Housing Market "far stronger" than a year ago

themanbearpig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just taking the subject title.
Other than house prices (which I think may see roughly 0% YoY at the end of the year) I would find it hard for anyone to show any fact that YoY the stats are not better now than last year.
Always open to seeing conflicting evidence though

If YoY changes are 0%, then obviously things this year will have been miles better than 08. But its a big assumption to make considering we are only still in July, and have the whole winter season ahead of us.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just taking the subject title.
Other than house prices (which I think may see roughly 0% YoY at the end of the year) I would find it hard for anyone to show any fact that YoY the stats are not better now than last year.
Always open to seeing conflicting evidence though

No ones disputing things are currently better though.

It doesnt have to be worse, to be bad.

And if the country is still having a bad time (which we are) then it's not neccesarily "good" or "positive" just because things are not worse than last year.

This is the part I really struggle with with the optimistic types. It seems a lot see it as positive no matter what happens, as it's not as bad as another point in history.

The recession may not be as bad as the 90's, 70's, 30's (I'm not saying it is or isnt here), but that doesnt mean this recession is somehow good. It's NOT good!

Want a wager on the 0% YoY by christmas?

You'd certainly see some sentaionalist optismism from me then considering the minute chances of 0% YoY by crimbo. It's certainly something that would need rules attached though, as I have a feeling the year might start and end in different months depending on the outcomes of said months....y'know, would probably start in february

ad9898_3

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just taking the subject title.
Other than house prices (which I think may see roughly 0% YoY at the end of the year) I would find it hard for anyone to show any fact that YoY the stats are not better now than last year.
Always open to seeing conflicting evidence though

We are likely not to see the falls that we saw last year, however a graph from peak will still show trend heading downwards, and that is with between a third and half of the peak mortgage approvals, QE, and the government/media throwing absolutely everything they have got including the kitchen sink at the problem.....

Remember the 0.9% from Nationwide in March, since then it's been overdrive in the media trying to change sentiment, RICS said this, Taylor Wimpey said that, EA's say the other.etc....etc.... and to give them their due they have suceeded in slowing the surge into oblivion, however it's built on absolutely no sound fundamentals whatsoever.

Remember Wylie Coyote when he runs off the cliff, miraculously he kept running on thin air for a while, indeed the look on his face was that he had suceeded in defying the laws of physics, however as we all know, if you have no land to run on, you will fall to your doom, the housing market is in the smiling phase, looking at the camera, but unfortunately running on thin air.

Lets see at Christmas hey where we are, when QE has stopped and the government have run out of borrowed money...... oh and don't forget the effects of the worst recession in 60 years to account for as well.

IveSeenTheLight

themanbearpig wrote: »

If YoY changes are 0%, then obviously things this year will have been miles better than 08. But its a big assumption to make considering we are only still in July, and have the whole winter season ahead of us.

It's not an assumption but an estimateion that the falls in the whole of the winter season ahead of us will not be as much as they were in 08.

Remember that seasonal adjustment caters for winter, spring, summer and autumn variances

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No ones disputing things are currently better though.

Woohooo, so you agree things are better than a year ago, even if not fully turning positive.
:T

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Want a wager on the 0% YoY by christmas?

I wouldn't put money on it as it is still optimistic and time will tell.
There is a greater possiblilty it could still negative, even if only by 1 or 2 %, confirming a plateauxing effect or stagnation

To achieve roughly 0% YoY, we would need to see the Nationwide / Halifax spring indicators come though to LR in the coming months.
It only needs a 3.6% increase to be 0% YoY at the end of the year.

Like I said, it's possible that it will still be slightly negative, but very close to 0%

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You'd certainly see some sentaionalist optismism from me then considering the minute chances of 0% YoY by crimbo. It's certainly something that would need rules attached though, as I have a feeling the year might start and end in different months depending on the outcomes of said months....y'know, would probably start in february

Ah, your referring to the Nationwide index, which I only really see as a guide. they shouwed their trough in February, but they do not cater for the majority of the sales.

I prefer to wait for land registry results, which does mean we have to wait 2-3 months after to get the actual results, but it is better data.

I only use Nationwide and Halifax as a rough guide, LR or RoSEA are better indicators in my opinion

ad9898_3

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I only use Nationwide and Halifax as a rough guide, LR or RoSEA are better indicators in my opinion

I prefer to use property bee in my area to see high priced properties not selling and prices reducing. YoY my area is 13.4% down, and 4.7% down in the last 6 months, despite all the ramping, in fact prices are still 4.2% lower than they were 4 years ago. I guess people in some areas actually see that the emperor still has no clothes, where as in others they see the media ramping as the green light to more HPI and 'better jump on the ladder quick'.

Certainly for me it's sit back and put your feet up time, save and buy with little or no mortgage in 3-5 years time.

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

I prefer to use property bee in my area to see high priced properties not selling and prices reducing. YoY my area is 13.4% down, and 4.7% down in the last 6 months, despite all the ramping, in fact prices are still 4.2% lower than they were 4 years ago. I guess people in some areas actually see that the emperor still has no clothes, where as in others they see the media ramping as the green light to more HPI and 'better jump on the ladder quick'.

Certainly for me it's sit back and put your feet up time, save and buy with little or no mortgage in 3-5 years time.

Property Bee cannot be seriously taken when viewing actual sold prices.

It may be a good tool for assessing individual properties specifically and assessing against similar individual properties locally.

Asking prices are not selling prices

It's true that local areas can be vastly affected differently and I am always an advocator of checking your local market

"my area is 13.4% down, and 4.7% down in the last 6 months"
These are asking prices, yes? If the sellers have responsably reduced their asking prices, why should they be prepared to take a further drop in the sales price? They are obviously marketing for todays market prices

DaddyBear

So the market has gone from utterly sh!te to not quite so sh!te. Result.... an we have autumn and winter ahead of us. Anyone thinking that the YOY will be 0% by Christmas is clearly sailing without a captain.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Woohooo, so you agree things are better than a year ago, even if not fully turning positive.
:T

I've always agreed that its better than last year. That does not mean I think things are positive, I don't.

I wouldn't put money on it as it is still optimistic and time will tell.
There is a greater possiblilty it could still negative, even if only by 1 or 2 %, confirming a plateauxing effect or stagnation

To achieve roughly 0% YoY, we would need to see the Nationwide / Halifax spring indicators come though to LR in the coming months.
It only needs a 3.6% increase to be 0% YoY at the end of the year.

Like I said, it's possible that it will still be slightly negative, but very close to 0%

See, I'd happily put money behind my thoughts. That, I feel is the difference. Funnily enough, on a thread where Conrad tries to imply bears are fooling themselves if they think they are realists, I'm happy to put money on my thoughts, you are not. That says a lot to me.

One is willing to put out their thoughts and happy to back it, the other isn't, but is only happy to ramp it.

Ah, your referring to the Nationwide index, which I only really see as a guide. they shouwed their trough in February, but they do not cater for the majority of the sales.

I prefer to wait for land registry results, which does mean we have to wait 2-3 months after to get the actual results, but it is better data.

I only use Nationwide and Halifax as a rough guide, LR or RoSEA are better indicators in my opinion

Any index really apart from the silly FT one, it's just Nationwide seems to be being used at the moment by the bulls. So I used that.

Cleaver

Wookster wrote: »

So says a report from a vested interest.

Take it with 10 big pinches of salt.

I have a report from the National Association Of Salt and Sodium Producrs who are of the opinion that 10 big pinches of salt will do you no harm at all, contrary to popular opinion.