Is the housing market about to turn?

house123

I have been keeping a close eye on a particular area of Suffolk since January. The area has consistently about 300 properties on right move and as you would expect, that’s a mixture of ‘for sales’ and ‘solds’, now with the latter being majority. What I have found interesting is the activity in this small market has generally been aligned with the turn in house price indexes, the positive surveys, and reports coming from all corners telling us that the housing market has found the bottom

However, in the last few weeks I have noticed activity seems a little different. I am seeing less houses being sold for starters, I am also seeing a few more properties coming on to the market. I have also noticed that there are an increasing number of properties becoming available again, after being sold. Also, I can honestly say I am seeing the greatest number of price reductions I have seen at anytime (Property Bee). I also have a few EA friends (they really are friends!), who have said August is looking tough, with lots of sales falling through because people REALLY can not get a mortgage.

Now, this could just be an odd two weeks in a generally upward trend. But has anyone else spotted this potential shift back down again?

mewbie_2

Numpties bought at the top of the market. Numpties bought this Spring/Summer. Numpties will buy next Spring. And so on.

But there are insufficient Numpties (see the F.T. Schiller Numpty Index for more details) to support this temporary bounce.

sjaypink

house123 wrote: »

Now, this could just be an odd two weeks in a generally upward trend. But has anyone else spotted this potential shift back down again?

Have noticed further drops (property bee), mostly in new build 'luxury apartments' , or in the properties originally worth 750k+ (dont know why im looking at them ). mostly 'normal' properties seem to be dissapearing, (suppossedly not sold?) or are steadily dropping asking price by 5 or 10k at a time every few months. A few have been put on at very good prices (by comparison) and have sold quickly.

two things ive noticed:

a lot of new build houses come up as (eg)
10/08:'for sale £350k'
11/08: 'price changed to £500k'
12/08: 'sold'

then a month or so later its back on as for sale? what are they (developers) up to?

other thing is ive noticed a sharp increase in 'for sale by auction in sept unless sold prior to...'

are there more sales by auction (where can you find out sold at auction results btw?), or are the ea's just trying to drum up interest by setting a deadline?

bo_drinker

Is it about to turn etc..... No.......... Next

brit1234

Its going to go down in the latter months with the estate agents furious ramping in the spring again. The can't change the basics that the price level is too high for the lending criteria. These overvalued houses will return to normal values.

Dan:_4

brit1234 wrote: »

Its going to go down in the latter months with the estate agents furious ramping in the spring again. The can't change the basics that the price level is too high for the lending criteria. These overvalued houses will return to normal values.

Says the man who promised 50% drops by xmas 2009.

:rotfl:

mewbie_2

Dan: wrote: »

Says the man who promised 50% drops by xmas 2009.

:rotfl:

Did I miss something - have we had Xmas already? Patience Dan, your mocking should wait until Jan 2010.

whathavewedone

From my experience of selling, agents have always told me that if I hadn't got it on the market by June I should leave it until September because no one buys in July and August and those that do will try to drive the price down due to a lack of competition. Also if I hadn't got an acceptable offer by the end of October to take it off the market until January. That was in the boom.

Prices are going to fall a bit over the next few months I expect for seasonal reasons. Don't think that means the market as a whole is going to revert to the month on month falls that we saw in 2008 and 2009 necessarily.

Viper_7

Yes, believe the recent increases are mainly seasonal, and perhaps that vendors have started to be realistic and reduce the asking prices.
However I think the majority are just waiting for the expected interest price rises, and they could go up very quickly. Difficult to find a long term fixed mortgage, so buying now at a "lower" price could lead to big problems in a few years when they look for a new mortgage deal and find the payments to be beyond their means.
Things may improve short term but I see another dip coming, and greater tightening of belts.

mewbie_2

Brock_Landers wrote: »

Says the man that predicted large cuts in income tax for xmas 2008.

:j

How do you know? You only joined this month?

mewbie_2

Brock_Landers wrote: »

Do you not believe in the after life?

:A

No. But I know when my plonker's being pulled.