We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
WARNING for house buyers.... Bear Trap coming soon
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
As many of us have been predicting for months now, there will most likely be a decline in prices over next winter.
The bears will no doubt come out of the woodwork, and try to portray an obvious and well predicted decline as somehow being proof that their bizarre theories regarding further significant falls are correct.
DO NOT BE FOOLED.
The coming slower times in the market will be your LAST CHANCE to buy at a significant discount to peak before prices rise steadily, and far faster than most can save.
The bears will not see this, and will no doubt be calling next springs rises a bull trap once more, until when prices cross 2007 levels late next year or the year after they finally catch on to the fact that they missed the boat, the ship, and the chance of a lifetime to buy below trend.
At the start of this year, I predicted that the sweet spot for buying would be Q4 2009 or Q1 2010. By that time QE should have fed into the system enough to ensure some decline in mortgage spreads from present levels, and prices should have again fallen back to within a few percent of last february's lows.....
But do not mistake the bears frantic crash ramping at that time for anything other than it is. A desperate attempt to prevent people from taking advantage of the falls that will happen, before the recovery returns with a vengeance in Q2 2010 onwards.
I have no idea why they feel the urge to mislead people into missing their once in a lifetime chance to buy below long term trend, but they do. I can only put it down to "misery loves company", and I do hope that as few people as possible miss out due to the rantings of some doom-mongers on here or hpc.
But whatever...... I've done my bit, and you have been warned.
The rest is up to you.
The bears will no doubt come out of the woodwork, and try to portray an obvious and well predicted decline as somehow being proof that their bizarre theories regarding further significant falls are correct.
DO NOT BE FOOLED.
The coming slower times in the market will be your LAST CHANCE to buy at a significant discount to peak before prices rise steadily, and far faster than most can save.
The bears will not see this, and will no doubt be calling next springs rises a bull trap once more, until when prices cross 2007 levels late next year or the year after they finally catch on to the fact that they missed the boat, the ship, and the chance of a lifetime to buy below trend.
At the start of this year, I predicted that the sweet spot for buying would be Q4 2009 or Q1 2010. By that time QE should have fed into the system enough to ensure some decline in mortgage spreads from present levels, and prices should have again fallen back to within a few percent of last february's lows.....
But do not mistake the bears frantic crash ramping at that time for anything other than it is. A desperate attempt to prevent people from taking advantage of the falls that will happen, before the recovery returns with a vengeance in Q2 2010 onwards.
I have no idea why they feel the urge to mislead people into missing their once in a lifetime chance to buy below long term trend, but they do. I can only put it down to "misery loves company", and I do hope that as few people as possible miss out due to the rantings of some doom-mongers on here or hpc.
But whatever...... I've done my bit, and you have been warned.
The rest is up to you.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
0
Comments
-
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
You silly little bull.
Rob0 -
You silly little bull.
Rob
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Awwww, look, they've started already.
So predictable.:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
IT'S A BULL TRAP
Yeah right, try your best to panic everyone into the bull trap, lots of people are falling for it.
The fundamentals haven't gone away. You can bleat all your hysteria but in the end you have to go back to pure economics. No matter how you spin it we are in debt up to our eyeballs, unemployment is rapidly rising and we are sitting on the biggest housing bubble ever.
A decade of fraud, a decade of declaring false salaries, a decade of gift deposits, its a bubble and a giant mess.
If it wasn't do you really think we would have interest rates at 0.5% well below inflation eating the prudents savings to save the foolish..
You do realise that these rises are determined by people pulling out their savings because the rates are so low and putting it into property. Also the people do 100% technical mortgages through shared ownership/equity. Thats what is driving the rises because no one is buying the other proerty and the sale figures are distorted by the small sample and what above.
Strange if they included distressed sales we would still be going down, but hey they are removed from the equation.
Hamish lets get this straight, there is limited money left in savings, and the goverment can't afford to fund homebuy the money is drying up.
Prices will return back to normal and people buying because the 0.5% rates are entering a big bull trap.
HAMISH PROMOTES THE
BULL TRAP
:exclamatiBEWARE:exclamati:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
0 -
Prices will return back to normal and people buying because the 0.5% rates are entering a big bull trap.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Prices have returned to normal, after falling to below the long term trend.
Thats why it's called the "return to mean" phase.
As for your 0.5% theory (ROFL), I'll take it seriously just as soon as you show me a mortgage available for new purchasers at 0.5% interest rates.
Any takers? Please show me an example of these fictional 0.5% mortgage rates.
I'm not asking for much..... Just one will do.:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
You were probably thinking of woodlice.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The bears will no doubt come out of the woodwork...0 -
Prices will return back to normal and people buying because the 0.5% rates are entering a big bull trap.Once again, you are talking rubbish brit. You have already been discredited, so why would anyone believe your bold headings and images now?
Interest rates at 0.5% has no effect on people buying as the margin between the base rate and mortgage product rates is unusually high.
If it really was a bull trap, you would know by now.0 -
brit,
I am personally more inclined to think that we're entering a period of stagnation where prices are going to hover around the point they are now for a few years.
I don't see Mortgage deals getting any better than they are now, in fact if anything they are getting worse as time goes on. What makes you think that anyone would be better off hanging around for another year, 2 years, 3 years etc when most economists don't expect interest rates to rise significantly within that time period?
To me, there no longer exists a catalyst for the huge market disruption we saw in 2008 - if you are banking on interest rates being that catalyst then you are going to be waiting a long time.
I'll be surprised if I get an answer, given the one-hit-wonder nature of your postings recently.0 -
brit,
I am personally more inclined to think that we're entering a period of stagnation where prices are going to hover around the point they are now for a few years.
I don't see Mortgage deals getting any better than they are now, in fact if anything they are getting worse as time goes on. What makes you think that anyone would be better off hanging around for another year, 2 years, 3 years etc when most economists don't expect interest rates to rise significantly within that time period?
To me, there no longer exists a catalyst for the huge market disruption we saw in 2008 - if you are banking on interest rates being that catalyst then you are going to be waiting a long time.
I'll be surprised if I get an answer, given the one-hit-wonder nature of your postings recently.
Very good post.
I too believe that we are in for a period of stagnation.
Don't know how long that period will be.
I do however think that there will not be much to gain from waiting and more likely mortgages etc will become more expensive as the months go on.
It's just an opinion, but the next 6 months to a year may be the ideal time to buy in this cycle.
P.S. notice Brit's dropped the 50% drop by christmas 2009 from her sig
. Still makes me laugh:rotfl: :wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Where have we seen this stagnation before? Do you think this is a completely new market?IveSeenTheLight wrote: »I too believe that we are in for a period of stagnation.
Don't know how long that period will be.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
Stagnation is a nice idea, alot of people want it, but I don't believe it.Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.0 -
It's like I've said before - for some people (i.e. bears), there will always be a reason not to buy.
It will ALWAYS be, 'we're not at the bottom yet' or 'interest rates are too high' or 'prices might go down next year'.
It's even worse for the bears who want to do an outright cash purchase - they're terrified of getting it wrong. RDB's got a thread going here about a barn house which he acknowledges he's put a super-low offer in for, and he's STILL not sure about it. STILL thinking of waiting 'until next year'.
This time next year, Rodders.... :rolleyes:0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 352K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.5K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 454.2K Spending & Discounts
- 245.1K Work, Benefits & Business
- 600.7K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.4K Life & Family
- 258.8K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.2K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards