Ok lets place our bets on house prices in 2013

inspector_monkfish

mitchaa wrote: »

You clearly know better, any chance of the winning lotto balls tonight please;)

not at all

from reading your other posts, judging by the way you have your entire life planned out, right up until retirement and beyond, i would have thought it would be you that could supply the lotto winning numbers - every week for the next 50 years

neas

Really the further magnitude is a math equation in my head.


A = Variable associated with economy... A is higher if the economy gets more and more shafted (this is basically unemployment, inflation, no disposable income, no jobs etc etc)

B= Variable associated with stupidity of people to get on the decline as they believe hype from Estate agents etc (Bigger B means more idiots propping up market :P)


Crash = 15% + A% - B%

Ofcourse its more complicated than that but you cant tell what sheep will do sometimes... and eventually people will start buying again even if recession lasts a long time. Although recession will dampen prices for a long time.

neas

Must admit the user who I copied my signature does seem to be displaying a vested interest but this is an opinion poll after all

mitchaa

RDB wrote: »

Very funny post Mitchaa, its even more hilarious when you look under it to see who thanked you and a small `Dan` he he he

You know you guys are on your own in believing the media of late.

So you thin the the cycle that has always happened will not continue this time and the graph that has so steeply gone down of late will suddenly stop now halfway through its decline and actually start going up?

How can anyone be so deluded?

Okay RDB, let's assume bear predictions of sub £100k average prices do come true, does this mean everyone gets richer?

If you have a £2kpm salary and your mortgage cost at peak was £1kpm and £500pm at trough, then you have £500 more disposable income at trough. What do you do with the surplus £500 that you were always used to paying?

Wage deflation down to £1500pm i hear yourself and Dopester say? You find that likely for every working man and woman in the country? Armed forces have just been given a 3% pay rise, so there's 200k people with a higher salary than last years. NHS with their 2% award, accounting for another million or so people with a higher salary than this time last year. Police and FBU with their increases. I myself have just had a min protected rpi award last month, so i agree that some may see wage deflation, but what about the people that do not? Do they just get richer and richer?

You are the 1 that is abusing my views and but i am happily taking your views into account and questioning them without the need to shoot you down as a lunatic that has just escaped from an asylum;)

the_ash_and_the_oak

mitchaa wrote: »

Okay RDB, let's assume bear predictions of sub £100k average prices do come true, does this mean everyone gets richer?

If you have a £2kpm salary and your mortgage cost at peak was £1kpm and £500pm at trough, then you have £500 more disposable income at trough. What do you do with the surplus £500 that you were always used to paying?

Wage deflation down to £1500pm i hear yourself and Dopester say? You find that likely for every working man and woman in the country? Armed forces have just been given a 3% pay rise, so there's 200k people with a higher salary than last years. NHS with their 2% award, accounting for another million or so people with a higher salary than this time last year. Police and FBU with their increases. I myself have just had a min protected rpi award last month, so i agree that some may see wage deflation, but what about the people that do not? Do they just get richer and richer?

You are the 1 that is abusing my views and but i am happily taking your views into account and questioning them without the need to shoot you down as a lunatic that has just escaped from an asylum;)

dont think so really imo. I'm feeling interest rates and (eventually) taxes to take up a higher proportion of wages (also food and fuel) - and feel wage deflation won't take place within jobs but between jobs (partially facilitated via redundancies but also via lower starting salaries)

also agree that those that hold existing jobs on existing salaries during this kind of period will get richer comparatively

RDB

Yes it makes sence that the big falls that havent happened yet wont come until interest rates go back up.

I think house price will keep falling slowly every month for another year. Then when IRs go back up there will be record numbers of repo`s and that HP graph will go into a sharp decline.

By 2013 HP may even be 70% down from peak.

IveSeenTheLight

RDB wrote: »

Not trying to call the bottom just that the last crash took about 6 yrs to pan out.

6 years to pan out on average.
Some areas recovered within one year.
Remember that

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

6 years to pan out on average.
Some areas recovered within one year.
Remember that

So in order to keep the averages working out, some areas must have taken much longer to recover?

whathavewedone

So what if the last crash took 6 years to bottom out? The 80s crash (more severe recession and a better comparison therefore than the 90s crash) bottomed out in less than 2 years. Interest rates were extremely high.

Aha you will say but that was because of inflation!

But hang on, isn't the line meant to be that prices are going to REALLY plummet when we get inflation?

ad9898_3

Insolvent banks, huge tax rises, peak oil, interest rates that can only go up will mean the housing market is finished for 10-15 years minimum, and 2007 prices in real inflation adjusted terms will never, ever be back............ and that, is the only good thing that will come out of this crisis.