Is the GIOL forum worth the risk (with poll)?

donnykebab

Don't understand why this thread hasn't been locked yet.......

but don't most of this 'risks' pointed out in post No 1 also apply to casino operators and bagging and are in addition to the variance you'll encounter ?
(bar the obv sports ones)

mils1234

R00STER00 wrote: »

Rubbish, if you read what I said it is guaranteed.

This is 100% incorrect mathematically. You can flip a fair coin heads 100000000 times in a row, it's just extremely unlikely.

However it is correct practically.

The problem with casinos is that you don't have to be particularily unlucky to lose your deposit on the first 3 or 4 you try. On this board, where some people are in major debt, that could wipe out any starting funds they can muster.

Do you honestly believe there are the same risks when starting out on your first 3 or 4 bookies? Be honest. There isn't.

R00STER00

slimshady2357 wrote: »

This is 100% incorrect mathematically. You can flip a fair coin heads 100000000 times in a row, it's just extremely unlikely.

If this were to happen I would have to take issue with your claims of the coin being fair!

My point still stands - that long term results will tend towards the statistical prediction of expected returns.

Thanatos

R00STER00 wrote: »

If this were to happen I would have to take issue with your claims of the coin being fair!

My point still stands - that long term results will tend towards the statistical prediction of expected returns.

and I think you have just explained very well in your post why the two things are very different. Casino returns can only be "guaranteed" in the long term. Not the short term. Example, I recently signed up for 32red. I won on the opening matched deposit offer and gained nicely, but lost on the £32 reload for April.

Had the above been matched sports betting offers, I would not have run the risk of losing the second deposit.

Obviously neither is 100% risk free as both carry the idiot mistake risk and both carry the welching bookie/casino risk. However, if you take those out of the equation, casinos still have a far bigger risk than matched sports betting.

I am sure long term you have a significantly higher chance of leveling out and profitting on the casinos, but no one single offer is a "safe" as sports matched betting.


On the bright side, I at least understand the purpose of the thread now. Had you posted a little more clearly what your desired topic of debate was, you might have not had such an uphill battle here

littleted999

Just wondering what the site policy here is on using threads as a means to refer multiple "friends" to sites , thus creating long chains of people all linked together.

ive seen a fair few threads where this is the case that have been allowed to reamin open , surely this cant be good practice.

Grizzly2006

I never quite understand the point of questions like this being asked on this site.

Most people who have made a big mistake have long since given up matched betting have long since left the forum.

Yes people do make big mistakes (even it is due to human error ) they do lose large sums of money.

I suspect that more money has been lost than won by people who have started matched betting.
HOWEVER
I also believe that the people CURRENTLY posting on this site have likely won more than they have lost

For people who believe large sums fo money arent lost, check out the threads below. Over 100,000 pounds lost.
I dont believe any of the LOSERS involved are currently posting, I wonder why?

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386063

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386241

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=387925

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386383&highlight=betfair+first+goalscorer

Mariner13

Mmmm I suspect a couple of trolls :rolleyes:

Grizzly2006

Definition of Troll

"Someone who says something that is true but that I do not wish to hear"

Is anything I have said in my previous post incorrect?

Kenwhaler

:eek: Yowzer! Never read into those FGS mistakes!

Big mistake to make. I'm very wary of anything I haven't done before. Hell I've not even dutched properly yet!

But that just backs up my point, that people not doing this by the rules will lose money. People doing Casinos by the rules could still lose money whether they follow perfect strategy or not.

Fella

Grizzly2006 wrote: »

Definition of Troll

"Someone who says something that is true but that I do not wish to hear"

Um, no that isn't actually the definition of a Troll.

Grizzly2006 wrote: »

Is anything I have said in my previous post incorrect?

Yes, this bit for startrers:

Grizzly2006 wrote: »

I suspect that more money has been lost than won by people who have started matched betting.

You appear to be ignoring the fact that the losses from someone who tries MB & loses some dough are finite. Wheras the profits made by everyone who MBs successfully are not.

You also ignore the tons of people who do the "easy" first 1K or 2K then quit.


I suspect if the figures were known that MB profits outnumber losses by a massive ratio, 20:1 at the very least & probably more.