Halifax down 0.5% MoM, 15% YoY

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Whats the not seasonally adjusted figure.....:p

unless you can explain why we should, forget the seasonally adjusted - it's down month on month 0.5%

May = £158,541
June = £157,713

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So how they figure out that a drop is now a rise?

Or am I missing something really obvious?!

yes you are missing something - it's a YOY comparison

so if you purchased in February you would have 'made money' on your property.
that's the point of going back to Feb to compare - even though they have dropped the YOY has still 'increased' :rolleyes:

ad44downey

A 0.5% FALL right smack in the middle of the 'spring bounce'. That's MASSIVE. Just think what'll be like in the cold winter months. There must be an awful lot of worried BTL chancers out there.

There's only one word to say:

TIMBER !!!!!!!!!!

[Deleted User]

chucky wrote: »

yes you are missing something - it's a YOY comparison

so if you purchased in February you would have 'made money' on your property.
that's the point of going back to Feb to compare - even though they have dropped the YOY has still 'increased' :rolleyes:

Er, not it doesn't. It just shows that the yearly drop is decreasing.

Taken from the halifax report.

Index Standardised Monthly Annual Price/
1983=100 Average Price Change Change
£ % %*

Period
Feb 519.1 160,390 -2.3 -17.7
Mar 509.2 157,320 -1.9 -17.5
Apr 500.0 154,490 -1.8 -17.7
May 513.1 158,541 2.6 -16.3
Jun 510.4 157,713 -0.5 -15.0

chucky

Deleted_User wrote: »

Er, not it doesn't. It just shows that the yearly drop is decreasing.

yes you're right got that bit the wrong way around.
should have added "comparing the YOY to last month" at the end of the sentence.

Cannon_Fodder

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So how they figure out that a drop is now a rise?

Or am I missing something really obvious?!

Graham,

The -ve in June last year was a bigger -ve than this months -ve.

Because the 2008 figure drops out of the YoY to be replaced by the 2009 one, the effect on the YoY figure, is the difference between the two figures.

i.e. Jun 2008 was -1.8%, this years is -0.5%, a difference of 1.3%. So the YoY has gone from -16.3% to -15%.

If we were to have 12 months of consistent -0.5%, we'd end up at -6%, rising from -15%, but without an actual +ve in any given month.

hth.

DaddyBear

Deleted_User wrote: »

Er, not it doesn't. It just shows that the yearly drop is decreasing.

Taken from the halifax report.

Index Standardised Monthly Annual Price/
1983=100 Average Price Change Change
£ % %*

Period
Feb 519.1 160,390 -2.3 -17.7
Mar 509.2 157,320 -1.9 -17.5
Apr 500.0 154,490 -1.8 -17.7
May 513.1 158,541 2.6 -16.3
Jun 510.4 157,713 -0.5 -15.0

Its the trend here that is important. Look at that sequence -which is the erroneuos figure.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucky wrote: »

unless you can explain why we should, forget the seasonally adjusted - it's down month on month 0.5%

I think there are bigger factors at play than just seasonality, so the SA figures distort rather than help at the moment....

Raw data is more helpful to guage the size of both ups and downs, as nobody actually pays a "seasonally adjusted" price in the market.

If a house would cost you X in May, and you now have to pay X plus Y in June, then it matters not one bit that the seasonally adjusted figure says it's a fall, if it isn't in reality. Likewise next Winter, when prices will surely drop off a bit, the same SA will mask the true size of falls.

SA distorts both gains and falls, and whilst it works well in a normal market, this is far from normal. Best just to see the real prices.

ad44downey

chucky wrote: »

yes you're right got that bit the wrong way around.
.

Mmmm...........yes. And not for the first time it has to be said. I see a trend emerging here.

Really2

DaddyBear wrote: »

Its the trend here that is important. Look at that sequence -which is the erroneuos figure.

Why not do the fall over the first 6 months

Really2 wrote: »

I did it from Dec price (so we get the full 6 months of the year).

£3148 (falls inc june) / £160861 (dec price) X100 = 1.96%:)

it could be just a 5% fall this year.