becoming portable expect move towards equalization of salaries and house prices across many countries. This will work against the UK.

brit1234

The whole student fees should act as a serious barrier. How are people going to pay there uni debts and and save a 25% deposit on rissing house prices?

Prices will be going down

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

2003-crash coming soon, :j

2004-crash coming soon, :j

2005-crash coming soon, :j

2006-crash coming soon, :j

2007-crash coming soon, :j

2008-CRASH IS HERE, 50% FALLS BY X-MAS 09!!!

2009-!!!!!!? Prices are rising!:eek: Who stole our crash?

2010- Maybe the Tories will save me.... Pleeeeeease...._pale_

2011- I'm screwed, should have bought in 2006:mad:

2012- I'm screwed, should have bought in 2007:mad:

2013-House prices are ridiculous.:mad:

2014-Crash coming sometime...:rolleyes:

Repeat circle.......

Yep. We'll never ever see an undershoot like we have in every single crash so far....ever again!

Undershoots are like so last crash.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yep. We'll never ever see an undershoot like we have in every single crash so far....ever again!

Undershoots are like so last crash.

:rotfl:

You do realise that as prices rise, so does the trend line.....

The rising prices of the next boom will lift the average trend line, and make todays prices appear like they dipped below trend for much deeper and longer than is the case today.

Then the next generation of bears will make the same mistake you just did, sometime around 2025 or so.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

You do realise that as prices rise, so does the trend line.....

The rising prices of the next boom will lift the average trend line, and make todays prices appear like they dipped below trend for much deeper and longer than is the case today.

Then the next generation of bears will make the same mistake you just did, sometime around 2025 or so.....

Would you like a trend line argument?