UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

bowlhead99

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I opted for fertilizer rather then thinking about any one crop. however this has not done so well either.

Arguably the savvy investors making money in the last great gold rushes of the 19th century were those in the business of selling shovels and denim workwear.

SXX fell recently, I think thats become cheap if they do get clearance one day. POT is another Ive watched years, otherwise I would just take back my agri fund if market does fall I reckon its a good safe bet for what the world needs more of 5 years from now

I have been in SXX since 6-8p (and happy to have taken some profits in the high teens and mid 20s, in the last couple of years or so!). The price is now a good chunk below where it was at the last fundraising (18p). Seems a lot of work has gone into formalising all their plans and garnering support etc which had moved the price on significantly - but the postponement of their planning permission application with no fixed timeframe is going to spook a lot of people. Actually, before it happened I had thought it might have got rejected providing a welcome further buying opportunity before it was steamrollered through on a nod from the government, national interest and all that - but I wasn't going to put my money where my mouth was and cash out and then potentially miss a strong rise.

However, the huge spanner in the works is a global one, Uralkali effectively pulling out of the cartel with the intention of undercutting them instead, perhaps knocking a quarter off prices. Potash prices were already down from the mid $400s to mid $300s in the second quarter this year on historically low Indian demand and high producer inventories. So a fall to $300 or lower is not very welcome at all. Sure, it will reverse eventually but there are other producers coming on stream in the next few years and SXX was only one of them, and their very existence as a globally significant resource will in itself hold back prices.

Obviously the lower prevailing prices, resulting in credit downgrades for other companies in the industry, will make it harder to get nicely-priced project finance, but also the worsened economic case should make it harder to convince government or national park authorities that there's a great benefit in ripping up bits of countryside. I am in favour of the project of course as once it gets going it will not be nearly so much of a blot on the landscape as people fear and the economic benefits to the country generally (not just me personally as an investor ) are clear.

Worth noting of course that SXX do not have pure potash, their polyhalite is a related competing product but is a mix of other chemicals, some good nutrients and some not. Those other nutrients should to an extent allow it to be sold as a better 'all in one' fertiliser which is a positive (and they have already secured some supply agreements) but there is less potassium in it than in a tonne of pure potash and the sales price per tonne is not expected to be as high as the figures I was mentioning above.

blinko

does anyone know here you can find out the spreads on unit trusts thanks

sabretoothtigger

dam, index reshuffling killed gold mining stocks today. Drops over 10% because NYSE wont list some of them and etf buyers had thought otherwise

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b7ed8e4-1ef4-11e3-b80b-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2f5TGCbIj

sabretoothtigger

I thought this whole deal with Ukraine might stir things up with CAD.

But I think todays +10% was from this broker report

Cadogan Petroleum (LSE: CAD.L - news) : Cantor Fitzgerald initiates with a target price of 51p and a buy recommendation.

on quadruple volume

[Deleted User]

anyone else having to deal with vod shares? I had to make a decision today re the coporate action and I couldn`t get any advice via the net so I sold this am, wrt my charts, for 20% profit and a good chunk at that. Now got to find something else but no littlies as I have used up all the risk exposure allowance in the sipp. I`ll have to do my data trawling yet again, such a potch and will probably put it in 4 stocks as I was rather top heavy in vod

edit: already decided and have used all the cash to invest in 2 miners anto and blt. Charts look good and there is a new lot of optimism building so hey, nothing ventured

another edit: I have been busy adjusting my asset allocation in the sipp, bearing in mind that it is vested and dh has retired so no extra income from work any more. Hence back to a better balance with a bit of excitement via big miners and just 2 very small holdings in littlies. I sold everything that might have given me a sleepless night and am mainly in ftse 100 cos with decent divis as they pay for the yearly pension. I bought 3 big supermarkets, added to a couple of my existing defensive holdings and first time ever bought bats. So now my breakdown is 67% defensive, 17% sensitive and 16% cyclical and that is enough excitement in there for now

over and out and back to knitting

sabretoothtigger

^^ Only in a tracker. I noticed VOD down a bit but 190 to 170 is my estimate for a proper floor

Changes in FTSE :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10595031/How-the-FTSE-100-has-changed-since-its-peak-in-1999.html

cloud_dog

didn't want this thread to die away so posted here


Any one any thoughts on Essar..... A punt for anyone???

sabretoothtigger

Seems opaque, hard to judge and its majority owned by its giant conglomerate which in turn is controlled by a family, add in Indian nonsense politics and its anyones guess.

I just go on the shares and they are weak, no sign of anything. They could spike out of no where though.
Theres some ongoing court case or appeal? I cant remember but they got fined for being late after a tropical typhoon set back their power station, something like that. That could be an influence
Oil has recovered some from its lows, does that help Essar especially. Emerging markets are not popular and so the share unpopular on every front


Good bounce in USA should make ftse rise on monday. Intel and apple seem so cheap, thats probably far easier to judge

cloud_dog

I am intrigued by them just from a TA perspective and have been wondering about a 'punt'.

Everything you say is correct. The other thing that I don't like is that they earn money in $, report in rupees, and the share price is in £. Now, what is the possibility of exchange rates impacting that lot.

I'll monitor, if they come back to 50p I might (BIG MIGHT) have a punt. More like betting than investing.

Thrugelmir

Markets have me in two minds at the moment. The big corporates that are reporting are fairly flat on the whole. Never thought I see GSK become an income stock. Recent movements suggest the banks aren't going to report well.

So it's back to digging around in the minnows pool. Small well run UK AIM stocks where the business is transparent and the accounts hold no mystery.