Halifax -1.7% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 22.6% down from peak.

mitchaa

ukcarper wrote: »

Would you say land registry is most accurate?

Of course, but i think LR are showing smaller falls from peak so far. Not sure about their 2009 drops so far, not looked at them.

ukcarper

Land registry average house price is £152,875 which is less than halifax and is also 3 months older more in line with nationwide

mitchaa

Mini_Bear wrote: »

My argument is currently "how can house prices rise with 1m more people expected to be unemployed by end of yr?" Oh well!

I fail to see the link personally?

1m living in council houses or 1m individual homeowners? If they are in HA/Council homes then rising unemplyment wont make any difference to the private housing market as their benefits will pay their rent.

The same could be said about private homes aswell, we have ISMI to pay mortgage interest and even if 1 person out of a couple is made unemployed they could possibly still manage to afford their mortgage.

So its a very very small point in my eyes, the majority will keep their jobs, and their homes and rising unemployment will have a negligible impact.

JayScottGreenspan

mitchaa wrote: »

Interesting, 2009 drops so far then...

Nationwide

Dec 08...£153,048
Apr 09...£151,861

4 Month reduction of 0.78%

Halifax

Dec 08 £160,861
Apr 09 £154,716

4 Month reduction of 3.82%

Those Halifax figures are seasonally adjusted while the Nationwide ones are not.

I make the changes from Dec 08 to Apr 09 as follows:
_____NSA__SA_
Hal -0.8% -3.8%
NW -0.8% -2.6%

mitchaa

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

Those Halifax figures are seasonally adjusted while the Nationwide ones are not.

I make the changes from Dec 08 to Apr 09 as follows:
_____NSA__SA_
Hal -0.8% -3.8%
NW -0.8% -2.6%

Come on then Einstein, please explain as we have done this to death.

Both indexes are automatically seasonally adjusted, i.e Nationwide reported a drop of 0.9% for April when the actual figures increased. (i.e seasonal adjustment)

The figures are there in black and white for all to see;)

How do you make -2.6% out of £151,861 and £153,048, when i was taught maths at school you divide the smaller number by the bigger number and multiply by 100%

Dan:_4

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

Those Halifax figures are seasonally adjusted while the Nationwide ones are not.

I make the changes from Dec 08 to Apr 09 as follows:
_____NSA__SA_
Hal -0.8% -3.8%
NW -0.8% -2.6%

errr........yes they are

ukcarper

mitchaa wrote: »

I fail to see the link personally?

1m living in council houses or 1m individual homeowners? If they are in HA/Council homes then rising unemplyment wont make any difference to the private housing market as their benefits will pay their rent.

The same could be said about private homes aswell, we have ISMI to pay mortgage interest and even if 1 person out of a couple is made unemployed they could possibly still manage to afford their mortgage.

So its a very very small point in my eyes, the majority will keep their jobs, and their homes and rising unemployment will have a negligible impact.

Apart from the lack of mortgages isn’t one of the main reasons FTBs aren’t buying the fact that house prices are dropping. I am a great believer in home ownership but if I was a FTB I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy at the moment.

mitchaa

ukcarper wrote: »

Land registry average house price is £152,875 which is less than halifax and is also 3 months older more in line with nationwide

LR upto date up until March 2009, but i agree all 3 indexes are close £151-£155k

mdb99jh

No one has done this yet so I thought I might...

TIMBER!!!

mitchaa

ukcarper wrote: »

Apart from the lack of mortgages isn’t one of the main reasons FTBs aren’t buying the fact that house prices are dropping. I am a great believer in home ownership but if I was a FTB I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy at the moment.

Look at the Nationwide index, so far house prices have dropped 0.78% this year.
Typical rent on an average house i suspect would be in the region of £750pm, so according to the Nationwide you could have spent £3000 in rental so far this year but only lost £1200 off the price of an average home.

Extrapolate that further over the year meaning £9k spent in rental and £3600 lost in house value. No, im not suggesting that we will only see £3600 falls this year, im just saying what's true so far in respects to the Nationwide index and hypotetically extrapolating it for the remainder 8mths of the year

Yes we will see further falls, probably ITRO of 5-10% in my opinion.