US ($) Currency Thread 2

sabretoothtigger

"expert" had predicted the US$ was about to collapse... Might be true!

They been predicting that for 10 years . I reckon this whole larger motion has been going since about 1996, it'll take a while yet I think. Twenty years for the ending of an (economic) empire is not that long I guess


Regarding the rate, its done well enough now to be at the top of its range I think.

Top rates for Dec, Jan, Feb & Mar have been respectively:
1.5912
+0.0149
1.6061
+0.0203
1.6264
+0.0137
1.6401

So if playing a game of guess the next number (what is the top price for April), we get a prediction of 1.6564 for April

[Add the gains, divide by 3 for the average gain of 0.0163
Add march top of 1.6401 onto the average gain of 0.0163]

Todays highest price was 1.6599 and its currently at this time 1.6517.

So Im calling the price fair value for this month - barring exceptional circumstances.


We had some gloom to end march and the rate was low. If we swang back that way, it'd give 1.6 within an overall very positive trend for Sterling


They think our bank is going to raise rates, europe has.
I dont think we will till Dec maybe, hence some disappointment and exchange rate falls a bit ?

neilbond007

Rather a boring week. Only fluctuated between 1.6450 and 1.6550

Sitting at 1.6539 at present.

jackieblack

A friend of mine came home after holidaying in Florida over Easter with just over $500 they didn't spend - her bank's buy back rate was $1.85, she bought at $1.55 so we met approximately in the middle and I've just purchased $522 (including about $5 in change that her bank wouldn't have bought back, notes only) for £305 ($1.71/£1)

Just got to sort out some CAD$ now!

neilbond007

1.6648. Had a bit of a spurt

pollypenny

I told OH to wait! We were pleased with $1.59, seems petty now.

jackieblack

neilbond007 wrote: »

Morning all!

Sore head this morning. Celebrated the Stoke win a little too much
Question is, do I come home for the final knowing I have no chance of getting a ticket.

75,000 delta points (and $200ish) and 80,000 hilton points for 2 nights in the big smoke... decisions, decisions....

It would be a no brainer but my better half is due to drop on June 12th and I'm scared junior will arrive while I'm away!!

neilbond007 wrote: »

It is a full month before junior is due though. I'm thinking I'll be ok. Watching the game yesterday was great. I was on my own so no one could see a grown man cry several times as the goals went in and the days stood on a cold terrace at Orient, Mansfield and such like seemed like a lifetime ago.
I would watch the final with 3 or 4 friends over here but being home for the final would be special, very special!

So.... have you deceided yet Neil?

Forndog

Im away In July to the US and waiting until the Pound hits atleast 1.7 and it just hit 1.66 so its getting there..fingers crossed.

jackieblack

Forndog wrote: »

Im away In July to the US and waiting until the Pound hits atleast 1.7 and it just hit 1.66 so its getting there..fingers crossed.

Fingers crossed

Or.... it drops like a stone before it gets to 1.70 ..........:doh:

Forndog

jackieblack wrote: »

Fingers crossed

Or.... it drops like a stone before it gets to 1.70 ..........:doh:

Dont think that will happen for many reasons
1. The US is devaluing the USD to improve exports.
2. The UK is working on strenthing the GBP as they didnt consider the fx in the calculation when looking at the inflation rate.
3. China and Russia are pulling out of the USD as the world currency.
4. Current unrest in the Middle East and North Africa
5. The CPI is what what made Sterling stronger, however, the construcion figures werent as high as expected however there are atleast two more revisions to go through and they can only be better.

Fingers crossed....

neilbond007

jackieblack wrote: »

So.... have you deceided yet Neil?

I'm going to be stopping here. It probably won't happen again in my lifetime. But missing the cup final, or missing the birth of my first child. No real decision!

PS - If somehow I manage to get a ticket all that logic goes right out of the window