MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

carolt

wageslave wrote: »

Is she? I wasn't aware of that. That accounts for the "phenomenal" yields on rental properties.
Actually, she seems a fairly bright woman, erudite when we apply the modern meaning educated and not the medieval meaning, learned.
She does talk a lot of tosh very well, I do give her that.


That's an opinion, not a fact.*

* I am starting to sound like my own Grandmother or Mewbie

I've just become your biggest fan, wageslave.

You do have hidden depths, I do declare.

What a truly sensational put-down. I'm in awe.

carolt

julieq wrote: »

Every single bear prediction here has been wrong, it's really not just that some of them have been, it's all of them. I remember well the "banking shares are going to plummet tomorrow" based on some apparently dodgy Lloyds figures. When I pointed out they weren't, I was attacked with the usual ad hominems, and of course they didn't, the price went up marginally in fact. But I don't make a lot of predictions, I commentate based on verifiable fact, i.e. the truth.

The "truth" is also that the bear side arguments are specious, often self contradictory (high inflation and low inflation at the same time), and based on inflated hyperbole often from such well respected authorities as MoneyWeek and the Daily Express, whipped up into a neo-millenarian frenzy by mutual agreement. When I post, I try to reference actual absolute numbers to put the "soaring" and "plumetting" into context or I make reasoned arguments in detail to point out that received truth is often fallacious.

Um...but julie love....

julieq wrote: »

The correction in house prices was long predicted, but the consensus was for a period of stagnation. The near collapse of the world banking system wasn't really anticipated, but even with that and the tightest credit since 1982 prices are rising strongly now.

..................

There's no reason for rents to shoot up, but they're not exactly low, are they? Yields are phenomenal in any case, and rents have held up at a time when just about anyone with a variable rate mortgage has seen their outgoings reduce 8 fold or more.

Annualised prices still down c 10%, yields barely touching 5% - no figures actually quoted in your 'argument', just huge amounts of wishful thinking and a damned good attempt at pulling the wool over people's eyes (sheeple's eyes? - sorry - couldn't resist the pun....) with attractive but entirely unsubstantiated points.

Let's have a bit of proof, dear.

Fine words will butter no bread. What a lovely saying.

nearlynew

Just goes to show........

An ounce of image is worth a pound of performance.

Spend a lot of time composing a long and complicated post and some people automatically assume it contains a reasonable and balanced point of view, regardless of the sh1te that it actually contains.

carolt

Rupert_The_Bear_2 wrote: »

I have never said i do not like you carol? In fact i do.

What gave you the idea I was talking about me?

nearlynew

I love you rewired.

carolt

nearlynew wrote: »

Just goes to show........

An ounce of image is worth a pound of performance.

Spend a lot of time composing a long and complicated post and some people automatically assume it contains a reasonable and balanced point of view, regardless of the sh1te that it actually contains.

They teach you that at posh school. Useful skill.

carolt

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The nominal price drop has been something 20% on average I think?
The devaluation of the currency was about 20% over the last couple years also so thats houses being 40% cheaper then peak.
So long as people werent holding their money in british pounds thats the price advantage people have.
Unfortunately many uk buyers were holding the cash that got devalued so the price drop will appear less then expected

5th Sept 08, you put your money into gold at £451 an ounce to avoid the currency risk
6th Sept 09 you cash the gold to buy a house at £604 an ounce

Your 100k appears to be worth more at £134k

Switching your cash over to Australian dollars for a year would have you an extra 11k now and Japanese Yen would convert to 125k now

So thats where the price crash went I think , I didnt see that ahead of time myself
Retrospect is a git but time could repeat itself and people who want to own a house should just buy it imo not speculate on where or when the crash might happen.

Houses retain value and cash does not

Forgive me if I've misunderstood you, but surely that only applies if the majority of house buying is done on a globalised scale?

As most of it is done by Brits to each other, in pounds, I fail to see how this has much impact on the crash either way (with the exception of parts of London largely bought by foreigners, etc)?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

carolt wrote: »

Let's have a bit of proof.

House prices up by around 8% since February according to Nationwide, and about to go year on year positive. In the middle of a recession, with rising unemployment, and despite the strictest mortgage rationing in decades. It would be difficult to portray that as anything other than a "strong" performance.

Rental yields may be at 5% in many places, but there are now also many places with yields far better. In my own market, yields are closer to 7% on average and 8% is not uncommon, despite higher prices than most places....

The Times recently did a top ten listing of rental yields..... They found some as high as 12%, I expect they also missed more than a few as well.

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2009/07/the-top-ten-buytolet-hotspots.html

In all of those cases, even the 5% yields, this is substantially better than money in the bank. Where most savings accounts struggle to get more than 2 or 3 percent.

So when comparing 8%, 10% or 12% returns versus 2% or 3% returns...... Yes, I think that could be described quite accurately as "phenomenal".

Fine words will butter no bread. What a lovely saying.

A fine saying indeed, however in this case I can think of one that is a slightly more apt.....

There are none so blind as those that will not see

sabretoothtigger

there has been no inflation over the last year. So pound did not loos real value so fat from the inflation perspective.

devaluation is inflation I heard jim rogers say. I think inflation would vary by the type of product, property is more subject to international money then local supermarket food prices so perhaps they see the effects first.

Also thats why its a stealth movement, if house prices were falling anyway then the inflation would be masked

Its confusing, I dont exactly know what will happen but I do think people should keep things simple as possible

Scrudge wrote: »

People with cash should move their cash into inflation protected products as soon as there are first signs of hyperinflation

I think people are best off taking long term measures as soon as possible. Waiting for something to happen first probably wont work out

The average guy or gal isnt a speculator who can necessarily tell when is the right time to buy gold or yen or whatever actually is going to save their money value.

Thats why people just stick to savings accounts because its safe they think but really they should just buy a house and live in it, simple but it works out longterm where as keeping large amounts of cash is a kind of currency speculation

Forgive me if I've misunderstood you, but surely that only applies if the majority of house buying is done on a globalised scale?

As most of it is done by Brits to each other, in pounds, I fail to see how this has much impact on the crash either way (with the exception of parts of London largely bought by foreigners, etc)?

I think currency value is carried on a global scale and if uk property looks cheap enough then it will be more subject to international money.

London would be the prime target and especially commercial property rather then residential. But this could mean more foreign landlords

As more money came to london I would expect it to spread to effect house prices around the country in a ripple effect. People will still have lost money compared to 2007 but it'll be far less then it would have been had the currency exchange rate not also fallen


Im just estimating how it could be that house prices could rise from here when we all know they should fall really. Its way over my head but it seems more then plausible to me and my argument is people avoid risk and avoid holding the majority of their wealth in currency

joguest

House prices up by around 8% since February according to Nationwide, and about to go year on year positive. In the middle of a recession, with rising unemployment, and despite the strictest mortgage rationing in decades. It would be difficult to portray that as anything other than a "strong" performance.

Precisely why they will fall Hamish. The fact that prices are rising at the moment at the end of a long bull run and in the face of all reason actually demonstrates why prices will collapse. What it demonstrates is how far sentiment has become divorced from the fundamentals. If prices weren't rising at the moment I'd be less convinced there were large falls about to take place.

Apologies for coming back after I said I was going away - couldn't resist.