WARNING for house buyers.... Bear Trap coming soon

Lotus-eater

Apart from a couple of posters at either end of the argument, most people are either bears or bulls because they believe the market is going up or down, if they change their mind, then what you call them will change.

Just because they happen to think the market still has room to move down, doesn't really mean you can accuse them of being permanently pessimistic.

mewbie_2

Lot of crystal balls on this thread. I think that a second wave of price drops will hit in a while, for all the obvious reasons that you know, but choose to deny or cannot understand. There is no reason to delve into affordability charts, interest rate patterns since 1602, or other such complex and frankly boring information.

Anyone watching the market for the last ten years has sufficient information to tell them that a larger and more prolonged downturn is coming.

This post is not intended as a 'wind up' post, just a simple statement of the 'facts' as I see them. If I don't get PPR'd then we may see where we are around 2012 - I may be telling you about the BTL I have invested in.

Tip: buy at the bottom, not half way up.

brit1234

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Prices have returned to normal, after falling to below the long term trend.

Thats why it's called the "return to mean" phase.

As for your 0.5% theory (ROFL), I'll take it seriously just as soon as you show me a mortgage available for new purchasers at 0.5% interest rates.

Any takers? Please show me an example of these fictional 0.5% mortgage rates.

I'm not asking for much..... Just one will do.:D

Prices are far from normal, you can't have double didgit house price inflation for year after year and it to be sustainable. There is nothing that underpins it.

The 0.5% is base rates, clever cloggs. How were your GCSEs this week?

There have been trackers which have been below 0.5% and around it. If you are saying mortgage rates are not at a historical low then you are having a laugh.

Buy lots of houses if you think its over

IveSeenTheLight

Lotus-eater wrote: »

Where have we seen this stagnation before? Do you think this is a completely new market?
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
Stagnation is a nice idea, alot of people want it, but I don't believe it.

Well I guess it depends on your view of what stagnation is and over what period.
My view is that if prices are relatively similar than they were previously, then the market has stagnated.
Of course it will not be exactly the same price, but if we are only talking a few percent, then is it worth quibling over?

Nationwide (I know not the best indice, but the most current) are showing -2.7% YoY.
When you see prices YoY so close to 0%, can you not see how it can be classed as stagnated from last year?
Now prices will likely drop in the coming months and likely rise again next sping.
For me this is a likelyhood for stagnation for that period. Beyond that then who knows.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/aug_2009.pdf

Heyman_2

mewbie wrote: »

Lot of crystal balls on this thread. I think that a second wave of price drops will hit in a while, for all the obvious reasons that you know, but choose to deny or cannot understand. There is no reason to delve into affordability charts, interest rate patterns since 1602, or other such complex and frankly boring information.

Anyone watching the market for the last ten years has sufficient information to tell them that a larger and more prolonged downturn is coming.

This post is not intended as a 'wind up' post, just a simple statement of the 'facts' as I see them. If I don't get PPR'd then we may see where we are around 2012 - I may be telling you about the BTL I have invested in.

Tip: buy at the bottom, not half way up.

There are always going to be crystal balls mewb, everyone's got a different view of how it's going to go, yourself included. I do acknowledge that I myself have pulled people up on that before though.

Why the recent paranoia about getting PPR'd? You had a warning or something?

Dan:_4

brit1234 wrote: »

There have been trackers which have been below 0.5% and around it. If you are saying mortgage rates are not at a historical low then you are having a laugh.

Brit, for people taking out new products it is not historically low rates. Trackers are set with an unusually high margin from the base rate, and there are fixed rates products that were cheaper in 2007 with the base rate at 5.5%.

Only people benefiting from 'historically low rates' are existing mortgage holders on trackers or SVR.

Heyman_2

brit1234 wrote: »

Buy lots of houses if you think its over

I don't see a prediction for house price drops in your sig anymore brit, so I'm assuming you think it's over

IveSeenTheLight

Heyman wrote: »

I don't see a prediction for house price drops in your sig anymore brit, so I'm assuming you think it's over

I think she's realised there's unlikely to be the greater than 35% drop she needed in the next 4 months

50% by Christmas 2009. It's a cracker :rotfl:

Dan:_4

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I think she's realised there's unlikely to be the greater than 35% drop she needed in the next 4 months

50% by Christmas 2009. It's a cracker :rotfl:

What's even funnier is she blames interest rates for it not working out as 'planned'.

:rotfl:

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I think she's realised there's unlikely to be the greater than 35% drop she needed in the next 4 months

50% by Christmas 2009. It's a cracker :rotfl:

Gosh, looks like someone didn't managed to predict the future. Hilarious.

However, as we all know, the historically low interest rates, nationalisation of banks , QE, and other subterfuges have managed to prop the system up. Resulting in only a 20% drop. So far.

Now children - I want you to stop fidgeting and tell me what you think will happen when the artifical props are withdrawn. Do you think the rising unemployment and taxes, plus savage spending cuts will have any impact? Or do you think after the biggest bubble in house price history we will return to another debt fuelled HPI period?