Halifax down 0.5% MoM, 15% YoY

Gorgeous_George

Ok, it's only 3 week's pay but I don't earn a lot - I get paid even less.

My house was worth over 10x my salary at peak. I think it should level out at 6x once the cra...orrection completes but may well dip to 5x as the rollercoaster overshoots. That said, I hear that where I live is immune to the rest of the world and bungalows only ever go up.

Now, where's my gyro? Ah, here it is...



GG

ad9898_3

Well I've been out all day and thought I'd take a look at what's happened with the Halifax today, I can't say I'm surprised, but it shows that these figures are pretty much discredited now, to have a swing from +2.6% to -0.5% in a few weeks is a joke, there simply is not enough transactions to take either the Halifax or the Nationwide seriously. The Land Registry is also useless, omitting the very properties that are likely to take the biggest hits.... auctions, new builds and forced sales.

I think basically the best thing to do is look at your local area with Property Bee and make your judgement based on that, you can look at the price drops, look at high priced property that isn't moving etc..... or whatever your local market is saying.

So to sum up...... Haliwide and LR = pretty useless, and almost irrelevant.

FoxtonsRIP

ad9898 wrote: »

So to sum up...... Haliwide and LR = pretty useless, and almost irrelevant.

I agree. The monthly figures are meaningless now. Although you can't discount the YoY figures obviously.

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

does this mean that the bears will ignore the blue line and say it's not a reliable source

Take any line you like. Not sure if you understand, but anything BELOW ZERO is a drop.

westv

ad9898 wrote: »

The Land Registry is also useless, omitting the very properties that are likely to take the biggest hits.... auctions, new builds and forced sales.

I would have thought the LR figures were good for that very reason.

ad9898_3

westv wrote: »

I would have thought the LR figures were good for that very reason.

I don't get what you mean.

carolt

Certainly, the lack of properties sold mean these figures reveal much less than usual

To me, the figures with least weight, by far, are the asking prices indexes eg Rightmove.

The latest batch of sold rices for my area revealed sold prices were all well off asking prices for properties I'd been watching - at least 10-20%. Certainly back in 2004.

At the moment, so little is selling, there's no real sense of direction in house prices, just stagnation, as there's so little to base any figures on.

But given that unemployment is rising and lending is reduced, I'm not really clear where the supposed recovery is supposed to be coming from.

westv

ad9898 wrote: »

I don't get what you mean.

Taking out auctions, new builds and forced sales removes sales that are (or could be) at a wider variance (price wise) to more regular sales and therefore the resulting figures should be more reflective of general market conditions.

nearlynew

IF prices are falling as suggested in this report, that is great news.

carolt

westv wrote: »

Taking out auctions, new builds and forced sales removes sales that are (or could be) at a wider variance (price wise) to more regular sales and therefore the resulting figures should be more reflective of general market conditions.

Only if you think that general market conditions excludes large swathes of property transactions.

Doesn't make sense to me.

Are there people who refuse to look at any of these categories in case they should accidentally get a bargain?