MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

julieq

mewbie wrote: »

Tell the truth? Er what? Are you the self proclaimed sayer of the Truth on MSE? What utter nonsense. You are a poster. No more or less than that. You have a version, a story, that you portray quite forcefully as the truth. Some may well believe it.

I don't.

Mewbie, the truth is that what has happened is not what you or any of the other HPC bears predicted. You can huff and you can puff but you can't get away from that. That's why you're becoming so unpleasant, and in common with most of the bears your first resort is a spiteful little ad hominem attack, you dismiss a few paragraphs of reasoned argument with a contemptible "can't be bothered to read that", like a spoilt schoolkid.

Oddly enough another bear staple is to suggest anyone not agreeing that house prices are going one way only is a sarcastic suggestion that the "bulls have their fingers in their ears and aren't listening". Nice irony.

Every single bear prediction here has been wrong, it's really not just that some of them have been, it's all of them. I remember well the "banking shares are going to plummet tomorrow" based on some apparently dodgy Lloyds figures. When I pointed out they weren't, I was attacked with the usual ad hominems, and of course they didn't, the price went up marginally in fact. But I don't make a lot of predictions, I commentate based on verifiable fact, i.e. the truth.

The "truth" is also that the bear side arguments are specious, often self contradictory (high inflation and low inflation at the same time), and based on inflated hyperbole often from such well respected authorities as MoneyWeek and the Daily Express, whipped up into a neo-millenarian frenzy by mutual agreement. When I post, I try to reference actual absolute numbers to put the "soaring" and "plumetting" into context or I make reasoned arguments in detail to point out that received truth is often fallacious.

You don't. You just make petty little jibes wrapped up as "humour" and supported by your chums and then complain bitterly that your mates have had the same treatment you dish out. The treatment Hamish has had here for essentially being right time after time is nothing short of scandalous. Really pathetic name calling.

And to whoever it was who suggested I'm a frustrated buy to let investor, I'm not. I would have invested earlier this year in BTL if I'd had the cash, but at present my cash is educating my children. I'm not a frustrated anything, actually, I have a nice house, money in the bank, enjoyable life and a great job. I am not a debt junkie because I have no debt. Nada. Zilch. I'm certainly not scared of debt if I needed it, and I have used it. But I have none.

You can have debate without ad hominem attack and silly namecalling. But to do that you do have to have some arguments that hold water, which are backed up by what actually happens. Which I think you're finding a little problematic, aren't you?

In a way it's working, because I'm less and less inclined to post here, the temptation is just to disappear and come back in 6 months to say "I told you so". It may be comfortable for you to sit with a small group of like minded people who all agree that whatever is happening isn't sustainable and it's just about to turn in your direction, but you won't learn much from that.

Incidentally, about "correction", yes I believed pre crash that house prices were overcooked, and I was expecting a correction. As I've said repeatedly, most people, myself included, expected a correction over a few years via stagnation with interest rates rising. Something else happened which very few people had predicted, the banking system collapsed. To get back to stagnation, prices can rise 20% or so from current levels, like Hamish I would expect prices to fall back marginally into the winter and start a slow drag back Spring next year. I don't expect 2007 prices in real terms any time soon.

mewbie_2

The test poll is running here...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1929259

mewbie_2

julieq wrote: »

Mewbie...you dismiss a few paragraphs of reasoned argument with a contemptible "can't be bothered to read that", like a spoilt schoolkid.

Julie... your 'supporters' will thank it, and I will rubbish it. You and I will not be convinced by any amount of paragraphs. We are on totally different wavelengths.

I wll try though not to do any 'jokes' as I am sick of the clique and the thanks game. It spoils the whole point of debate. Not that we can actually have a debate as neither of us listens to the other.

Essentially it is we expect different outcomes.

One other very minor thing. I have not launched personal attacks on Hamish, other than the obvious bear / bull knock about stuff - and I think he is a decent enough person not to make any 'political' capital out of your statement.

I may be a b$stard, but I am generally a decent b$stard.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mewbie wrote: »

One other very minor thing. I have not launched personal attacks on Hamish, other than the obvious bear / bull knock about stuff - and I think he is a decent enough person not to make any 'political' capital out of your statement.

I have no issue with you mewbie. A bit of spirited banter is enjoyable, and you are at least funny.

I may be a b$stard, but I am generally a decent b$stard.

:rotfl:

Same here....

sabretoothtigger

The nominal price drop has been something 20% on average I think?
The devaluation of the currency was about 20% over the last couple years also so thats houses being 40% cheaper then peak.
So long as people werent holding their money in british pounds thats the price advantage people have.
Unfortunately many uk buyers were holding the cash that got devalued so the price drop will appear less then expected

5th Sept 08, you put your money into gold at £451 an ounce to avoid the currency risk
6th Sept 09 you cash the gold to buy a house at £604 an ounce

Your 100k appears to be worth more at £134k

Switching your cash over to Australian dollars for a year would have you an extra 11k now and Japanese Yen would convert to 125k now

So thats where the price crash went I think , I didnt see that ahead of time myself
Retrospect is a git but time could repeat itself and people who want to own a house should just buy it imo not speculate on where or when the crash might happen.

Houses retain value and cash does not

julieq

I have an issue with you Mewbie, because you are sarcastic, spiteful and mean spirited. And then you cry foul if you or any of your mates get anything approaching the same treatment back.

So why not stop that? Why not engage in arguments if you have something to say, and refrain from saying anything when you don't. Precisely what did you think you were adding to the debate by dismissing what I wrote contemptuously because you couldn't be bothered reading it?

And how droll, a poll asking if MSE users know what day it is! Lovely stuff.

mewbie_2

julieq wrote: »

I have an issue with you Mewbie...

That's sort of the idea.

Scrudge

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The nominal price drop has been something 20% on average I think?
The devaluation of the currency was about 20% over the last couple years also so thats houses being 40% cheaper then peak.
So long as people werent holding their money in british pounds thats the price advantage people have.
Unfortunately many uk buyers were holding the cash that got devalued so the price drop will appear less then expected

5th Sept 08, you put your money into gold at £451 an ounce to avoid the currency risk
6th Sept 09 you cash the gold to buy a house at £604 an ounce

Your 100k appears to be worth more at £134k

I see what you are saying but then gold is itself a an asset not less speculatory in nature then houses.

I think that it is more meaningful to think in terms of price of a basket of goods - and there has been no inflation over the last year. So pound did not loos real value so fat from the inflation perspective.

HOWEVER all this money printing that contributed to devaluing the pound will most certainly result in hyperinflation in about 6-12 months time - this will wipe out probably 20-30% of real vlaue from houses. People with cash should move their cash into inflation protected products as soon as there are first signs of hyperinflation - and then they might in fact see the CRASH and benefit from it.

nearlynew

julieq wrote: »

And to whoever it was who suggested I'm a frustrated buy to let investor, I'm not. I would have invested earlier this year in BTL if I'd had the cash..............

:rotfl:


................... Priceless.


It's not often that you make me laugh more than mewbie, but this is brilliant.

Thank you julie.




(in fact it is the only funny post you have ever written)

carolt

Rupert_The_Bear_2 wrote: »

I think you and julie would be great together mewbs.A meeting of the minds.It reminds of that old school playground behaviour, you know where the girl has the crush on the boy but openly pretends to dislike him.

You mean a bit like the one where the boy has the crush on the girl but openly pretends to dislike her?

Yes, I know all about that one.