UK Property to HALVE Between Now and July 29, 2010

inspector_monkfish

lostinrates wrote: »

Not yet, but I probably will by August :rolleyes::rotfl:

I do have a brain the size of the avain type though. Thats never good.

i take it you mean avian ???

lostinrates

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

i take it you mean avian ???

yeah. You see....I'm bad today. It- my condition- impacts on my spelling and word choice....just a few days ago people were saying they never notice it and here I am all over the place today. Oh well: nothing I can do about it!:o

Graham_Devon

Can't see it going quite as far as moneyweek state. However, no one can deny the 5 points really. It's all happening in front of our eyes. The very frist one is lending getting tighter, and today I have posted up an article about lending across the board getting more expensive, and the increases breaking records.

I suppose it's just easier to laugh it off and ridicule it for some.

I'd like to see those laughing around, actually deny the points?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'd like to see those laughing around, actually deny the points?

here you go - people are laughing at the 50% drops by the way

1. Banks are terrified of lending.
If they were terrified they wouldn't lend at all. maybe they are lending to people with a good credit rating a good LTV's on property. that's not terrified. that won't be a 50% drop in property.


2. The rising cost of borrowing will EXTINGUISH any signs of recovery
debatable - as Graham says that some deals have gone up others have come down. the 2/3/5 year swap rates seem to be creeping back down again. that won't be a 50% drop in property.

it may extinguish any signs of recovery but it will bring about stagnation - that's not 50% drop in property

3. UK property is still MASSIVELY unfordable
the Halifax affordability index is down to 4.02 - the long term average is somewhere very close to this figure - that won't mean a 50% drop in property

4. UK’s own ‘sub prime’ crisis is about to explode
never seen any reliable data to back this up - lots of US stuff gets brought up but never seen anything for the UK that has any value.

5. Unemployment is predicted to soar from its current 7% to over 10%
how many of this 3% increase of new unemployed will be home owners with a mortgage who will be forced to sell and not renters or people living with parents or social renters or people with no mortgage or people with a mortgage but have savings to pay off mortgages.

in addition the highest percentage of unemployed people will unfortunately be the under 25s - i doubt many of these will be homeowners. again reducing the amount impacting house prices above. this won't mean a 50% drop in property

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I suppose it's just easier to laugh it off and ridicule it for some.

people are laughing at the 50% drops - if anyone can back up the 50% predicted drops i'll actually stop laughing

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

here you go - people are laughing at the 50% drops by the way

1. Banks are terrified of lending.
If they were terrified they wouldn't lend at all. maybe they are lending to people with a good credit rating a good LTV's on property. that's not terrified.

2. The rising cost of borrowing will EXTINGUISH any signs of recovery
debatable - as Graham says that some deals have gone up others have come down. the 2/3/5 year swap rates seem to be creeping back down again. that won't be a 50% drop in property.

it may estinguish any signs of recovery but it will bring about stagnation - that's not 50% drop in property

3. UK property is still MASSIVELY unaffordable
the Halifax affordability index is down to 4.02 - the long term average is somewhere very close to this figure - that won't mean a 50% drop in property

4. UK’s own ‘sub prime’ crisis is about to explode
never seen any reliable data to back this up - lots of US stuff gets brought up but never seen anything for the UK that has any value.

5. Unemployment is predicted to soar from its current 7% to over 10%
how many of this 3% increase of new unemployed will be home owners with a mortgage who will be forced to sell and not renters or people living with parents or social renters or people with no mortgage or people with a mortgage but have savings to pay off mortgages.

in addition the highest percentage of unemployed people will unfortunately be the under 25s - i doubt many of these will be homeowners. again reducing the above. this won't mean a 50% drop in property

Fair points

In reaction....

1. QE has somewhat distorted this. BUT, I would suggest the large difference between LIBOR rates and lending rates states they are scared of lending money. The fact you generally need 25% deposits also suggests they are scared.

2. What rates are coming down? It's worth looking at the fees and restrictions attached to these.

3. I'm not going to go into the whole halifax affordability which last time I looked ignores females and puts the male average wage at 38k (i.e. 4.02) all over again.I don't believe thats a decent and fair way of measuring average wages. Nor do I believe 38k is anywhere near the average wage at all. But I cannot argue that the Halifax reports that. Worth bearing in mind here though that wage shave fallen 3% in the last year.

4. I doubt there was any reliable data on it in the US either. If there was, I doubt anyone would have bought all the sub prime stuff!!

5. Unemployment effects everyone, renter or not. I don't really get the ist of this part of your argument. Unemployed people do not have to be home owners to effect the price. Less people able to buy = less demand = lowr prices?

I saw all the posts about moneyweek themselves and how people are idiots for believeing anything they say etc. So guessed people were trying to down moneyweek, not just the 50% falls from here. However, 50% from here is NOT impossible.

lostinrates

chucky wrote: »

people are laughing at the 50% drops - if anyone can back up the 50% predicted drops i'll actually stop laughing

I don't expect them either: but I'm not sure what could prove a future possibilty?

inspector_monkfish

lostinrates wrote: »

yeah. You see....I'm bad today. It- my condition- impacts on my spelling and word choice....just a few days ago people were saying they never notice it and here I am all over the place today. Oh well: nothing I can do about it!:o

what condition?

lostinrates

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

what condition?

I'd rather not say. Its neurological.

bendix

carolt wrote: »

It's what journalist do to attract attention to their articles.

.

I don't know what sort of journalism you read, but in my world journalism is about reporting facts.

Publishers, on the other hand, might come up with poorly written sensationalism supported by carefully selected 'expert' speculation (usually drafted by the fund managers' PR team to get their heroes into the press) to sell their crappy magazine.

Graham_Devon

bendix wrote: »

I don't know what sort of journalism you read, but in my world journalism is about reporting facts.

Publishers, on the other hand, might come up with poorly written sensationalism supported by carefully selected 'expert' speculation (usually drafted by the fund managers' PR team to get their heroes into the press) to sell their crappy magazine.

Is that all fact?