US ($) Currency Thread 2

sabretoothtigger

GBP tumbles across the board, further breaking away from its previous positive correlations with equities as the likelihood of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England haunts the currency. Readers of this website will recall our Dec 18 article http://!!!!!!/5Meew3 laying out the case for why Sterling to Regain Whipping Boy Status in 2010. GBPUSD looks for preliminary target at $1.5130 after the $1.53 retarcement had been shattered. Any rebound remains capped at $1.5270 and $1.5330

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/dollar-sober-despite-fed-punch-bowl.asp

Cade_Foster

Going below 1.50 its like a repeat of last year

iltisman

en-route to 85c

jackieblack

iltisman wrote: »

en-route to 85c

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
Not in the next 6 weeks I hope!!!

Dealmad

jackieblack wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
Not in the next 6 weeks I hope!!!

Going in 6 weeks also , seems to be going from bad to worse , I just hope it picks up before i go because just feel like it will spoil my trip...had a bad deal last year and thats when i had quite a big budget to spend this time im doing it on a budget and need to get as much $ for my £ as possible.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/01/hung-parliament-fears-send-pound-falling

Nick Beecroft, senior FX consultant at Saxo Bank, said that the prospect of Gordon Brown remaining in Downing Street after the election had sent sterling sliding. He warned that the pound could soon fall as low as $1.40, and might even hit $1.20 by this summer.

sabretoothtigger

Long term 1.50 isnt abnormal but 85c would be. Dont get too carried away, this weakness was predictable unfortunately. Today was a big day and it could rise from here before any further drop.

The americans have just as much debt as us % wise. They also have elections like us at year end, its all swings and roundabouts.

On the other hand I switched some sterling to euro interests recently. Its best not to have all your money in just pounds

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Sterling tumbled at the fastest pace since the darkest days of the financial crisis Monday, sparking fears that it could be on the brink of a brutal sell-off as a fresh wave of political stress, uncertainty over monetary policy and merger flows all hit the currency hard.

In European trading hours, the pound dropped by more than 2.7%--a huge move in a single session--to trade under $1.48 against the dollar. That marks a 10-month low for the pound and the fastest decline in a single day since October 2008.

Meanwhile, the euro surged by more than 2% from its lowest point of the day against sterling to peak at GBP0.9151--comfortably its highest point of the year so far. Sterling also plunged to its lowest point against the Canadian and Australian dollars since 1985.

The U.K. currency later regained a little ground against the dollar and the euro as traders shied away from further negative bets, trimming the scale of the full day＇s decline.

Still, the speed of the early move, triggered by weekend public-opinion polls showing a rapid shrinking of the Conservative Party＇s pre-election lead, set many market-watchers on high alert, with some wondering whether the long-discussed sterling crisis could finally have arrived.

"We have witnessed what can justifiably be called the beginnings of sterling＇s collapse," said Nick Beecroft, a senior currencies consultant at Saxo Bank in London.

The pound has been supported somewhat by traders＇ assumption that the market-friendly and fiscally prudent Conservatives would win an easy victory in the elections, which must be held by early June, Beecroft said. But as the party＇s lead has shrunk from around 15% at the end of last year to as low as 2% in the most recent opinion polls, the currency has suffered. "Today the dam burst," he said.
Even aside from political stresses, investors appear jumpy over whether some members of the Bank of England＇s rate-setting committee will push for a fresh extension of its bond-buying program at their monthly meeting, which concludes Thursday.

"Uncertainty is always a bad thing for a currency, and at the moment, there＇s uncertainty about the uncertainty," said Geoffrey Yu, a currencies analyst at UBS AG in London.

News Monday that U.K. insurer Prudential PLC (PUK) intends to buy an American International Group Inc. (AIG) life-insurance unit--in a deal that is likely to require Prudential to buy $25 billion using sterling--also helped to tip the markets into a frenzy of selling the pound.
"These are not casual moves. These are real moves," said Simon Derrick, a senior currencies analyst at The Bank of New York Mellon in London.

