WARNING for house buyers.... Bear Trap coming soon

Pobby

mewbie wrote: »

Gosh, looks like someone didn't managed to predict the future. Hilarious.

However, as we all know, the historically low interest rates, nationalisation of banks , QE, and other subterfuges have managed to prop the system up. Resulting in only a 20% drop. So far.

Now children - I want you to stop fidgeting and tell me what you think will happen when the artifical props are withdrawn. Do you think the rising unemployment and taxes, plus savage spending cuts will have any impact? Or do you think after the biggest bubble in house price history we will return to another debt fuelled HPI period?

Mewbs, spot on. Of course it`s all artificial. 0.5%, oh yes, very normal " interest " rates Anyone who thinks that we are going to go into another debt fuelled period of HPI will have a tough job in persuading me.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Heyman wrote: »

It's like I've said before - for some people (i.e. bears), there will always be a reason not to buy.

It will ALWAYS be, 'we're not at the bottom yet' or 'interest rates are too high' or 'prices might go down next year'.

tbh this is sorta disingenous as that is the definition of a bear. once a bear decides to buy in - they are no longer a bear. once a bull decides to sell off - they are no longer a bull.

in most markets there is a time to be a bear and a time to be a bull

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As many of us have been predicting for months now, there will most likely be a decline in prices over next winter.

The bears will no doubt come out of the woodwork, and try to portray an obvious and well predicted decline as somehow being proof that their bizarre theories regarding further significant falls are correct.

DO NOT BE FOOLED.

The coming slower times in the market will be your LAST CHANCE to buy at a significant discount to peak before prices rise steadily, and far faster than most can save.

The bears will not see this, and will no doubt be calling next springs rises a bull trap once more, until when prices cross 2007 levels late next year or the year after they finally catch on to the fact that they missed the boat, the ship, and the chance of a lifetime to buy below trend.

At the start of this year, I predicted that the sweet spot for buying would be Q4 2009 or Q1 2010. By that time QE should have fed into the system enough to ensure some decline in mortgage spreads from present levels, and prices should have again fallen back to within a few percent of last february's lows.....

But do not mistake the bears frantic crash ramping at that time for anything other than it is. A desperate attempt to prevent people from taking advantage of the falls that will happen, before the recovery returns with a vengeance in Q2 2010 onwards.

I have no idea why they feel the urge to mislead people into missing their once in a lifetime chance to buy below long term trend, but they do. I can only put it down to "misery loves company", and I do hope that as few people as possible miss out due to the rantings of some doom-mongers on here or hpc.

But whatever...... I've done my bit, and you have been warned.

The rest is up to you.

Thank you for this Private Frazer. Here are a list of factors which influence people's ability to drive up house prices.

1. Falling taxes
2. Rising incomes
3. Falling unemployment
4. A general willingness to increase personal debt
5. Loose lending policies
6. Falling interest rates

Please tick which of these apply.

the_ash_and_the_oak

brit1234 wrote: »

There have been trackers which have been below 0.5% and around it. If you are saying mortgage rates are not at a historical low then you are having a laugh.

Buy lots of houses if you think its over

You are looking at this the wrong way imo. as others have pointed out the historical low rates are only available for existing owners, they are not available for incoming owners. this is why prices are not currently falling, and houses are not currently selling. number of people who need to sell - hugely reduced. number of people able to buy - hugely reduced.

its isn't that increasing interest rates will suddenly throw current owners into trouble (although it will to an extent - prices stopped falling around the same time as existing owners rates dropped - one of the reasons that was brought in of course). the problem for houses isn't the status of current owners, its the ability and number of future owners (this can only reallly manifest once volumes increase)

Heyman_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

tbh this is sorta disingenous as that is the definition of a bear. once a bear decides to buy in - they are no longer a bear. once a bull decides to sell off - they are no longer a bull.

The implied definition on here is more dependant on the viewpoint that someone holds. There are plenty of posters on here who have a mortgage but hold a 'bear' viewpoint. And, no doubt, vice-versa.

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

in most markets there is a time to be a bear and a time to be a bull

I would agree with that but what I am questioning is the instances of bears on this forum for whom I believe the market conditions will never be suitable to put their money where their mouths are. To become 'bulls'.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dan: wrote: »

Interesting.

I was under the impression that whatever the Government done to try and 'prop up the market' it would fail, as a house crash was unavoidable.

kinda see where you are coming from w this but imo govt can only change how a crash manifests, it cant be prevented from occurring (well double digit inflation might well do, but in terms of actions a govt would choose to take, not so much imo)

the_ash_and_the_oak

Heyman wrote: »

The implied definition on here is more dependant on the viewpoint that someone holds. There are plenty of posters on here who have a mortgage but hold a 'bear' viewpoint. And, no doubt, vice-versa.



I would agree with that but what I am questioning is the instances of bears on this forum for whom I believe the market conditions will never be suitable to put their money where their mouths are. To become 'bulls'.

not really sure people on a forum should 'matter' in that way. debate the view not the person?

mewbie_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

not really sure people on a forum should 'matter' in that way. debate the view not the person?

Exactly how I feel. Debate the point, the facts, using copious notes and spreadsheets to prove your theory. Not some bashing based on whether x is this or that. But do the bulls listen? Oh no. Always attack the bears, even if the poor bear is simply giving an honest answer to what - lets face it- is normally a wind up load of nonsense for a raging bull. The bulls are always having a go for no reason on poor defenceless bears. Some of the bulls smell and wet themselves.

That's why I always try to debate reasonably.

Heyman_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

not really sure people on a forum should 'matter' in that way. debate the view not the person?

Of course they matter in that way! We're all people in different scenarios and walks of life and in a lot of instances someone's viewpoint on here directly relates to their present situation. If someone puts it out there on a public forum and attaches a lot of emotion and personal circumstance to their viewpoint then in my eyes it's fair game to be debated.

It would be pretty dull and stuffy on here if that didn't prevail IMHO.

shakerbaby

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As many of us have been predicting for months now, there will most likely be a decline in prices over next winter.

The bears will no doubt come out of the woodwork, and try to portray an obvious and well predicted decline as somehow being proof that their bizarre theories regarding further significant falls are correct.

DO NOT BE FOOLED.

The coming slower times in the market will be your LAST CHANCE to buy at a significant discount to peak before prices rise steadily, and far faster than most can save.

The bears will not see this, and will no doubt be calling next springs rises a bull trap once more, until when prices cross 2007 levels late next year or the year after they finally catch on to the fact that they missed the boat, the ship, and the chance of a lifetime to buy below trend.

At the start of this year, I predicted that the sweet spot for buying would be Q4 2009 or Q1 2010. By that time QE should have fed into the system enough to ensure some decline in mortgage spreads from present levels, and prices should have again fallen back to within a few percent of last february's lows.....

But do not mistake the bears frantic crash ramping at that time for anything other than it is. A desperate attempt to prevent people from taking advantage of the falls that will happen, before the recovery returns with a vengeance in Q2 2010 onwards.

I have no idea why they feel the urge to mislead people into missing their once in a lifetime chance to buy below long term trend, but they do. I can only put it down to "misery loves company", and I do hope that as few people as possible miss out due to the rantings of some doom-mongers on here or hpc.

But whatever...... I've done my bit, and you have been warned.

The rest is up to you.

It's not called BULLSHlT for no reason.