Ok lets place our bets on house prices in 2013

tuggy12

jamespmg44 wrote: »

In what way - overly optimistic or pessimistic?

overly pessimistic

mitchaa

In 2013, prices will be higher than what they are now.

2009 - 5-10% drops
2010 - Stagnation +/- 2-3%
2011 - Market is off again as everyone jumps in
2012 - and again
2013 - and again

House prices in 2013, average of around £160-£170k.

Easy.

penguine

tuggy12 wrote: »

overly pessimistic

Why not say what you think then?

It's easy to mock others when you won't put your own opinions on the line.

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

In 2013, prices will be higher than what they are now.

2009 - 5-10% drops
2010 - Stagnation +/- 2-3%
2011 - Market is off again as everyone jumps in
2012 - and again
2013 - and again

House prices in 2013, average of around £160-£170k.

Easy.

Mitchaa, even though I disagree with you on most things, I do like reading your posts, as your arguments are normally sound, however this has to be the most wishful, steaming pile of dung I have read:D. Even if there were piles of FTB'rs out there waiting to pounce, they need cash, lots of it, because the banks only have 60% of what they had this time last year, and when the next wave of failures hits next year, they will have even less.

I do admire your tenacity though.

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

Mitchaa, even though I disagree with you on most things, I do like reading your posts, as your arguments are normally sound, however this has to be the most wishful, steaming pile of dung I have read:D. Even if there were piles of FTB'rs out there waiting to pounce, they need cash, lots of it, because the banks only have 60% of what they had this time last year, and when the next wave of failures hits next year, they will have even less.

I do admire your tenacity though.

As i said, £160-£170k by mid way through 2013:D

The age old argument of banks running out of money and refusing to lend is an urban myth with no truth around its base.

Tell me, what would you do if you walked into the Nationwide and asked for a £150k loan only to be told they had no funds left to lend to you? You would walk next door into a C&G branch and get your £150k there wouldn't you

There is always going to be money there to lend. As soon as the market is flooded, house prices are only going 1 way

It will be different this time round, you can mark my word

Yes i am a loon:p

jamespmg44

tuggy12 wrote: »

overly pessimistic

I think they will be linked much more closely to earnings in the future so with wages remaining stagnant or being cut, i don't see how house prices can rise dramatically again.

dopester

Average house price = £22,000.

Fewer job opportunities, pay-cuts, rising unemployment, an end to the higher lending for a working couple so as to pay more for homes, higher taxes, much lower levels of mortgage financing available. Stricter borrowing criteria for mortgages, reluctance to lend on falling assets - baby boomers retiring / pensioners dying, businesses failing/liquidation/selling homes. Banks failed or being propped up. The list just goes on and on.

Where many homes trebled in value during the credit-feast, powers of leverage are coming in to play to create losses that might melt your mind.

mitchaa

dopester wrote: »

Average house price = £22,000.

Haha brilliant, Homes on credit cards:D

You've been quiet recently Dopester, are you just recuperating after those MOM gains earlier in the year

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

Tell me, what would you do if you walked into the Nationwide and asked for a £150k loan only to be told they had no funds left to lend to you? You would walk next door into a C&G branch and get your £150k there wouldn't you

I think what the banks are doing are forecasting what LTV's would have generally been in place when there was plenty of money, then reducing the LTV's to a point where a huge swathe of the population are priced out, they also have very stringent criteria on who they will lend to, compared to times in the past. They also have you if you have a smaller deposit, by racking the rates up to unaffordable levels.

So what I'm saying is if I walked into a bank to borrow 150k now with 9 other people, the likely outcome is most of those people wouldn't be offered a loan, now compare that to 2 years ago, when they would drag tramps in off the street and give them 100k, and would only require their can of Tennants Super as a deposit.

The money is not there as it once was, and if you were on 15-20k, with a dubious credit history or the like, you would find out for yourself.

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

Tell me, what would you do if you walked into the Nationwide and asked for a £150k loan only to be told they had no funds left to lend to you? You would walk next door into a C&G branch and get your £150k there wouldn't you

You mean the C&G which is currently supported with government / boe money, who in turn got the money from borrowing on the markets and issuing gilts and limited queezing?

The timidity of the banking system appears to have been general and widespread. Indeed the 1939 survey found that over half of the reasons for credit refusals by banks were "bank policy"; only a third were because of "the condition of the borrowing concern."

- Michael A. Bernstein
The Great Depression