Housing Market "far stronger" than a year ago

System

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The LR is the toy in waiting. Will get played with when Nationwide reports drops, as the LR should then be reporting rises. So the goalposts will be changed again

Are you saying the bears who use the LR now won't be using Haliwide in a few months then?

Both sets of people are wrong of course, but this hypocrisy is disgusting.

shakerbaby

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1199297/Housing-market-far-stronger-year-ago-according-estate-agent-president.html

Difference between asking and selling prices shrinks massively compared to May. I suppose we'll see form the next rightmove and haliwide figures if this is because of asking prices falling, or achieved prices rising, or most likely a bit of both.

Good to see sales volumes holding up in June as well though. Same volume for last 3 months now, all at a 60% increase over Decembers figures.

To be fair it couldn't have got much worse. :rotfl::beer:

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Are you saying the bears who use the LR now won't be using Haliwide in a few months then?

Both sets of people are wrong of course, but this hypocrisy is disgusting.

LR has always been the one most people look at isn't it?

I don't think it's hypocrisy, everytime rises have happened and threads started based on halifax or nationwide indices, the bears have given it to the bulls and accepted the figures.

Don't know why its hypocrticial to say I bet the LR will now be used and the nationwide soon dumped.

Why do we have to look at months STARTING from february otherwise? This argument is trotted out daily, while totally ignoring YOY or any months beforehand.

dopester

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And yet HPI has occurred pretty consistently since February.....

Nearly every post you make Hamish, and your view on matters, trips me out a bit - it is like you really believe it.





The sad thing is... if she wasn't dead with a broken back, your remedy would be to add even more weight at any sign of life. Not going to help.

If you required a mortgage for that house you bought at peak... you were one of the few adding the final straws to the system weight. History strongly suggests that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy it is almost impossible to engineer a recovery until the excess debt is eliminated.

"Nonlinearity" is a characteristic of natural systems at every level. They are frequently marked by abrupt "phase transitions," with outcomes apparently disproportionate to their causes, like Dante's "mighty flame" the followed "a tiny spark."

Contrary to common expectation, cause and effect often do not move in a simple straight line, but interact in cycles, "with the effect feeding back on the cause and perhaps amplifying it," in the words of Gary Taubes.

Perhaps the most famous example of nonlinearity is the "straw that broke the camel's back." Under most circumstances, it would be a trying task to kill a camel with a straw. The weight of one straw, by itself, would scarcely slow a camel down. Indeed, every straw that can be added to a bale will represent only the tiniest addition of weight. But clearly there is some weight that the animal's overburdened spine cannot support. Locating that point may be difficult and in this case cruel, but that does not make it any the less real. Load one straw too many and the camel's back breaks.

michaels

<Anecdotal>Locally properties (4 bed semis) that were hanging around to make 430k in feb are now selling same week as listing for 500k - I make that about 16.2% in 4 months or +57% at an annual rate (not seasonally adjusted) </Anecdotal>

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

<Anecdotal>Locally properties (4 bed semis) that were hanging around to make 430k in feb are now selling same week as listing for 500k - I make that about 16.2% in 4 months or +57% at an annual rate (not seasonally adjusted) </Anecdotal>

Yer. There was a house for sale here that sold for 2.3 million.

Things are obviously looking so much better

Got to look on your doorsteps. All this land registry stuff is just noise.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

perma-bears,

Ha, I've been banding that label around here for ages, and that's the first time I've seen someone else use it.

I think it is central to the debate, in the sense PB's suffer greatly from confirmation bias as I keep saying which hugely clouds thier view.

PB's always claim to be realists btw.

Wookster

Conrad wrote: »

I think it is central to the debate, in the sense PB's suffer greatly from confirmation bias as I keep saying which hugely clouds thier view.

Unlike say, mortgage advisers with vested interests in seeing the property market boom again, having seen their business creek to a halt? :rolleyes:

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Wookster wrote: »

Unlike say, mortgage advisers with vested interests in seeing the property market boom again, having seen their business creek to a halt? :rolleyes:

B1tch slap......nice.:D

IveSeenTheLight

Just taking the subject title.
Other than house prices (which I think may see roughly 0% YoY at the end of the year) I would find it hard for anyone to show any fact that YoY the stats are not better now than last year.
Always open to seeing conflicting evidence though