Is the housing market about to turn?

mewbie_2

Dan: wrote: »

This is a UK forum.

I was drawing a potential parallel between the lost decade (and a half) that Japan has suffered and what may be in front of us. I try to learn from history, and er geography.

ManAtHome

mewbie wrote: »

Not if you live in Japan.

Is Japan a small, crowded island where land isn't being made any more? If not, people will accuse you of being a winder-upperer (if you delete yours, will you get mine as well?).

[edit] whoops too late, forgot that poundland was extremely unique unless it spoils the argument...

Graham_Devon

ManAtHome wrote: »

Is Japan a small, crowded island where land isn't being made any more? If not, people will accuse you of being a winder-upperer (if you delete yours, will you get mine as well?).

I'm going with yes. They are plonking houses on top of each other on bridges there it's so bad.



Half the bridge leads to no where too....funny bridge that. Wish we had bridges which led to no where.

mewbie_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Wish we had bridges which led to no where.

There's the Severn Bridge.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mewbie wrote: »

I was drawing a potential parallel between the lost decade (and a half) that Japan has suffered and what may be in front of us. I try to learn from history, and er geography.

Shame you forgot about demographics, and er, cultural differences.....:rolleyes:

Japan has a declining population. The UK has a growing population.

Japan is a nation of thrifty little rice eating savers. We are a nation of degenerate MacDonalds munching spendaholics.

Japan has xenophobic immigration policies. We are letting in huge numbers of people each year, and even if we didn't, our household formation rate would still be 150% higher than the rate of housebuilding today.

Even now, in the worst recession for decades, the UK added 70,000 net immigrants last year. Because as much as it sucks here, it sucks far more over there.

There is no relevant comparison between the UK and Japan.

the_ash_and_the_oak

japan and the uk have ageing populations imo, with one particular generation holding disproportionate assets and coming towards needing expensive care in twilight years.

the generation immediately below them, which they will sell these assets to, is smaller in number

house123

Found this! The first report out in August. Maybe this adds a little weight to my findings? But, who really knows.

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_AUG09.pdf

house123

Crikey! I am having a bit of a bear day. It’s been a while.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d8c7f7ea-8828-11de-82e4-00144feabdc0.html

house123

The plot begins to thicken!

Or perhaps it’s me that’s beginning to thicken. Time will tell.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6798312.ece

the_ash_and_the_oak

Cleaver wrote: »

I have a really simple theory, but I have no idea if it's right.

Lots of people, in general, want to own a house to live in. Most people aren't obsessed with the exact price of a house, they just want one they can pretty much afford. Houses have gone down in price a bit over the past few years, now they are going up again, so quite a few people have gone out and bought one over the past couple of months on the basis that they're a bit cheaper now than they have been for a while.

That's my theory.

if people were paying with their own money i would agree. but they are using credit. this is why lots of people are not buying houses. a much smaller amount of people buying houses.

imo the people that are buying houses at the moment are those with sufficient funds that obtaining a mortgage is possible. they are buying from owners that currently are not under pressure to sell because of low tracker rates for existing owners.

those that are having difficulty obtaining finance are not able to just offer lower amounts and see what happens, they are not able to offer at all.