Halifax -1.7% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 22.6% down from peak.

JayScottGreenspan

mitchaa wrote: »

Come on then Einstein, please explain as we have done this to death.

Both indexes are automatically seasonally adjusted, i.e Nationwide reported a drop of 0.9% for April when the actual figures increased. (i.e seasonal adjustment)

The figures are there in black and white for all to see;)

How do you make -2.6% out of £151,861 and £153,048, when i was taught maths at school you divide the smaller number by the bigger number and multiply by 100%

The £ prices Nationwide quote are not seasonally adjusted, thought the index is. This is what Nationwide's last report says:

Index (SA)
Dec 08 308.1
Apr 09 300.0

Index (NSA)
Dec 08 305.3
Apr 09 302.9

Average Price
Dec 08 £153,048
Apr 09 £151,861
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2009.pdf

Which implies the following changes:
Index (SA) -2.6%
Index (NSA) -0.8%
Average Price -0.8%

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Unless the figure is a positive percentage yes?

May I remind you how you were making us all focus on the percentage last time Nationwide released figures? The percentage that was twisted into a positve?

I can't keep up with how we have to look at each set differently, depending on the the figure itself.

Graham you are not on a level playing field with that statement, you are very weak with your arguments:rolleyes:

I made an issue with the Nationwide release as the press were reporting a drop in house prices when in fact there was a rise. (True or False?)

In this case, house prices dropped as did the % so what can i possibly argue about? I dont argue black is white like some of you bears

I think your point would be a lender releasing their data showing an increase in % terms when in fact they showed a decrease in £££ terms but i dont think that has ever happened yet so im not quite sure why you are pointing at me here

I may gloat at a positive month but i always use the figures that you would be required to borrow rather than the % figure MOM that is seasonally adjusted.

I do quote % from peak though as does everyone as that is how we measure the scope of this fall.

luvpump

What suprises me most is that some people are "Suprised" by these falls, you have to look at the Big Picture, a MASSIVE asset Bubble has been Burst & will take many more months if not years to truly shake itself out..

This Idea we can have a relatively short Recession & then everything will get back to the way things were, is just fantasy, come the end of the year when its Dark, wet & cold, unemployment at Circa 3 Million & probably still Rising !! ... Imagine what the sentiment will be in the Housing market will be then ??
The Bottom line is that the relentless Bull run of the last Decade & the Obsession Brits have with Property is OVER...., & it probably wont return in my Lifetime ...

the_ash_and_the_oak

luvpump wrote: »

What suprises me most is that some people are "Suprised" by these falls, you have to look at the Big Picture, a MASSIVE asset Bubble has been Burst & will take many more months if not years to truly shake itself out..

This Idea we can have a relatively short Recession & then everything will get back to the way things were, is just fantasy, come the end of the year when its Dark, wet & cold, unemployment at Circa 3 Million & probably still Rising !! ... Imagine what the sentiment will be in the Housing market will be then ??
The Bottom line is that the relentless Bull run of the last Decade & the Obsession Brits have with Property is OVER...., & it probably wont return in my Lifetime ...

Surprised because I think we're after stage one but before stage two of the crash. Seeing this as a stasis period w reduced repossessions and sales. Not really expecting to see bigger falls again till next year imo

JayScottGreenspan

Remember when people used to say their house made more money than they did?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8035363.stm

It means that the average UK property is now worth... £33,264 less than a year ago.

mitchaa

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

The £ prices Nationwide quote are not seasonally adjusted, thought the index is. This is what Nationwide's last report says:

Index (SA)
Dec 08 308.1
Apr 09 300.0

Index (NSA)
Dec 08 305.3
Apr 09 302.9

Average Price
Dec 08 £153,048
Apr 09 £151,861
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2009.pdf

Which implies the following changes:
Index (SA) -2.6%
Index (NSA) -0.8%
Average Price -0.8%

JayScottGreenspan...Remind me where i can borrow 308.1/300 and 305.3/302.9 as to me they are just meaningless numbers. The numbers with the £ signs in front of them are all that matters to anyone borrowing I agree the index may have dropped 2.6% but the fact of the matter is Nationwide are talling me that i need to borrow £151,861 to buy the average house now, just like they told me i needed to borrow £153,048 in December. (That is a 0.78% difference)

If they have never seasonally adjusted them in the past, then it makes not the blindest bit of difference if they don't do so now.

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

JayScottGreenspan...Remind me where i can borrow 308.1/300 and 305.3/302.9 as to me they are just meaningless numbers. The numbers with the £ signs in front of them are all that matters to anyone borrowing I agree the index may have dropped 2.6% but the fact of the matter is Nationwide are talling me that i need to borrow £151,861 to buy the average house now, just like they told me i needed to borrow £153,048 in December. (That is a 0.78% difference)

If they have never seasonally adjusted them in the past, then it makes not the blindest bit of difference if they don't do so now.

You realise this isn't about Nationwide?

I know it provided a smaller fall and all that jazz. But this is about halifax.

You keep talking about nationwide and how much you will need to borrow. Indeed, go try to borrow it, cus I bet you can't.

skap7309

luvpump wrote: »

What suprises me most is that some people are "Suprised" by these falls, you have to look at the Big Picture, a MASSIVE asset Bubble has been Burst & will take many more months if not years to truly shake itself out..

This Idea we can have a relatively short Recession & then everything will get back to the way things were, is just fantasy, come the end of the year when its Dark, wet & cold, unemployment at Circa 3 Million & probably still Rising !! ... Imagine what the sentiment will be in the Housing market will be then ??
The Bottom line is that the relentless Bull run of the last Decade & the Obsession Brits have with Property is OVER...., & it probably wont return in my Lifetime ...

Here, here. Im am glad i am not the only one who can see the only obvious way this can go.

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You realise this isn't about Nationwide?

I know it provided a smaller fall and all that jazz. But this is about halifax.

You keep talking about nationwide and how much you will need to borrow. Indeed, go try to borrow it, cus I bet you can't.

Of course Graham, but i do believe the actual 1.7% figure is what the £££ actually dropped by so im not arguing about the figures here.

As to your statement at the bottom, I doubt i could borrow a further £150k to purchase a 2nd home on top of my existing mortgage No, but if i were a FTB then why wouldn't i be able to

themanbearpig

mitchaa wrote: »

JayScottGreenspan...Remind me where i can borrow 308.1/300 and 305.3/302.9 as to me they are just meaningless numbers. The numbers with the £ signs in front of them are all that matters to anyone borrowing I agree the index may have dropped 2.6% but the fact of the matter is Nationwide are talling me that i need to borrow £151,861 to buy the average house now, just like they told me i needed to borrow £153,048 in December. (That is a 0.78% difference)

If they have never seasonally adjusted them in the past, then it makes not the blindest bit of difference if they don't do so now.

Now here is an upset bull clutching at straws.