Ok lets place our bets on house prices in 2013

kennyboy66_2

dopester wrote: »

Average house price = £22,000.

Fewer job opportunities, pay-cuts, rising unemployment, an end to the higher lending for a working couple so as to pay more for homes, higher taxes, much lower levels of mortgage financing available. Stricter borrowing criteria for mortgages, reluctance to lend on falling assets - baby boomers retiring / pensioners dying, businesses failing/liquidation/selling homes. Banks failed or being propped up. The list just goes on and on.

Where many homes trebled in value during the credit-feast, powers of leverage are coming in to play to create losses that might melt your mind.

I do love your nonsense.

However if we are being deeply cynical then "pensioners dying" (presuming you mean at a faster rate than normal) would actually be a good thing for the economy.

The pensioners who rattle round in large detached houses are vastly out-numbered by those who effectivly have no meaningful assets.
50% of pensioners have less than £6k in savings.

However, it does amaze me if people really think house prices will be above current levels in 2013. They are still falling, and if you look at the 1990's the 'stagnation' part of the housing cycle lasted at least 3 years. Inflation then masked the fact that nominal stagnation meant real falls.

I'd go for average price between £125k of £135k.

geoffky

when this show is all over 50% will be overshot...

Jennifer_Jane

Here's what will actually happen - I guarantee it:

My house - -20%
The house I want to buy (a downsized house by the way) +50%.

Oh dear!

Jen

ShelleyC_2

I reckon ~35% from peak.

Much worse in certain areas / properties (inner cities / flats / new builds) and much less in the houses I'm looking for :rotfl:

asbokid

Has the "quantitative easing" policy of the BofE been priced into the housing market predictions?

Maybe house prices are going to flat line or perhaps even rise (if not in line with incomes) so as to keep up with the hyperinflationary policy of the central bankers?

RDB

Despite the near zero interest rates and the endless printing of
money, i.e. "Quantitative Easing", we have been seeing lately we don't
see rampant inflation, or hyperinflation, like in the German Weimar
Republic or in more recent Zimbabwe. How come?
A recent article published on Global Research talks about the real
reasons for the hyperinflation in both pre-WW2 Germany and Zimbabwe.
There is much more to the story than just the endless printing of
money.
The article can be found here:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13673
According to this article, the US, the UK, Japan are all financing
their debts by printing money. For example, Britain is even already
funding 65% of its expenses with "seigniorage", i.e. printing of,
while pre-WW2 Germany, the Weimar Republic, never exceeded 50%. So,
the big question is if the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic was
caused by seigniorage, then why don't we see hyperinflation in the UK?
The German currency commissioner for the Weimar Republic, Hjalmar
Schacht, stated the real reason for the hyperinflation in his book
"The Magic of Money" that it actually was caused by foreign investors,
speculators, who would bet on the German mark's decreasing value by
selling it short.

----

Of course, there are more aspects to the story, like who actually
funded Hitler. The rabbit hole is much deeper than this. The question
is how far you are willing to go to find out how deep it is...
But this article gives an interesting aspect as to why we don't yet
see hyperinflation.

tommy75

RDB wrote: »

Despite the near zero interest rates and the endless printing of
money, i.e. "Quantitative Easing", we have been seeing lately we don't
see rampant inflation, or hyperinflation, like in the German Weimar
Republic or in more recent Zimbabwe. How come?
A recent article published on Global Research talks about the real
reasons for the hyperinflation in both pre-WW2 Germany and Zimbabwe.
There is much more to the story than just the endless printing of
money.
The article can be found here:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13673
According to this article, the US, the UK, Japan are all financing
their debts by printing money. For example, Britain is even already
funding 65% of its expenses with "seigniorage", i.e. printing of,
while pre-WW2 Germany, the Weimar Republic, never exceeded 50%. So,
the big question is if the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic was
caused by seigniorage, then why don't we see hyperinflation in the UK?
The German currency commissioner for the Weimar Republic, Hjalmar
Schacht, stated the real reason for the hyperinflation in his book
"The Magic of Money" that it actually was caused by foreign investors,
speculators, who would bet on the German mark's decreasing value by
selling it short.

----

Of course, there are more aspects to the story, like who actually
funded Hitler. The rabbit hole is much deeper than this. The question
is how far you are willing to go to find out how deep it is...
But this article gives an interesting aspect as to why we don't yet
see hyperinflation.

Which pill should I take? The red or the blue?

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

So in order to keep the averages working out, some areas must have taken much longer to recover?

Very true mewbie, however.......

Watching a UK average and not realising your local area has already turned could mean you miss out.

Watching the UK average and find that your local area has not recovered the same does not mean you have missed out, you still have that oppertunity.

Don't let UK average, mean you are not aware what is happening locally

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

Insolvent banks, huge tax rises, peak oil, interest rates that can only go up will mean the housing market is finished for 10-15 years minimum, and 2007 prices in real inflation adjusted terms will never, ever be back............ and that, is the only good thing that will come out of this crisis.

It is quite possible that 2007 real inflation adjusted prices may never return, but not a certainty, however to be clear, you would be in agreement that 2007 nominal prices WILL return and be superceded by higher prices.

whathavewedone

As a home owner I don't give a stuff about whether my house gets back to real inflation adjusted 2007 prices. Nominal is fine. Not being in negative equity and being in a position to remortgage is all most people care about.