"I would hesitate to say that this is the start of a crisis. But does it feel like we＇re in the next leg of the sterling downtrend that started in 2008? Yes," he said.

A fresh move in the euro up towards parity against the pound once again looks like a realistic prospect, reversing some of the damage that the Greek debt crisis has done to the 16-country currency, said Derrick. The pound could now recommence its move down against the dollar towards the low $1.40s, he added.

A wide range of analysts and investors have been expecting a move lower in sterling for some time. However, talk of a full-blown crisis by well-regarded economists has been gathering momentum of late, with Swiss bank UBS AG--one of the biggest foreign-exchange dealers in the world--warning that sterling could sink to $1.05 or even lower if any new government slashes public spending too fast.

The main chance for some short-term support for the plunging pound may now come from the fact that it has already been sold very heavily.
Friday, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed negative sterling bets against the dollar among non-commercial traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hitting a record high in the week running up to Feb. 23.

Those traders don＇t represent the entire market, but they are often seen as a proxy for hedge funds as a whole. With these data suggesting there has already been a rush of sterling selling, waning momentum or the closing of successful bets could kick in to give the pound a modest boost soon.

"We may see a short-term correction, but I would not expect a major rally ahead of the BOE on Thursday," said Yu at UBS.

By 1600 GMT Monday, sterling had recovered from its lowest point of the day against the dollar, trading at $1.4943. That still marks a very substantial 1.7% decline from its strongest level of the day. The euro was trading at GBP0.9021, marking a rise of 0.6%.

The pound was still hovering around its lowest point of the day against the Canadian dollar, at C$1.5632. Similarly, it was down at A$1.6623 against the Australian dollar.

[strike](JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      80.2       1.5642      0.8712 
               OPEN      79.7       1.5408      0.8746 
              10 AM      79.4       1.5364      0.8783 
               NOON      79.5       1.5384      0.8774 
               2 PM 
               4 PM 
 

 


February 19, 2010 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)[/strike]

      (JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      77.9       1.5224      0.8965 
               OPEN      77.6       1.5136      0.9001 
              10 AM      77.5       1.5132      0.9014 
               NOON      76.5       1.4876      0.9104 
               2 PM      76.8       1.4926      0.9068 
               4 PM      77.1       1.4939      0.9023 
 


    (END) Dow Jones Newswires 
    March 01, 2010 11:01 ET (16:01  GMT)

http://www.bondweb.co.kr/menu01/sub04/prime_content.asp?idx=6223618&page=13&pageIdx=6223631&pageDirection=F&gubun1=0&gubun2=&keyword=








http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126745539498353847.html?mod=djembdr_h

nico26

iltisman wrote: »

en-route to 85c

Hope so I get paid in dollars lol

eslick

"Howard Archer is chief UK & European economist at IHS Global Insight: he believes $1.40 will be the floor for the pound.
The pound is likely to remain under pressure and prone to sharp moves until the general election is out of the way. Indeed, we suspect it could move trade as low as $1.43 although we do not expect it to fall below $1.40."

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=500443&in_page_id=3

neilbond007

nico26 wrote: »

Hope so I get paid in dollars lol

Now that's a very selfish point of view. One I happen to agree with

sabretoothtigger

Sterling Index At 1600 GMT 
      (JAN 2005=100)     INDEX      GBP/USD     EUR/GBP 
     PREVIOUS CLOSE      77.1       1.4939      0.9023 
               OPEN      76.6       1.4897      0.9083 
              10 AM      77.0       1.4938      0.9029 
               NOON      77.0       1.4970      0.9043 
               2 PM      76.8       1.4971      0.9076 
               4 PM      76.7       1.4927      0.9086 
 
[FONT=verdana]March 02, 2010 11:01 ET (16:01 GMT)[/FONT]

sterling also fell by more than 1.7 per cent against the Zimbabwe dollar

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7046086.ece