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Dropping like flies......
Comments
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But wait a minute. Didn't he predict rises for several years over on HPC until they threw him off?
.
No, not at all.
My predictions were quite clear over on hpc, and some have been wrong, but most have been right..
What I got wrong.....
-Overall fall from peak to trough of around 30% to 35%. (it was 20%)
-The timing of QE. I thought they would start it later than they did.
-The peak to fall drops in Aberdeen/Edinburgh. Edinburgh was a few percent less than I thought, Aberdeeen 2% more.
What I got right......
-That they would print money, when 90% of hpc-ers thought they wouldn't.
-That said printing would not lead to a zimbabwean level of hyperinflation, when 99% of hpc-ers thought it would.
-QE leading to an increase in mortgage funding availability for new purchase every month from April to Sept..... When the hpc-ers thought lending would keep declining.
-ZIRP by March (OK, it was 0.5%, but close enough)
-The spring/summer bounce. (although I didn't expect it to still be going into September)
-Government interventions into the housing market, and that they would work, when hpc-ers were convinced no government could influence the markets.
-Additional mortgage funding liquidity leading to an increase in competition in the markets, driving down bank margins from Q3 09 to Q1 2010. (it's started already)
But the most relevant predictions are yet to be proven one way or the other.
-That we will see further price falls over this coming winter, that will take prices back to within a few percent of last winters lows.
-That the sweet spot for buying property, the place where mortgage margins, base rates, and property prices interact to be most favourable for most buyers, will be Q4 2009 or Q1 2010.
I suspect I am going to be right on those ones still, but the strength of the spring/summer bounce has been surprising, and it may turn out to have been Q1 2009.
We'll see soon enough.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I have a few problems with this Private Frazer.
1. Mick Dundee joined HPC last December. Are you sure 'perma-pessimist' is the right description?
2. A few minutes ago there were 609 browsers on the main HPC forum. MSE's house buying forum had 117.
3. One stray sheep in a flock of 609 is equivalent to 0.16%.
4. I don't know if you noticed but Mick Dundee is actually selling a house for £225,500 and buying one for £177,500. In the bull/bear classification system, trading down is the close cousin fo 'sell to rent'.
An excellent post, macaque. Hardly "dropping like flies", then, as the OP would have it.
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:0 -
you got banned for being a troll ...god you must miss the place if you keep going back over and peeping..
:rotfl:
All the prolific bulls got banned..... for being right. (Can't upset the hive mind now, can we.....)
In fact a mod stated it was because they wanted to show newbie ftb's that our arguments "had no veracity".... Strange that they only had the urge to do so when our case was proven, and prices were rising.
Interestingly this thread from yesterday, aptly titled "Does Anyone Else Get The Feeling Hpc.co.uk Has Turned Into A Parody Of Itself?", shows exactly what happens when you ban all the dissenting voices...... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=124448“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
bernard_shaw wrote: »An excellent post, macaque. Hardly "dropping like flies", then, as the OP would have it.
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Morning hpc-er....:D
Too quiet over there today?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »:rotfl:
All the prolific bulls got banned..... for being right. (Can't upset the hive mind now, can we.....)
In fact a mod stated it was because they wanted to show newbie ftb's that our arguments "had no veracity".... Strange that they only had the urge to do so when our case was proven, and prices were rising.
Interestingly this thread from yesterday, aptly titled "Does Anyone Else Get The Feeling Hpc.co.uk Has Turned Into A Parody Of Itself?", shows exactly what happens when you ban all the dissenting voices...... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=124448
So Hamish, your instructions for all the bears is to buy, buy, buy. And to immerse themselves in ever increasing debt (but with peace of mind that prices are going UP UP UP)?"For those who understand, no explanation is necessary. Those who don't understand, dont matter."0 -
So Hamish, your instructions for all the bears is to buy, buy, buy. And to immerse themselves in ever increasing debt (but with peace of mind that prices are going UP UP UP)?
Actually no, I couldn't care less if bears never buy.
Feel free to pay three times as much for lifetime housing costs by renting instead if that floats your boat.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
So Hamish, your instructions for all the bears is to buy, buy, buy. And to immerse themselves in ever increasing debt (but with peace of mind that prices are going UP UP UP)?
Ever increasing debt? how would it be increasing? surely even an interest only mortgage would stay at a constant level of debt, wouldn't it? Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »Ever increasing debt? how would it be increasing? surely even an interest only mortgage would stay at a constant level of debt, wouldn't it?
Thats the part they don't understand.
You are locking in todays prices. The value of debt is reduced by inflation.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Thats the part they don't understand.
You are locking in todays prices. The value of debt is reduced by inflation.
Yes good point, I was actually wrong to state that it would be 'constant', it would only be constant in absolute terms but not in 'real terms' as you say due to inflation.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
The only thing that needs locking in is you.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Thats the part they don't understand.
You are locking in todays prices. The value of debt is reduced by inflation.0
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