US ($) Currency Thread 2

inspector_monkfish

cindiedunkley wrote: »

Hi I am off on my hols to the good ole USofA in September. The exchange rate at the moment is the worst I have experienced in the 10 years that I have visited the USA.
It's nail biting stuff
I would be happy if it would be approx $1.60
I am not really clued up on what really drives the exchange rate up or down. What important events impact the exchange rates or is it just traders' intuition? I would like to understand it better than just how many hamburgers my tenner is going to get me IYKWIM

crikey, how long you got !!

many many many many many many events sshape the way the fx rate goes.

largely based on news about to be released at specified times throughout the day, and the traders guessing what that news could be.

ie, say US unemployment figures are due to be released at 1.30pm
traders would guess if that news is going to be good or bad (lower or higher than last months news) and buy or sell usd accordingly

if they get it wrong then they could find themselves with a big loss on their books, when the price starts moving the opposite way to which they hoped it would once the news is released.

so its not the traders that shape the market, although they do try - its more to do with financial news releases, such as inflation figures, unempoyment figures, GDP figures and many many others - even rumours about presidents or prime ministers falling ill....

hope that helps!

1.4995 trading now

photome

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Latest Overall Top 10 after Tuesday results.....

1 Geoff Morley 258 - 8 transfers left
2 Inspector Monkfish 254 - 6 transfers left
3 Norman Whiteside 237 - 13 transfers left
4 Stevie J 235 - 10 transfers left
5 dom sykes 223 - 5 transfers left
6 The Purch 220 - 4 transfers left
7 Andrew H 218 - 12 transfers left
8 Pick Meass 217 - 3 transfers left
9 WU TANG 213 - 5 transfers left
10 lemon jelly 202 - 10 transfers left




Game Period 2 Top 10 is interesting.....

1. geoff morley 138
2. insp monkfish 130
3. pick meass 126
4. neil bond 114
4. the purch 114
6. dom sykes 110
7. lemonjelly 104
8. stevie j 102
9. norman whiteside 96
9. wu tang 96

A long way to go yet, A lot of guys in the top ten have players from Brazil and Holland in ( cant both go through) and only a few transfers left.

Hope for me yet;)

inspector_monkfish

1.5090 trading

inspector_monkfish

15:39 01Jul10 STERLING EXTENDS GAINS VS DOLLAR, HITS 8-WEEK HIGH OF $1.5144 <GBP=>


LONDON, July 1 - Sterling extended gains against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday, hitting an eight week high.

The pound rose as far as $1.5144 <GBP=D4>, its highest since early May.

sabretoothtigger

Sterling Index At 0700 GMT
 
      (JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      81.7       1.5113      0.8241 
               OPEN      81.8       1.5159      0.8239 
              10 AM 
               NOON 
               2 PM 
               4 PM 
 


July 02, 2010 03:01 ET (07:01 GMT)

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Sterling Index At 1500 GMT

(JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      80.1       1.4570      0.8373 
               OPEN      80.5       1.4737      0.8350 
              10 AM      80.3       1.4704      0.8366 
               NOON      80.4       1.4674      0.8346 
               2 PM      80.2       1.4662      0.8364 
               4 PM      80.2       1.4621      0.8348

June 03, 2010 11:01 ET (15:01 GMT)

inspector_monkfish

1.5210 trading now

MikeKBRFX

And possibly a bit more to the upside this afternoon if the Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint further...

1.5192 trading...

inspector_monkfish

MikeKBRFX wrote: »

And possibly a bit more to the upside this afternoon if the Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint further...

1.5192 trading...

unless of course we are seeing the classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' !

:cool:

inspector_monkfish

13:45 02Jul10 GBP/USD: Buoyed by Disappointing US Private Sector Payrolls

LONDON, July 2 - June"s disappointing +83k US private sector payrolls increase and the unexpected 0.1% decline in average hourly wages are being flagged as factors in cable"s post-US employment report release rise to a new 2-month high of 1.5230.

Private sector jobs growth of 112k was forecast. Hourly earnings were forecast up 0.1%. June"s non-farm payrolls number came in close to forecast, at minus 125k.

The big surprise was the 0.2% decline in the US unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 9.5%, from 9.7% in May. A 0.1% rise was expected.

1.5170 marks the sell-off low from 1.5230. The intra-day low of 1.5150 is an additional support point.

sabretoothtigger

A talk through of sterling and possible factors behind its strength and future prospects -

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sterling-hits-2-mth-high-vs-dollar-after-weak-payrolls-targetukfocus-7c6999669e45.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


On my own chart I have it in a good uptrend but its hit its head on the ceiling of 1.52 for the moment.

Its already been much stronger then I expected, apparently the dollar is less popular now for some reason to do with their very low bond yields of below 3% over 10 years http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Etnx

If it gets past 1.52 then 1.5378 is next potential ceiling

Sterling Index At 0700 GMT
 
      (JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      81.3       1.5110      0.8294 
               OPEN      81.5       1.5170      0.8287 
              10 AM 
               NOON 
               2 PM 
               4 PM 
 


July 06, 2010 03:01 ET (07:01 GMT)