Halifax -1.7% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 22.6% down from peak.

mitchaa

However saying that, i do believe i have seen Halifax SA them mid month and when we get to the new release the previous release figures have changed, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse, but we done this Nationwide SA argument a few days ago where they reported a drop when in fact there appeared to be a rise.

Just keep your eyes on the figures rather than the %, as the figures are the amounts that you will be required to borrow

mitchaa

stephen163 wrote: »

Or, rather than using the best case scenario Nationwide figures, let's use the previous 12 months of Halifax. Average house lost £33k in 12 months, rent is £750*12 = £9k. Plus you need to factor in mortgage payments and all the other costs assocciated with home ownership. Suddenly, the picture's not so rosy...

I agree with you, but i suspect there will be a lot of potential buyers out there doing their maths at the moment and looking to buy within the next 6mths or so.
Secure an IR now before they rocket wiping out any further price drops in payment terms, i.e £150k now at 4%, or £135k in a years time at 8%

If we were to only see 5% drops this year for example, surely the differences are going to be negligible either way. (Nationwide is supportive so far in 4/12)

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

Just keep your eyes on the figures rather than the %, as the figures are the amounts that you will be required to borrow

Unless the figure is a positive percentage yes?

May I remind you how you were making us all focus on the percentage last time Nationwide released figures? The percentage that was twisted into a positve?

I can't keep up with how we have to look at each set differently, depending on the the figure itself.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Unless the figure is a positive percentage yes?

May I remind you how you were making us all focus on the percentage last time Nationwide released figures? The percentage that was twisted into a positve?

I can't keep up with how we have to look at each set differently, depending on the month.

No, we were looking at the ACTUAL average house price FIGURE, not the percentage

stephen163

mitchaa wrote: »

They are seasonally adjusted though;)

The -0.8% figure you come up with isn't based on the SA figures. The SA figure is in the form of a monthly index with a base of 100 (Q1 '93). This monthly index dropped from 308.1 in Dec '08 to 300 in April '9, so indeed a drop of -2.6% SA. The £153,048 and £151,861 figures are NON-seasonally adjusted.

the_ash_and_the_oak

mitchaa wrote: »

I agree with you, but i suspect there will be a lot of potential buyers out there doing their maths at the moment and looking to buy within the next 6mths or so.
Secure an IR now before they rocket wiping out any further price drops in payment terms, i.e £150k now at 4%, or £135k in a years time at 8%

kinda agree w this to an extent. once IR goes up feel its going to reduce the amount FTBs will be able to borrow (though I feel the doubling of rates in your example may have a touch more than a 10% effect tbh) - don't really see it getting any easier anytime soon. But otoh not really much for sale right now imo - don't see supply increasing to any really degree in near future either imo

Jonbvn

mitchaa wrote: »

I fail to see the link personally?

It's a confidence issue. If you think there is the slightest chance you will lose your job, then you are unlikely to want to buy a house and/or trade up.

inspector_monkfish

dervish wrote: »

I would say its quite possible, actually.

Whether it is deliberate or not is another question. I learnt many years ago not to simply believe as fact everything the media tell us.

Damn, you're smart !!

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

No, we were looking at the ACTUAL average house price FIGURE, not the percentage

I know, but the thread is still there, with people adamant on spinning the -0.4% into +0.9%.

Howcome we had to concentrate on the percentage that time and change the official one? But this time, were not supposed to concentrate on the percentage.

It's mighty confusing keeping up with how different things have to be calculated differently for you lot to be happy!

Anyway, -1.7 is bigger than anyone on here predicted as far as I'm aware. I must update my sig

the_ash_and_the_oak

its for reason stated in Mitchaa's post I don't really feel we'll such large falls this year. stage two (w effect of higher rates for new buyers) some time away. stasis till then (May's surprising fall notwithstanding - prob just catching up w the others and evening out the discrepancy tbh)