Halifax -1.7% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 22.6% down from peak.

ad9898_3

Just released. Spring bounce next month then, I was sure it would be up today, I will be right at some point, just like the Daily Express.

inspector_monkfish

ad9898 wrote: »

Just released. Spring bounce next month then, I was sure it would be up today, I will be right at some point, just like the Daily Express.

well it was forecast to be -0.9%, so -1.7% is almost double expectations.

mystic_trev

http://www.forexfactory.com/

inspector_monkfish

09:00 06May09 RNS-REG-HBOS PLC Halifax House Price Index
http://pdf.reuters.com/Regnews/regnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20090506:RnsF7475R
.
RNS Number : 7475R

HBOS PLC

06 May 2009

Halifax House Price Index


National Index April2009



All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100)
Monthly Change -1.7% Annual Change -17.7%
Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) £154,716


Commenting, Martin Ellis, Economist, said:

"The average UK house price declined by 1.7% in April, slightly less than the
1.9% monthly fall in the previous month.

The house price to earnings ratio - a key measure of housing affordability - is
at its lowest level since the autumn of 2002 at 4.26. Mortgage rate cuts have
reduced monthly payments for the average existing borrower by £111 since October
2008, also boosting affordability. Mortgage approvals remain at historically
very low levels.

Rising unemployment, low consumer confidence and the reduced availability of
credit are all expected to exert downward pressure on the housing market over
the next few months. As a result, further house price declines are likely."


Key Points

* House prices declined by 1.7% in April. This was slightly less than the 1.9% fall in March. The UK average price has returned to where it was five years' ago in April2004 (£154,511).
* House prices in April were 17.7% lower on an annual basis.

* The house price to earnings ratio - a key affordability measure - is at its lowest for more than six years. The house price to average earnings ratio has declined by 27% from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to an estimated 4.26 in April 2009. The ratio is at its lowest level since September 2002 (4.14). The long-term average is 4.0.

* Prices in the three months to April compared to the previous three months - an indicator of the underlying trend - were 3.3% lower. This is slightly below the quarterly rate of decline of 5-6% recorded consistently between June 2008 and January 2009.

* Mortgage debt servicing costs for all borrowers have eased in recent months. Monthly repayments for the average mortgage borrower have fallen from a peak of 26.9% of average gross household income in October 2008 to 22.0% in March 2009. The decrease in the average mortgage rate paid by existing borrowers from 5.82% in October 2008 to 3.83% in March 2009 (source: Bank of England) is the main cause of this reduction. A borrower with the average outstanding mortgage of £107,000 has seen their monthly repayments fall by £111 since October 2008.

* Tentative signs of a stabilisation in activity albeit at a very low level. Bank of England industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase - a leading indicator of completed house sales - increased by 19% between the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Approvals in March, at 39,230, were the highest since May 2008, but were still 34% lower than in March 2008.

* Temporary increase in the lowest stamp duty threshold from £125,000 to £175,000 extended to the end of the year announced in the Budget. According to Halifax estimates, around 45,500 homebuyers in England and Wales (26% of the total) were exempt from paying stamp duty over the five months between September 2008 and January 2009 because the threshold was £175,000 rather than £125,000. Nearly six in every ten (57%) home sales during the period were below £175,000 compared with three in ten (31%) below £125,000.

* Increasing the lowest stamp duty threshold has benefited buyers in all regions, but it has had a more pronounced impact outside the south east. For example, only 18% of total sales were below £175,000 in London during the period September 2008 to January 2009 compared to 79% in the North.

PasturesNew

Good News: Every day your house is getting closer to what it's really worth!

lostinrates

TBH I'm very surprised.

Dan:_4

Signature updated.

The ball point average house price figure is still higher then Nationwide and Land Registry for some reason.

ad9898_3

It seems people maybe wising up to this affordability issue. Affordability 'now' cannot be taken seriously over the course of a 25 year loan, with IR's certain to rise significantly at some point over that cycle, and we as a consumer getting poorer with wage deflation 'now' and huge tax increases just over the horizon.

Over the medium/long term house prices have to come down, you can't change the laws of economics.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

It seems people maybe wising up to this affordability issue. Affordability 'now' cannot be taken seriously over the course of a 25 year loan, with IR's certain to rise significantly at some point over that cycle, and we as a consumer getting poorer with wage deflation 'now' and huge tax increases just over the horizon.

Over the medium/long term house prices have to come down, you can't change the laws of economics.

Your wages are likely to significantly increase over the 25 year mortgage, and as the balance is reduced over the years so will the repayments.

inspector_monkfish

lostinrates wrote: »

TBH I'm very surprised.

whys that then....?

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

Signature updated.

The ball point average house price figure is still higher then Nationwide and Land Registry for some reason.

Good to see you Dan, I was sure they would be up today, but quite taken aback by scale of the figure.